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Geelong Cats vs Carlton AFL Elimination Final Tips - Blues wild ride to continue in Elimination Final

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Tue 01 Sep 2026 08:41

Adam Cusworth 01 Sep 2026

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Geelong highly productive but has struggled vs top 8 and lost last 3 to Carlton.
Carlton surging under Josh Fraser, with strong midfield and improved defense.
Key player props: Sam Walsh for 30+ disposals, Cameron to kick goals.

Expired

Carlton defeated Geelong earlier this season (Getty Images)

Geelong Cats vs Carlton Elimination Final 2026 - Preview
Head to Head Stats
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Geelong Team News
Carlton Form Analysis
Carlton Team News

Geelong Cats vs Carlton Elimination Final 2026 - Preview

Carlton's miraculous season will continue when they take on Geelong in the Elimination Final at the MCG on Friday night.

The Blues head in as underdogs, despite losing just two of 15 matches since Josh Fraser took over as coach, and will need to prevent Geelong from establishing the game in their front half, where the Cats' ability to generate repeat inside 50s can put enormous pressure on opposition defences.

Under Fraser, Carlton have become much harder to score against and should look to make Geelong move the ball through traffic rather than allowing them to use their runners in space. That means pressure through the middle will be crucial, particularly against Bailey Smith and Patrick Dangerfield, with Carlton needing to force Geelong wider and give their defence time to set up behind the ball.

The midfield battle in the AFL Finals clash shapes as particularly interesting because Geelong must decide how much attention they give Sam Walsh. Walsh's ability to accumulate and spread from stoppage makes him an obvious candidate for the tag from Oisin Mullin, but Carlton have enough depth to make that approach risky.

Patrick Cripps and George Hewett can win the contested ball, while Jagga Smith has become another significant contributor. If Geelong devote one of their midfielders to following Walsh, Carlton should look to exploit the additional freedom that creates for Cripps, Hewett or Smith. Walsh should still find plenty of the football around the ground and his record against Geelong makes another 30+ disposal performance a strong possibility.

Jeremy Cameron presents a different tactical question at the other end. Geelong have found an effective forward combination through Shannon Neale and Oliver Henry, meaning Cameron does not necessarily have to play permanently as the deepest forward. His ability to push up the ground or even behind the ball gives the Cats another avenue in transition, but his exceptional record against Carlton makes a more traditional forward role appealing in this matchup.

Expect Geelong to move him around early and attempt to create uncertainty over who takes him, before looking to isolate him closer to goal when the opportunity presents.

The two sides have been posting some big totals in the past six weeks and while finals are a different beast, this game has the potential to open up, bringing the total points over into play.

The Blues have enough midfield strength and defensive organisation to stay with Geelong, making the 8.5-point start appealing, while Walsh and Cameron shape as the two in player props.

Geelong have lost their past four matches against top eight sides and have lost their past three against the Blues.
Geelong have averaged 115 points per game in their past six matches, Carlton have averaged 108 in that period.
Sam Walsh has had 30+ disposals in his past three matches against the Cats and comes off 39 against Melbourne last weekend.
Jeremy Cameron has kicked 22 goals in his past five matches against Carlton.

Head to Head Stats

Carlton have won the past three matches between the two sides, including the Round 12 clash this season at the MCG by four points.

Geelong Cats Form Analysis

Geelong finished fifth with a 15-8 win-loss record and avoided the wildcard round after winning their final six home-and-away matches. None of those six victories came against top-eight opposition, however, and the Cats have lost their past four against sides that finished in the eight. They finished 5-5 against top-eight teams overall and have a 3-2 record at the MCG this season.

The Cats have nevertheless been one of the competition's most damaging attacking sides, averaging 115 points across their past six matches and ranking third for total points, second for inside 50s and third for clearances this season. They finished Round 24 with a 133-76 win over Richmond, with Bailey Smith collecting 40 disposals and kicking three goals, Shaun Mannagh recording 33 disposals and three goals and Shannon Neale kicking four. Neale has kicked 16 goals across his past five matches and Oliver Henry 15, giving Geelong a productive forward combination even with Cameron spending time on the sidelines.

Smith has been at the heart of Geelong's strong finish, averaging 34 disposals across his past seven matches and recording at least 28 in each of them. Patrick Dangerfield has added further strength around the contest since returning, while Cameron got valuable match time into his legs against Richmond after missing since Round 18 with an AC joint injury. Cameron started behind the ball before moving forward during the second half.

Geelong Team News

Jeremy Cameron returned from his collarbone injury against Richmond and got through the match, while Patrick Dangerfield also completed his second game back. Jack Henry hurt his ankle against the Tigers but was available to return and was held out as a precaution. Max Holmes continues to make progress from his ankle injury but remains unlikely for the Elimination Final, while Rhys Stanley remains sidelined following knee surgery.

Carlton Form Analysis

Carlton finished 10th with a 12-10-1 record before extending their remarkable season with a 19-point wildcard victory over Melbourne. The Blues are now 12-2-1 since Josh Fraser took over as coach, although both defeats came at the MCG against Collingwood and Hawthorn. Their victory over Melbourne improved their record at the venue to 5-4 this season.

Carlton conceded the opening four goals against Melbourne before taking control and restricting the Demons to 55 points, their lowest score of the season. The Blues had been averaging 114 points across their previous five matches but have also tightened considerably defensively, conceding only 72 points per game across their past five. Their ability to deny Melbourne fast ball movement and force them into less damaging avenues towards goal was an important feature of the wildcard victory.

Sam Walsh was outstanding with 39 disposals and seven clearances and has now recorded 25+ in eight consecutive matches. Jagga Smith continued his excellent season with 29 disposals, nine clearances and a goal and has reached 25+ in five of his past seven. Ben Ainsworth kicked three goals against Melbourne, while Harry McKay kicked two and has now reached that mark in five consecutive matches.

Carlton Team News

Nick Haynes hurt his right ankle during the opening quarter against Melbourne but returned and played out the match, while Patrick Cripps came from the field with a left knee concern during the third quarter before continuing and should be available. Will Hayward missed the wildcard victory with an ankle injury and will again need to prove his fitness. Nic Newman and Jesse Motlop remain sidelined.

Verdict

Geelong v Carlton Elimination Final

Carlton with the start and the total points over is in play. Walsh to continue good form but Cameron the dangerman for Cats.

Over 170.5

Total Match Points

@4/5 - 1 Unit

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One of Australia's top tipsters, Adam provides tips for horse racing every day of the week as well as AFL previews. He is one of the top ranked experts on the Great Tip Off each month and has featured on Blackbook, Punters, Racingbase and many more.

Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.