Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs AFL Elimination Final Tips - Dogs the value in low-scoring game
The 2026 AFL Elimination Final between the Adelaide Crows and Western Bulldogs is shaping up as a tight contest. Adelaide holds the home advantage and strong recent form, but the Bulldogs' defensive improvements and key midfielders make them tough opponents. The expert prediction leans towards a close and lower-scoring match, with both teams' captains—Marcus Bontempelli and Jordan Dawson—expected to shine. Betting tips include the Bulldogs to stay within 13.5 points and the match total going under 167.5 points.
- Bulldogs tipped to stay within 13.5-point line
- Total points likely to stay under 167.5
- Both teams’ captains (Bontempelli & Dawson) expected to have strong performances
- Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs Elimination Final Verdict
- Head to Head Stats
- Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
- Western Bulldogs Form Analysis
- Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs Team News
Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs Elimination Final Verdict
Western Bulldogs are value to take the fight to the Adelaide Crows in the last of the Elimination Finals. The Bulldogs' ability to restrict opposition scoring across the past 10 matches means the +13.5-point line is the best bet. A tactical match should mean a lower-scoring contest too.
- The Western Bulldogs defeated Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval earlier this season.
- The Bulldogs have conceded the lowest amount of points of any side in their past 10 matches.
- Marcus Bontempelli had 32 disposals last weekend.
- Jordan Dawson has had 25+ disposals in his past three matches against the Bulldogs.
Head to Head Stats
Adelaide took out the Round 14 fixture this season by 57 points at Marvel Stadium, but the Bulldogs were winners at Adelaide Oval by six points back in Round 2.
The Crows have won three of the past four between the two sides and three of four at Adelaide Oval.
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
Adelaide finished sixth on the ladder with a 15-8 win-loss record, avoiding the wildcard round.
The Crows have won six of their past eight matches and their form at Adelaide Oval has been particularly strong, winning nine of their past 10 at the venue.
Their record against top-10 opposition stands at 6-7, however, leaving a question over how their strong finish will translate against the better sides in September.
The Crows rounded out the home-and-away season with a 56-point win over GWS, piling on 157 points in their highest score of the season.
Western Bulldogs Form Analysis
The Western Bulldogs finished eighth with a 13-9-1 record before surviving their wildcard final against Collingwood by three points.
That followed a 21-point victory over Melbourne and a draw against Carlton, meaning their past three matches have all come against top-10 opposition.
Their season record against top-eight sides stands at 5-7, although only three of their past 10 matches against top-eight opposition have resulted in wins.
The Bulldogs were the AFL's highest-scoring side last season but have developed a much stronger defensive edge in 2026. They have conceded just 78 points per game across their past 10 matches, the lowest figure in the competition over that period, while averaging 81 themselves.
Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs Team News
Adelaide's Zac Taylor will miss after suffering a hamstring injury against GWS, with Callum Ah Chee in line to return after being managed in Round 24.
James Peatling missed the Giants match with hip and groin soreness and will push to be available, while Jordon Butts will need to prove his fitness after an ankle injury.
For the Dogs, Matthew Kennedy will miss the Elimination Final after suffering a concussion against Collingwood and entering the AFL's concussion protocols.
The Bulldogs otherwise came through the wildcard in reasonable shape, with Tim English successfully returning from his knee injury and Aaron Naughton getting through the match after his recent ankle issue.
Tom Liberatore remains unavailable following knee surgery, while Sam Darcy and Riley Garcia are out for the season.
Verdict
Bulldogs to stay under the line with the total points to stay under. The respective captains are backed to have big performances.
Western Bulldogs +13.5
Line
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Under 167.5
Total Points
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Marcus Bontempelli
To Have 25+ disposals
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Jordan Dawson
To Have 25+ disposals
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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