Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions Qualifying Final Tips - Undermanned Swans set for brave showing against Brisbane
The Sydney Swans, deprived of five key stars, host the Brisbane Lions in a crucial AFL Qualifying Final. While Sydney's formidable SCG home record and collective pressure could keep them competitive, Brisbane enter in top form, having won 10 of their last 11 and boasting multiple scoring options. Expect a high-scoring encounter, with predictions favoring Brisbane to overcome a courageous Swans line-up. Key players to watch include Callum Mills for Sydney and Dayne Zorko for Brisbane, with both tipped for significant individual contributions.
- Sydney are understrength but have strong home form at the SCG.
- Brisbane Lions come in with 10 wins from their last 11 and formidable forward options.
- Expect a high-scoring game, with Mills (Swans) & Zorko (Lions) favored for high disposals.
Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions Preview
- Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions Preview
- Head to Head
- Sydney Swans Form Analysis
- Sydney Swans Team News
- Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
- Brisbane Lions Team News
The undermanned Sydney Swans outfit will push the premiers, Brisbane, in the Qualifying Final but will fall short.
Sydney, who are without five of their star players, earnt the right to host the Qualifying Final after finishing the regular season in 2nd spot on the ladder but head in as underdogs against the Lions, who finished 3rd.
The Swans will have to do it without the likes of Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Nick Blakey, but have depth at either end of the ground to make a real fist of the contest.
Their Round 24 effort against North Melbourne, which followed a tumultuos week off the field, provided a blueprint for how they can remain competitive without those stars, relying on collective pressure, clearance work and repeat forward entries rather than individual brilliance.
That approach should be even more important against Brisbane, and playing on the tighter SCG gives Sydney an opportunity to turn the game into a territory battle and stay within the 24.5-point start.
Brisbane, however, have a forward structure capable of eventually breaking that resistance. The combination of Logan Morris, Oscar Allen and Eric Hipwood gives the Lions three genuine aerial targets, while their smaller forwards are dangerous when the ball hits the ground.
Sydney's defence will therefore be under pressure both defending the initial entry and preventing Brisbane from scoring from repeat opportunities. The Lions' ability to generate scores from clearance also means this should not necessarily become a dour final, with Sydney themselves still prepared to move the ball aggressively from turnover and attack towards Charlie Curnow and Logan McDonald. That points towards the total match points going over.
The absence of several established Swans for the AFL Finals should also increase the responsibility carried by Callum Mills. Sydney have used their experienced players in flexible roles when trying to limit dangerous opponents, and Mills should be heavily involved around the ball and behind it as the Swans attempt to slow Brisbane's transition, making 25+ disposals appealing. At the other end, Dayne Zorko's ability to launch Brisbane from half-back will be particularly important if Sydney commit numbers to pressure around the contest. If the Lions can withstand that initial pressure, Zorko should repeatedly become an outlet on the outside and can also reach 25+ disposals as Brisbane eventually gain control.
- Sydney have won 10 of 11 at the SCG this season and come off a 53-point win at the venue over North Melbourne.
- The Swans average 115 points per game at the venue, Brisbane are averaging 118 points in their past 11 matches.
- Callum Mills had 32 disposals in the most recent meeting between the two sides.
- Dayne Zorko had 30 disposals in his most recent meeting against Sydney and has had 25+ disposals in four of his past five matches against the Swans.
Head to Head
The Brisbane Lions were 43-point winners in the most recent meeting, with that coming in Round 16 at the GABBA. However, Sydney took out the Round 1 meeting at the SCG by 44 points and have won two of the past three between the two sides.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from;
- Dayne Zorko (Lions)- 25+ disposals in four of his past five against the Swans with 24 in the other.
- Callum Mills (Swans)- 32 disposals in his most recent meeting against the Lions.
- Logan Morris (Lions)- three goals in each of his past two matches against the Swans.
- Zac Bailey (Lions)- eight goals in his past three matches against the Swans.
Sydney Swans Form Analysis
Sydney finished 2nd on the ladder and secured a home Qualifying Final after an impressive home-and-away season. The Swans have been particularly dominant at the SCG, winning 10 of 11 matches at the venue while averaging 115 points per game. Their attacking ceiling was on display against Port Adelaide in Round 22 when they piled on 26.11 (167) in a 97-point victory, one of their most dominant performances of the season.
The Swans then secured 2nd spot with a 36-point win over Essendon at the MCG before overcoming significant disruption to defeat North Melbourne by 53 points in Round 24. Despite making five changes, Sydney dominated the Kangaroos 70-39 for inside 50s and 48-31 at the clearances, showing that their pressure and contest game can stand up despite the missing personnel. Errol Gulden has been outstanding through the run home, recording a career-high 47 disposals against Essendon before finishing with 41 disposals and 1055 metres gained against North Melbourne.
The challenge is maintaining that level against the back-to-back premiers without several of their biggest names. Callum Mills will take on added responsibility through the middle and across half-back, while James Rowbottom returned from hand surgery with 19 disposals and a game-high 12 tackles against North Melbourne. Charlie Curnow remains the focal point in attack after finishing the home-and-away season with 69 goals, while Logan McDonald and a group of younger forwards give the Swans enough options to remain dangerous despite their absences.
Sydney Swans Team News
Sydney will be without Riley Bice, Nick Blakey, Isaac Heeney, James Jordon and Chad Warner for the remainder of the season through suspension. Joel Amartey and Justin McInerney are pushing to return for the Qualifying Final after lengthy injury layoffs, although conditioning will be a consideration, while Hayden McLean is out of concussion protocols and had a solid showing in the VFL last weekend.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Brisbane finished 3rd on the ladder and enter September as one of the competition's form teams. The Lions have won 10 of their past 11 matches, with their only defeat in that period coming against Carlton, and are averaging 118 points per game across that run. They closed the home-and-away season with a 63-point win over Collingwood at the MCG, piling on 25.9 (159) and controlling the match from the outset.
The Lions have produced some of their best football across the final three rounds. They responded to the Carlton defeat by holding Hawthorn to 58 points in a 67-point win, then defeated Gold Coast by 42 points before dismantling Collingwood. Their pressure was particularly strong against the Suns, recording 69 tackles and 21 tackles inside 50, while their midfield then dominated the clearance battle against Collingwood. Lachie Neale had 35 disposals against the Magpies, Josh Dunkley 27 and Will Ashcroft 25, giving Brisbane a deep midfield group capable of testing Sydney's depleted on-ball unit.
Their forward mix is also coming together at the ideal time. Logan Morris kicked a career-high eight goals against Collingwood, while Oscar Allen added four and Eric Hipwood three as the three tall forwards combined for 15 majors. Dayne Zorko continues to provide drive from half-back and had 25 disposals and a goal against Gold Coast, having returned from his quad injury with 32 disposals against Essendon in Round 18. With their midfield, pressure game and forward structure all in strong shape, Brisbane head into the finals with plenty of momentum.
Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane have few injury concerns ahead of the Qualifying Final, with Hugh McCluggage the major player pushing to return. The co-captain missed the final three matches of the home-and-away season with a calf injury but has increased his running and is expected to be available against Sydney. Jack Payne, Henry Smith, Reece Torrent and Zane Zakostelsky are all out for the season.
Verdict
Swans with the start in a high scoring final. Mills and Zorko best for player props
Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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