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Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Live Stream & Betting Tips - Arnaldi to Upset the Odds at the French Open

john-eastwood
John Eastwood
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Last updated: Thu 28 May 2026 23:21
Matteo Arnaldi, after a shaky start to the season, has regained form by impressing at the Cagliari Challenger and winning a tough first-round clash at Roland Garros. Stefanos Tsitsipas, on the other hand, is struggling with inconsistency and mental fragility, despite past successes. Key stats show Arnaldi as a potential upset candidate, especially given Tsitsipas’ recent issues. Arnaldi is favored to reach the third round, with odds reflecting his resurgence. Watch the French Open match live with our comprehensive streaming guide.
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John Eastwood 28 May 2026
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  • Arnaldi has won 8 of his previous 9 matches
  • Tsitsipas is close to dropping out of the Top 100
  • I am backing Arnaldi at big odds at the French Open
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Matteo Arnaldi Stefanos Tsitsipas
Stefanos Tsitsipas and Matteo Arnaldi met at the 2024 French Open (Getty)

Stefanos Tsitsipas' mentality is highly questionable and the Greek can’t be trusted as a favourite here. Matteo Arnaldi has done enough to suggest he can upset the odds at Roland Garros.


 Matteo Arnaldi Stefanos Tsitsipas
Nationality Italy Greece
Age 25 (22 February 2001) 27 (12 August 1998)
Height 6'1" (1.85m) 6'4" (1.93m)
Plays Right-Handed Right-Handed
Ranking 104 79
Career High 30 (August 2024) 3 (January 2018)
ATP Tour Titles 0 12
French Open Best Result Fourth Round (2024) Runner-Up (2021)

HTH


Stefanos Tsitsipas is 1-0 against Matteo Arnaldi.

YearEventSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
2024 Roland Garros Clay R16 Tsitsipas 3-6 7-6 6-2 6-2

Matteo Finding Form


Matteo Arnaldi had a terrible start to the year, losing eight of his opening ten matches and dropping out of the Top 100. He regained confidence by winning the Cagliari Challenger. 

The Italian took that form to Rome where he defeated Jaume Munar and Alex de Minaur. He went close against Rafael Jodar in the third round, saving 3/10 break points in a 3 sets defeat.

Arnaldi came through a tough clash at Roland Garros, getting past Tallon Griekspoor 6-7 6-3 7-6 6-3 in four hours. He won 65% of his 2nd serves and saved all five break points, hitting 61 winners and 34 unforced errors.

Tsitsipas Slipping Down the Rankings


Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Taylor Fritz, Daniil Medvedev and Alex de Minaur on hard courts to sneak back into the Top 50. He got to one quarter-final which came in Doha.

The Greek lost his opening two matches on clay but went deeper in Madrid, blowing two match points in a 6-7 7-6 7-6 fourth round defeat to Casper Ruud. He disappointed after that, going out in the first round in Rome and second round in Geneva.

The 27-year-old hasn’t been tested at Roland Garros, leading 6-2 3-0 when Alexandre Muller retired.

Verdict

Matteo Arnaldi has picked up his form and came through a tough first round clash at Roland Garros. The odds are way too short on Stefanos Tsitsipas, Arnaldi favoured to reach the third round.

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