Hawthorn Hawks vs GWS Giants Tips - Hawks too strong at the MCG for out of sorts Giants
Hawthorn Hawks face GWS Giants in AFL Round 16 at the MCG. The Hawks are in strong form, having won three of their last four games and never losing to GWS at the MCG. Standout players include Jai Newcombe, Will Day, and Nick Watson, with the latter expected to capitalize on GWS’ defensive issues. Injuries hit both sides, but Hawthorn’s forward pressure and midfield prowess give them a significant edge. Expect Hawthorn to cover the line comfortably, with Day and Watson tipped for impactful performances.
- Hawks favored to continue MCG dominance over GWS Giants.
- Jai Newcombe, Will Day, & Nick Watson expected to star.
- GWS struggles with turnover and injuries; Hawks likely to cover.
Round 16 Hawthorn Hawks vs GWS Giants Preview
- Round 16 Hawthorn Hawks vs GWS Giants Preview
- Head to Head
- Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
- Hawthorn Hawks Team News
- GWS Giants Form Analysis
- GWS Giants Team News
Hawthorn will overcome a recent MCG curse on Friday night by inflicting more pain on GWS with a comfortable win over the struggling Giants at the MCG.
The Hawks have not won at their home ground in their past three attempts and threw away victory against the Western Bulldogs at the venue in Round 13, but come in with two straight wins since then to sit firmly in the top four.
They take on their fellow Elimination Finalists, GWS, who have never really got going this season and are down on confidence with two losses since returning from the bye.
The Giants have been vulnerable to opposition pressure, back-half turnovers and repeat inside-50 entries, and that is a dangerous mix against a Hawthorn side that can punish sides quickly when they win centre clearance and get freedom going forward.
Jai Newcombe looms as one of the most important players on the ground. He was dominant against Gold Coast with 31 disposals, 10 clearances and two goals, including a game-high eight centre clearances. GWS have had issues at centre bounce and may need to consider a run-with role through Toby Bedford, but Newcombe’s power around stoppage and ability to impact the scoreboard makes him a major factor.
With attention on Newcombe, expect Will Day to produce his best game since returning from injury. He has now had three games back, showed flashes of his class against Gold Coast and has had 25+ disposals in two of his past three matches at the MCG. With more continuity and game time, he appeals as a strong chance to build into a bigger midfield role.
With GWS having never beaten Hawthorn at the MCG, the Hawks are well placed to cover the line. Their ability to defend the ground well at the MCG, combined with GWS’ recent issues moving the ball with fluency, points to a tough night for the Giants.
While they have a stack of names in the midfield that are capable of finding the footy, including Clayton Olievr and Finn Callaghan, their inconsistency, back-half turnover issues and lack of attacking fluency are major concerns heading into a match against a Hawthorn side that can score quickly once it wins clearance and territory.
Nick Watson is another key angle in the Round 16 match and the odds from Ladbrokes Australia make him value. The Giants have leaked goals to small forwards in recent weeks and Watson comes in with three goals in four of his past six matches. With Hawthorn’s forward-half pressure and quick ball movement, it is hard to see GWS denying the Hawks enough quality inside-50 looks to keep Watson quiet.
- GWS have never beaten Hawthorn at the MCG
- The Hawks are 9-4-1, the Giants are 6-8
- Nick Watson has kicked 3+ goals in four of his past six matches
- Will Day has had 25+ disposals in two of his past three matches at the MCG
Head to Head
GWS were 27-point winners against the Hawks in the Opening Round this season, with that match played at ENGIE Stadium. Hawthorn took out the Elimination Final at that venue last season by 19 points and have won two of the past three between the two sides. They have not clashed at the MCG since 2021 and the Hawks are four from four at the venue against the Giants.
Standout player performances in recent head-to-heads have come from:
- Lachie Whitfield (Giants) – 30+ disposals in four of his past five against the Hawks and 27 in the most recent meeting.
- Jai Newcombe (Hawks) – 25+ disposals in three of his past four against GWS, hitting 30+ in two of those.
- Jesse Hogan (Giants) – 15 goals in his past four against Hawthorn.
- Jack Gunston (Hawks) – 18 goals in his past six against the Giants.
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
Hawthorn have a win-loss record of 9-4-1 and have won three of their past four matches, defeating Adelaide, St Kilda and the Gold Coast Suns, while inaccuracy cost them in their six-point loss to the Western Bulldogs. They had the bye in Round 14 and returned with a 16-point win over the Gold Coast Suns.
The Hawks recorded 20-12 centre bounce clearances against the Suns, scoring 5.4 to 0.0 from that source. Jai Newcombe recorded a game-high eight centre clearances — the equal-most by any player this season — and had 31 disposals. He has now had 30+ in his past two matches.
Dylan Moore booted four goals in what was a high-scoring match, with Hawthorn winning 17.11.113 to 14.13.97, while Nick Watson chimed in with three. Watson has booted three in four of his past six and has hit 2+ goals in his past nine. Will Day continued his return from injury with 21 disposals and a classy goal.
Hawthorn Hawks Team News
Hawthorn will be without Jarman Impey, who went down with a hamstring injury against the Suns, while Karl Amon is in some doubt with soreness. Josh Weddle was handed a three-match suspension for a bump on Daniel Rioli. Jack Gunston is set to miss again, while Sam Butler, Finn Maginness and Henry Hustwaite are among those with strong VFL form who could come in.
GWS Giants Form Analysis
GWS are struggling for consistency in 2026. They gave the impression they were back to their best with a dazzling 78-point win over Brisbane, as well as a 49-point triumph over Melbourne, but have returned from the bye with an eight-point loss to St Kilda and a 23-point loss to Carlton.
That loss leaves them with a win-loss record of 6-8 and some work to do to make finals. The Giants could only generate 46 inside 50s to 61 against the Blues and were beaten 16-6 at centre clearance.
Finn Callaghan picked up 31 disposals, while Clayton Oliver had 29. Toby Greene booted three goals up forward, while Jesse Hogan kicked 1.3.
The Giants rank second in the competition for disposals this season, with Oliver No.3 in the competition for average disposals at 31.5 per game. Callaghan has had 30+ in three of his past four.
GWS Giants Team News
Jayden Laverde came from the ground with hamstring soreness in the loss to Carlton and is in doubt. Jack Buckley and Max Gruzewski are among a host of Giants on the sidelines. Riley Hamilton and Jack Ough have some solid form in the VFL, should the Giants selection panel decide to make changes.
Verdict
Hawthorn to cover with Day and Watson enjoying big nights
Hawthorn -19.5
Line
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