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France vs Spain Predictions & Betting Tips - Value on La Roja at the 2026 World Cup

matthew-marshall
Matthew Marshall
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Last updated: Sun 12 Jul 2026 14:50
Spain and France face off in the World Cup semi-finals, with France entering as favourites thanks to an unbeaten run and Mbappé's scoring prowess. However, Spain's strong defence and historical edge—18 wins to France’s 13—give them hope. Having defeated France in their last two encounters, including the 2025 UEFA Nations League semi-final, Spain's midfield strength and tactical discipline could be pivotal. With Rodri healthy and Lamine Yamal poised for a breakthrough, the expected close match may favour Spain for another upset.
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  • Spain have won 7 of their last 10 matches against France
  • La Roja haven’t lost in regulation time in 36 straight games
  • Luis de la Fuente's side can upset the odds at the World Cup
France Spain yamal uefa
Lamine Yamal has scored 3 goals in 2 games against France (Getty)

France are the World Cup favourites but have lost their last two matches against Spain. I think La Roja have the advantage in midfield which can help them upset the odds in the semi-finals.

HTH - La Roja on Top


Spain have long history against France, establishing an 18-13 record alongside seven draws.

They last met in the 2025 UEFA Nations League semi-finals, Spain winning 5-4 with Lamine Yamal scoring twice.

France in Formidable Form


France have a perfect record at the World Cup, winning all six matches with five of those by 2+ goals. Kylian Mbappé has proved his superstar status by scoring eight goals, level with Lionel Messi.

Mbappé scored twice in France’s first two victories, 3-1 against Senegal and 3-0 over Iraq. Ousmane Dembélé took centre stage against Norway, hitting a hat-trick in a 4-1 win.

Didier Deschamps’ side haven’t conceded a goal in the knockout stages, Mbappé bagging another brace in a convincing 3-0 win over Sweden. Paraguay put up a fight but offered nothing in attack, Mbappé’s penalty the difference in a 1-0 victory.

Le Bleus outclassed Morocco in the quarter-finals, Mbappé unable to convert an early penalty before opening the scoring in the second half. Dembélé wrapped up a 2-0 win as they ended the contest with 3.68-0.14 xG.

Deschamps described the victory against the African side, saying: "We have done everything right to pin them. We suffocated them and made them run. Then they were just tired."

France Team News & Predicted Line Up


Aurelien Tchouameni hasn’t featured in the last two games as he battles a thigh injury. Manu Koné could continue in the starting side as a result.

Deschamps is unlikely to make any changes in attack here with Désiré Doué continuing on the left wing ahead of Bradley Barcola.

France (4-2-3-1): Mike Maignan; Jules Koundé, Dayot Upamecano, William Saliba, Lucas Digne; Adrien Rabiot, Manu Koné; Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise, Désiré Doué; Kylian Mbappé

Spain's Defence Close to Indestructable


Spain’s defence has been sensational at the World Cup, conceding one goal on their way to the semi-finals.

An unlucky 0-0 draw against Cabo Verde was followed by a 4-0 victory over Saudi Arabia and 1-0 win against Uruguay.

Mikel Oyarzabal scored two goals in a 3-0 victory against Austria, La Roja dominating with 10-0 shots on target. It was a tougher tussle against Portugal, Mikel Merino’s added time goal securing a 1-0 victory in Toronto.

Luis de la Fuente's side outclassed Belgium in the quarter-finals but left it late once again. Fabián Ruiz’s opener was cancelled out before the break, Merino scoring off the bench as Spain ended with 68% possession and 1.96-0.35 xG.

Spain Team News & Predicted Line Up


Fabián Ruiz staked his claim for a starting spot in midfield but might have to make way for Pedri.

Luis de la Fuente is likely to keep Mikel Merino, Ferran Torres and Nico Williams as options off the bench. Álex Baena would be most likely to drop out if a change is made.

Spain (4-2-3-1): Unai Simón; Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsi, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri; Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Alex Baena; Mikel Oyarzabal

Verdict

Spain’s defence has been the best in the tournament and with Rodri fully fit, I think La Roja can spring a surprise. Lamine Yamal is yet to fire at the World Cup but this could be his time to shine.

Best Bet1: Spain To Qualify @13/10 at Hollywood bets - 2 Units
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Best Bet3: Lamine Yamal Anytime Goalscorer @5/2 at Star Sports - 2 Units
Best Bet4: Lamine Yamal First Goalscorer @8/1 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
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