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Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm NRL Betting Tips - Storm to cover in entertaining Good Friday clash

ryan-tucker
Ryan Tucker
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Last updated: Wed 01 Apr 2026 18:23
The Penrith Panthers face the Melbourne Storm in an exciting NRL matchup. The Panthers are undefeated through four rounds, boasting a stellar defense and an impressive attack, having scored 140 points so far. Conversely, the Storm sits at 2-2 after suffering an upset against the North QLD Cowboys. Betting insights suggest taking Melbourne with an 8.5-point headstart, with standout players including Isaiah Papali’i and Thomas Jenkins as top tryscorer options. Key to watch will be Penrith's early game dominance and Melbourne's ability to rebound from previous defeats.
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Ryan Tucker 01 Apr 2026
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  • Panthers remain only undefeated team, showcasing strong defense and attack.
  • Melbourne Storm at 2-2, pushing to recover after upset loss to Cowboys.
  • Value lies in Storm with 8.5-point start; Papali’i & Jenkins key tryscorers.
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panthers storm nrl
Penrith Panthers and Melbourne Storm meet on Good Friday (Getty Images)

Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm Preview


Penrith are flying but they have had a problem with Melbourne Storm in regular season matches. They have won four in a row, finals aside, and are backed in the handicap market with a +8.5 start. 

  • Penrith are not only the number 1 ranked scoring defence, they lead the league in opposition Linebreaks, Run Metres and Completion Rate.
  • The Storm have covered in 4 straight games against Penrith when they are underdogs.
  • Melbourne have conceded 4 tries to opposition 2nd Rowers in their last 2 games and conceded 2 tries to forwards in their last matchup vs Penrith.
  • Isaiah Papali’i scored in his most recent game vs Melbourne and also scored in last week’s win vs Parramatta.
  • Thomas Jenkins has scored the last try for Penrith in 3 of 4 games this season.

Head to Head 


These two teams have met 16 times since the start of the 2019 season. Four of those games have been finals matches including two Grand Finals. 

Penrith hold a 3-1 advantage in Finals but Melbourne hold a 7-5 lead in the regular season head to head which includes four straight games, the most recent a 22-18 win last year in Golden Point.

The last three straight regular season games have gone Over the Game Total but the win margin has been six points or less.

Penrith Panthers Flying Through Opening Rounds


Penrith remain the only undefeated team through the first four rounds with their defence anchoring the team just like through their dynasty era.

They have allowed a combined 30 points through four games, 18 pts less than the next team in the Bulldogs who have only played three games. Not only has their defence been the best we have seen, their attack is the best in the league, amassing 140 pts to start the year.

The game last week against Parramatta was almost over before it started with the Panthers scoring three times in the first 12 minutes. They led 30-4 at the half and controlled the tempo in the 2nd, not allowing their opponent to get back into the game.

Melbourne Storm Now 2-2 After Defeat


Melbourne were on the wrong end of the upset of the round last weekend, going down to the North QLD Cowboys 28-24 in Townsville. The loss takes them to 2-2 on the season but they remain in the top 8 thanks to a superior points differential.

The Storm led 16-10 at half time but a poor completion rate coupled with portions of low possession meant they struggled to put any significant points on the board to put their opposition away. The Cowboys scored 3 tries in the final 12 minutes of play to comeback and take the victory.

Sua Fa’alongo scored a try while also making two Linebreaks and having 203 Run Metres in the game. He has now scored seven tries in four games this season and has contributed with two Try Assists and 27 Tackle Breaks. 

Verdict

The value play is to grab the Storm with the 8.5 points headstart. Top Tryscorer prop is Isaiah Papali’i on the edge while Tom Jenkins offers value as Penrith’s last tryscorer.

Best Bet1: Melbourne +8.5 Line @9/10 at Hollywood bets - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Over 43.5 Game Total @9/10 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: I Papali'i Anytime Tryscorer @13/4 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: T Jenkins Last Tryscorer @13/2 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Melbourne +8.5
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T Jenkins
Last Tryscorer
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