North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans Tips - Swans too good as reality sets in for Kangaroos
The North Melbourne Kangaroos face a tough challenge against the in-form Sydney Swans in Round 9. After a strong season start, the Kangaroos have faltered recently and now face a Sydney team averaging 118 points per game and boasting the league’s most dynamic attack. Historically, Sydney has dominated this matchup, winning the past 10 meetings. With key forwards firing and defensive struggles for North against top teams, the Swans are tipped to cover the spread and the Total Points Over is an enticing play.
- Sydney Swans have won the last 10 matches vs North Melbourne.
- Swans boast the AFL's highest scoring average at 118 points per game in 2026.
- Expect Sydney to cover the spread and the Total Points Over to be challenged.
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans Preview
- North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans Preview
- Head to Head
- North Melbourne Kangaroos Form Analysis
- North Melbourne Kangaroos Team News
- Sydney Swans Form Analysis
- Sydney Swans Team News
North Melbourne look set for another reality check when they take on the high-flying Sydney Swans in Round 9.
The Kangaroos made their best start to a season since 2016, winning four of their first five games, but have been brought back to earth in recent weeks with losses to Brisbane, GWS and most recently, Geelong, by 49 points. They now sit at 4-4 and face a Sydney outfit that is flying at 7-1 and playing the most potent attacking football in the competition.
Sydney should prove too strong again and are well placed to cover the 26.5-point line. Their scoring power has been relentless in 2026, averaging 118 points per game, and while North Melbourne have shown defensive improvement, that has not held up against the stronger sides.
The Swans’ ability to generate scores from multiple avenues was on full display in their win over Melbourne, with the forward line functioning as a collective unit and not relying on one player. That versatility makes them extremely difficult to defend.
While North Melbourne matched Geelong for deep periods last weekend, their inability to sustain pressure and composure is a major concern against a side like Sydney that thrives when the game opens up.
Expect North to be competitive early, particularly through the midfield where Tristan Xerri and Luke Davies-Uniacke can generate contest, but once the Swans get their ball movement going, they are likely to overwhelm.
Joel Amartey looms as a major threat inside 50 and is a strong play for 3+ goals in the Round 9 match, while Isaac Heeney continues to impact both through the midfield and forward half and shapes as a solid option for 2+ goals.
With Sydney’s scoring profile and North’s ability to contribute on the scoreboard, the total points over is also in play.
- Sydney have won the past 10 matches between the two sides and won by 65 the last time they played the Kangaroos at Marvel Stadium.
- The Swans are averaging 118 points per game, the best of any side in 2026.
- Isaac Heeney booted five goals the last time he played North Melbourne
- Joel Amartey has kicked six goals in two matches against North.
Head to Head
Sydney have owned this matchup in recent times, taking out the last 10 meetings by an average of 26 points. They were 65-point winners at Marvel Stadium in Round 4 last season before triumphing by 31 at the SCG in Round 19. They have won their past 10 against the Roos at Marvel Stadium, a sequence that goes back to 2008 when the two sides played out a draw at the venue.
Notable player performances in recent head-to-heads come from:
- Jye Simpkin (Roos) – 25+ disposals in five of his past six against the Swans
- Joel Amartey (Swans) – six goals in two matches against North
- Logan McDonald (Swans) – six goals in two matches against North
- Isaac Heeney (Swans) – five goals the last time he played the Roos
North Melbourne Kangaroos Form Analysis
North Melbourne have made their best start to a season since 2016 by taking out four of their first five matches on the back of a kind draw to open up, but have dropped three of their past four, with those coming against finalists from last season.
Last week, it was a 49-point loss to Geelong. The Kangaroos led midway through the third term but conceded 14 of the last 19 goals, including nine in the final term, in the 135-86 scoreline. They have tightened up defensively this season but are still giving up 95.5 points per game, which blows out to 111 in the three matches they have played against top-eight opponents.
Positives for the Kangaroos last week came from Tristan Xerri, who had 30 disposals and 14 clearances — massive numbers for a ruckman. Zane Duursma continues to show growth and booted three goals, while the veteran Jack Darling also chimed in with three.
Harry Sheezel had a quiet match by his standards against Geelong with just 20 disposals. He has had 30+ in six of his eight matches this season. Luke Davies-Uniacke had 24 disposals against Geelong, which is bang on his average for the season.
North Melbourne Kangaroos Team News
There were no injuries for North Melbourne to come out of the Geelong match, with Charlie Comben making a strong return after missing the Giants match with illness. Cooper Harvey has been pressing his claims for selection with some strong performances in the VFL.
Sydney Swans Form Analysis
Sydney sit on top of the ladder with a 7-1 win-loss record after their 17-point win over Melbourne. They have registered some big winning margins so far and sit with a healthy percentage of 165.5, averaging 118 points per game, the best of any side in the competition.
Last week it was a high-scoring win over Melbourne (131-114), with Malcolm Rosas having a massive day with seven goals, while Joel Amartey (four goals) and Logan McDonald (three) were also among the action. The tall trio of Amartey, McDonald and Charlie Curnow are working well, with Curnow booting seven goals a week earlier against the Bulldogs.
The win over Melbourne was set up with quick ball movement and control of possession, with dominance in the disposals and marking counts. Isaac Heeney had 33 disposals, while Justin McInerney collected 29. Those two have averaged 26 per game in 2026.
Sydney Swans Team News
Sydney’s list is in solid shape, with most of their starting 23 available except for Tom McCartin (knee) and Errol Gulden (shoulder). Both won’t be seen for some time. Peter Ladhams is applying strong selection pressure with excellent VFL form but may find it difficult to break into the side given the current form of the senior lineup.
Verdict
Swans too strong with the Total Points Over in play. Amartey and Heeney on for multiple goals
Sydney -27.5
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