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Essendon Bombers vs GWS Giants AFL Betting Tips - Giants to run riot in Round 19

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Thu 16 Jul 2026 11:07

Adam Cusworth 16 Jul 2026

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Giants favored to cover the 39.5-point line vs Bombers
Lachie Ash & Finn Callaghan tipped for big disposal numbers
Caddy on form for goals for Essendon

Finn Callaghan of the Giants (Getty Images)

Essendon Bombers vs GWS Giants Verdict
Head to Head Stats
Essendon Bombers Form - Rock Bottom
GWS Giants Form - Premiership Contenders
Essendon vs GWS Giants Team News

Essendon Bombers vs GWS Giants Verdict

The Giants should dominate and cover the 39.5-point line comfortably. Elsewhere, the disposal and goalscorer markets are the value play in this one-sided matchup with Lachie Ash, Finn Callaghan and Nate Caddy all backed.

GWS were 48-point winners the last time the two sides met at Marvel Stadium.
The Giants rank first for disposals this season, while Essendon rank last for disposals conceded.
Lachie Ash and Finn Callaghan both rank inside the top five for uncontested possessions this season.
Nate Caddy has kicked two or more goals in each of his past three matches and in nine of his past 11.

Head to Head Stats

The Giants have won the past two meetings between the sides and kicked clear late in the Round 9 clash this season to record a 14-point victory.

They were 48-point winners at Marvel Stadium in the corresponding fixture last season and have won seven of the past nine meetings overall, although they have lost two of their past three matches at Marvel Stadium.

Essendon Bombers Form - Rock Bottom

Essendon remain anchored to the bottom of the ladder with just one win for the season and have now lost six consecutive matches since the coaching change.

Their latest defeat was a 90-point loss to Brisbane, although a seven-goal final quarter added some respectability after they managed just one goal through the opening three quarters.

The Bombers managed only 59 points and are averaging just 57 points across the past six rounds. They were completely overwhelmed through the midfield, losing the disposal count 424-293 as Brisbane again exposed their inability to defend uncontested possession.

Archie Roberts led the way with 23 disposals, while Sam Durham collected 22. Peter Wright kicked three goals and Nate Caddy continued his excellent individual form with two goals, extending his streak to three consecutive matches with two or more majors and nine of his past 11 overall.

GWS Giants Form - Premiership Contenders

The Giants continue to cement themselves as one of the competition's genuine premiership contenders and possess the profile to trouble any side.

Their ball movement has become one of the AFL's biggest weapons, with GWS ranking first in the competition for disposals and consistently controlling matches through uncontested possession.

Finn Callaghan continues to enjoy an outstanding season and ranks among the league leaders for uncontested possessions, while Lachie Ash has developed into one of the AFL's premier running defenders.

With superior depth across every line and one of the competition's strongest transition games, GWS simply appear too polished for an Essendon side still searching for consistency. If the Giants establish early scoreboard pressure, they look well placed to cover the line comfortably.

Essendon vs GWS Giants Team News

The Bombers regain Jordan Ridley after he was managed last week, while Kyle Langford also returns. James Artemis and Hamish El Achkar have both been included as Essendon makes four changes, with Harrison Jones the only confirmed omission.

Lachie Whitfield returns after missing last week's match, but the Giants lose Kieren Briggs and Phoenix Gothard to injury while Harvey Thomas has been managed.

Adam Kingsley's side has named an extended interchange featuring several recalled players as it looks to maintain its position inside the top eight.

Verdict

Essendon Bombers v GWS Giants

Giants to cover the line with Ash and Callaghan set to rack up huge disposals totals. Caddy on for 2+ goals for the battling Bombers.

GWS Giants -39.5

Line

@7/8 - 1 Unit

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One of Australia's top tipsters, Adam provides tips for horse racing every day of the week as well as AFL previews. He is one of the top ranked experts on the Great Tip Off each month and has featured on Blackbook, Punters, Racingbase and many more.

Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.