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Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien Live Stream & Betting Tips - Jodar to Win in 3 Sets at ATP Rome

john-eastwood
Editor
Last updated: Mon 11 May 2026 17:31
Rafael Jodar faces Learner Tien in a high-stakes Italian Open match. Jodar, currently world No. 34, has won 12 of his last 14 matches and claimed his first ATP title in Marrakech. Tien, world No. 21, has struggled on clay but recently improved, boosting his record to 9-13 on the surface. While Jodar is favored, Tien's recent form suggests a competitive encounter. The recommendation is to back Jodar to win in 3 sets. Fans can watch via free live streaming platforms.
John Eastwood 11 May 2026
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  • Jodar has won 12 of his last 14 matches
  • Tien’s clay court record has improved to 9-13
  • I am backing Jodar to get through in 3 sets
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Rafael Jodar
Rafael Jodar has a 23-8 record on clay (Getty)

Rafael Jodar needed 3 sets to get past Matteo Arnaldi and Learner Tien appears to be improving on clay. I think Jodar will get through in Rome, but I might not be as easy as the odds suggest.


Rafael Jodar Learner Tien
Nationality Spain United States
Age 19 (17 September 2006) 20 (2 December 2005)
Height 6'3" (1.91m) 5'11" (1.80m)
Plays Right-Handed Left-Handed
World Ranking 34 21
Career High 34 (May 2026) 21 (March 2026)
ATP Tour Titles 1 1
2026 ATP Tour Titles 1 0
Grand Slam Titles 0 0
ATP Rome Best Result First Appearance Second Round (2025)

HTH


Rafael Jodar is 1-0 against Learner Tien.

YearEventSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
2025 Next Gen Finals Indoor Hard RR Jodar 1-4 4-3 1-4 4-2 4-3

Jodar Closing in on Top 20


Rafael Jodar has risen from 165 to 34 in the rankings this year, winning his first ATP Tour title in Marrakech. He went deep in Barcelona, cruising into the semi-finals where he lost in 3 sets to Arthur Fils. 

The 19-year-old is coming off another solid performance in Madrid. He beat Alex de Minaur and Joao Fonseca on his way to the quarter-finals where he went down 6-2 7-6 to Jannik Sinner.

The Spaniard defeated Nuno Borges 7-6 6-4 in his opening match in Rome. He got through a long clash against Matteo Arnaldi, saving 1/5 break points in a 6-1 4-6 6-3 victory. 

Tien Improving on Clay


Learner Tien was consistent on hard courts to close in on the Top 20. He got to the quarter-finals at the Australian Open and semi-finals in Delray Beach.

The 20-year-old beat Ben Shelton and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Indian Wells before a convincing quarter-final defeat to Jannik Sinner. It was enough to take the youngster to World No.21.

Tien has not enjoyed playing on clay, and that continued with early exits in Houston and Madrid. He lost in straight sets to Roman Andres Burruchaga and Adolfo Daniel Vallejo.

The American has shown some improvement in Rome, starting with a 6-2 6-1 win against Damir Dzumhur. He came back to beat Alexander Bublik 4-6 6-3 7-5, hitting 36 winners and 31 unforced errors.

Verdict

Learner Tien has improved to 9-13 on clay and took Rafael Jodar all the way at the Next Gen Finals in December. I am backing Jodar to win in 3 sets in Rome.

Best Bet1: Rafael Jodar Win 2-1 Set Betting @11/4 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Rafael Jodar Win 2-1
Set Betting
@11/4 - 1 Unit
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john-eastwood
John Eastwood

Sports Editor • 20+ years betting experience

Graduated from the University of Portsmouth in 2008 with a BA in English Literature before completing MA in Journalism. Began his career as a sports journalist in London before moving to the Middle East to work as a sports editor for national media companies in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Favourite Sports: Tennis, Boxing, Golf.


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Rafael Jodar v Learner Tien

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