North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Essendon Bombers Tips - Kangaroos to scrape through in another tight one
North Melbourne look poised to continue their recent resurgence when they face Essendon, who’ve struggled all season and sit last, at Marvel Stadium. The Kangaroos come in with momentum, improved scoring options, and a disciplined defence, making them favourites despite a difficult historical matchup. Essendon will benefit from key inclusions but lack consistency, especially scoring power. Expect a low-scoring affair with North Melbourne likely to win in the 1-39 point margin, with the total points under the set line. Luke Davies-Uniacke stands out as a player to watch for high disposals.
- North Melbourne are favourites, with strong recent form and solid defence.
- Essendon struggle for four-quarter consistency and scoring, despite key players returning.
- Expect a low-scoring game, with North likely to win by 1-39 points.
2026 North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Essendon Bombers Preview
- 2026 North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Essendon Bombers Preview
- Head to Head
- North Melbourne Kangaroos Form Analysis
- North Melbourne Kangaroos Team News
- Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
- Essendon Bombers Team News
North Melbourne will edge past their hoodoo side from recent seasons, Essendon, when the two sides meet each other at Marvel Stadium on Sunday.
The Kangaroos have defeated Essendon just once in the past 13 meetings but that victory occurred earlier this year and they come in with a lot more momentum than a Bombers outfit that are anchored to the bottom of the ladder with just one win under their belt in 2026.
But another tight and low-scoring contest shapes as the most likely outcome. The Kangaroos have tightened up significantly defensively over the past fortnight, restricting West Coast to 10 goals before holding Richmond to just six.
Harry Sheezel, Caleb Daniel and Luke Parker have been instrumental in controlling games with their ball use, while North's ability to manage territory and deny opposition scoring opportunities has improved.
Luke Davies-Uniacke shapes as one of the key players in the Round 16 fixture. Essendon were comprehensively beaten around clearance and contested possession against Melbourne prior to the bye, while Davies-Uniacke has a proven record against the Bombers and should find plenty of opportunities alongside Sheezel, George Wardlaw and Tristan Xerri through the middle of the ground.
North are also beginning to find support for Nick Larkey inside 50. Cooper Trembath produced a career-best four-goal performance against Richmond and his ability to pinch-hit in the ruck has helped ease the workload on Xerri while creating another aerial threat forward of centre. That added flexibility gives North more avenues to score than Essendon currently possess.
The Bombers should regain some quality through the return of players such as Jye Caldwell, Darcy Parish and Andrew McGrath, which will make them more competitive around the contest. Zach Merrett continues to battle hard regardless of role and Will Setterfield has been one of the few consistent midfield performers in recent weeks.
But Essendon are still struggling to produce four-quarter performances. Their inability to consistently win contested ball and generate repeat forward entries was exposed against Melbourne, while scoring has been a significant issue throughout the season. North's recent wins have been built on defensive discipline and game management rather than shootouts, which points towards another low-scoring contest.
The Kangaroos have won five games in the 1-39 point range this season and that again looks the most likely result. Expect North Melbourne to control territory for long periods, restrict Essendon's scoring opportunities and gradually wear the Bombers down in a match where the total points under appeals strongly. Luke Davies-Uniacke looks one of the standout player-prop candidates for 25+ disposals.
- Five of North Melbourne’s seven wins have been in the 1-39 point bracket
- The total points in the Kangaroos' past two matches has averaged just 134
- The total points in Essendon’s four matches under Dean Solomon has averaged just 138
- Luke Davies-Uniacke has had 25+ disposals in his past four matches against Essendon
Head to Head
North Melbourne defeated Essendon by 12 points in Round 3 this season, ending a bit of a hoodoo after Essendon had taken out the previous 12 matches between the two sides, a sequence that stretched back to 2016.
Standout player performances in the recent head-to-heads have come from;
- Harry Sheezel (Roos) - 30+ disposals in each of his past four against Essendon
- Luke Davies-Uniacke (Roos) - 25+ disposals in each of his past four
- Cam Zurhaar (Roos) - 12 goals from his past five matches against Essendon
- Nick Larkey (Roos) - 12 goals from his past five matches against Essendon
North Melbourne Kangaroos Form Analysis
North Melbourne come in with a 7-7 win-loss record this season and have won three of their past four with tight victories over Gold Coast (six points) and West Coast (one point), before the 25-point win over Richmond last weekend.
Those victories were split by a massive 124-point loss to Fremantle but their form against sides lower than them on the ladder reads as six wins from seven matches.
In the win over Richmond, Caleb Daniel was able to dictate from half-back and chalked up 40 disposals, while Harry Sheezel and Luke Parker both hit the 30+. Sheezel has hit 30+ in six of his past nine matches.
The Roos have a variety of attacking options and Cooper Trembath booted four of North’s 10 goals against Richmond, while Nick Larkey leads the Roos' goal-kicking table with 31 majors from 14 games.
North Melbourne Kangaroos Team News
There were no injuries to report out of the win over Richmond. Riley Hardemann is a chance to return from concussion, while Paul Curtis has two weeks left to serve on a suspension.
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
Essendon have won just one match this season and remain anchored to the bottom of the ladder. They parted ways with their coach, Brad Scott, last month and have had three matches under Dean Solomon for losses to West Coast by 30 points, Carlton by five and Melbourne by 45.
The Bombers come off the bye in Round 15 and had some solid contributions before the break from Will Setterfield, who had 34 disposals against Melbourne, while Zach Merrett picked up 32.
Merrett has had 30+ disposals in three of his past four, while Setterfield has had 25+ in his past three. Essendon could only manage six goals against Melbourne and are averaging just 72 points per game in their past four.
Essendon Bombers Team News
Essendon should regain some important players with Jye Caldwell, Isaac Kako, Andrew McGrath and Darcy Parish all a strong chance to return. Jayden Nguyen is also available again after serving his suspension, while Angus Clarke, Matt Guelfi, Rhys Unwin and potentially Vigo Visentini are nearing selection but are more likely to return through the VFL. The Bombers will be without Archie Roberts after he injured his shoulder against Melbourne, while Kyle Langford is also set to miss with a quad injury.
Verdict
Kangaroos in the 1-39 point bracket with total points under
Under 174.5
O/U
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Luke Davies-Uniacke
To Have 25+ disposals
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