GWS Giants vs Essendon Bombers Tips - GWS hard to stop in high scoring shootout at ENGIE Stadium
The GWS Giants face Essendon Bombers in Round 9, with the Giants seeking to stay in the finals race. GWS's midfield strength and home-ground advantage make them clear favorites, especially given Essendon's defensive struggles, but the Bombers’ scoring form keeps the total points over in play. Player props like disposals for Oliver and Callaghan, and Roberts for Essendon, are strong opportunities. Despite GWS's inconsistencies, expect them to control territory and possession, whilst Essendon look capable of keeping the margin under control and adding to the scoreboard.
- GWS favored at home, but Essendon's attack keeps the scoreline close.
- Total points over is in play due to both teams' scoring trends.
- Look for big games from disposal leaders Oliver, Callaghan, and Roberts.
GWS Giants vs Essendon Bombers Preview
GWS will stay in touch with the top eight by registering a win over Essendon, in a match where the total points over is right in play.
The Giants come in with a 3-5 win-loss record and are yet to really click in 2026, while Essendon languish in 17th spot on the ladder with just a single win to their credit.
The Giants were far from polished in their loss to Gold Coast, but the underlying numbers suggest they are not far away, producing some strong signs in contested possession and clearance, while execution and ability to punish opposition errors is an area to work on.
They can rectify this against an Essendon side that has been heavily punished for its own mistakes in recent weeks. With players like Clayton Oliver, Finn Callaghan and Lachie Whitfield finding plenty of the footy, GWS should be able to control large periods through midfield possession and territory.
Essendon’s struggle defensively and were exposed in their loss to Brisbane when going down by 64 points, following on from their 74 point loss to Collingwood.
Any defensive lapses will see them be punished against the Giants in the Round 9 clash. The flip side is that Essendon are still capable of contributing on the scoreboard and have averaged around 90 points in the past month.
That ability, combined with GWS’s occasional defensive lapses, keeps the total points over firmly in play, particularly if the game opens up as expected.
From a betting perspective, the 45.5-point line looks about right. GWS should have too much class and depth, especially at home, but their inconsistency makes them difficult to trust at big margins.
There is a slight leaning towards Essendon to stay within that number, given their capacity to find goals, but they remain a risky proposition. Expect GWS to control the contest, win comfortably enough, and for the ball to live in the hands of their key midfielders — making disposal-based player props, particularly for Oliver and Callaghan, strong plays in what shapes as a high-scoring encounter. Archie Roberts is a solid player prop for Essendon, given his numbers in the past five weeks.
- Clayton Oliver has had 30+ disposals in five of his past six matches
- Finn Callaghan had 33 disposals the last time he played Essendon
- Archie Roberts is averaging 36 disposals in the past five rounds
- Essendon are averaging 90 points per game in the past four rounds but conceding 133 in that period
Head to Head
GWS have won two of the past three between the two sides and were 48-point winners in Round 19 last season at Marvel Stadium. The Giants were 136-point winners in the most recent meeting at ENGIE Stadium, which came in Round 23 of 2023. They have taken out their past four at the venue against the Bombers.
Notable player performances in the recent head to heads have come from;
- Toby Greene (Giants)- two goals in each of his last six against Essendon
- Kyle Langford (Bombers)- six goals in his past two against the Giants
- Jesse Hogan (Giants)- a nine goal haul against the Bombers in the 2023 demolition
- Finn Callaghan (Giants)- 33 disposals the last time he played the Bombers
GWS Giants Form Analysis
The Giants sit at 3-5 and won’t be hitting the panic button just yet, despite going down to the Gold Coast Suns by 20 points in their most recent match.
The early parts of their season have been interrupted by a lack of availability of some key players and they are still struggling for connection as their line up settles.
In the Suns match, there were some positives with a strong clearance and contested possession display but they did not adapt to the conditions as well as the home side, turning the ball over and lacking polish when heading inside 50.
Aaron Cadman and Phoenix Gothard booted two goals each and were the only multiple goalkickers, while Clayton Oliver continued his solid form since switching from Melbourne in the off-season, picking up 32 disposals and nine clearances. Lachie Whitfield (30 disposals), Lachie Ash (29) and Finn Callaghan (28) all found plenty of the footy as well.
Oliver has had 30+ disposals in five of his past six matches, while Ash and Whitfield are both averaging 30 disposals in 2026. The Giants play at their main home ground of ENGIE Stadium for just the third time this season and boast a win over Hawthorn in the Opening Round, while they lost to St Kilda at their last match at home but have won 11 of their past 13 home and away matches at the venue.
GWS Giants Team News
Ryan Angwin will miss with a concussion that he sustained in the loss to the Gold Coast Suns, while Sam Taylor is still a few weeks away from returning. Max Gruzewski, Toby McMullin and Harry Rowston are among those with some strong VFL form that may come in to the 23.
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
Essendon showed signs of improvement with a 45-point win over Melbourne in Gather Round and a strong performance against Gold Coast when going down by just nine points but were disappointing in the ANZAC Day clash when going down to Collingwood by 77 then were no match for last year’s premiers, Brisbane, last weekend in the 64 point loss.
Their defence remains a concern and they have conceded an average of 133 points per game in the past three weeks. Scoring has improved in the past month, going at just over 90 points per game. Nate Caddy kicked 3.5, while Peter Wright snagged two goals from a strong performance in the ruck.
Archie Roberts had 27 disposals, which ended a run of four straight that saw him land 30+, while Zach Merrett had 28 disposals. He is averaging 26 disposals this season and has had 30+ in three of his past five.
Essendon Bombers Team News
Injury concerns for the Bombers with Jye Caldwell (ankle) and Saad El-Hawli (collarbone) pulling up sore from the Lions match, joining Jordan Ridley on the sidelines. Ben McKay continues to struggle for form. Mason Redman, Elijah Tsatas and Will Setterfield will all be considered for selection after some strong performances in the VFL on the weekend.
Verdict
Take the total points over with a number of players in the frame in disposals markets
Over 193.5
O/U
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Clayton Oliver
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