Greece vs Italy Predictions & Tips - Goals in Short Supply in Friendly Fixture
Greece and Italy face off in an international friendly in Crete, with both teams currently struggling for form. Recent matches have seen low goal tallies, suggesting a tight and defensive encounter. Italy have an edge in head-to-head meetings, while Greece have not won in their last four outings. An inexperienced Italian squad narrowly beat Luxembourg in their last friendly, while Greece managed a draw with Sweden. With both sides showing defensive resilience, under 2.5 goals is recommended for this match.
- Both nations failed to qualify for the World Cup
- Under 2.5 goals tipped to land in Crete on Sunday
- Get our Greece vs Italy tips for the International Friendly
- Greece vs Italy Predictions
- Tight Contest Expected
- Italy Lead Greece in Recent H2H
- Greece's Winless Run Continues
- Inexperienced Italy Edge Past Luxembourg
- Squads and Team News
Greece vs Italy Predictions
With both teams probably having one eye on their summer vacations, a low-key and tight affair seems likely to develop in Crete.
I have my stake on under 2.5 goals scored in Sunday's international friendly fixture.
Tight Contest Expected
- Greece have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches
- Greece scored an average of 0.5 goals per game in their last 4 matches
- Italy have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches
- Italy have scored an average of 1.25 goals per game in their last 4 matches
Italy Lead Greece in Recent H2H
Greece and Italy have met on three occasions since 2008. Italy won two of those games, while one match finished level. The Greeks have not beaten Italy since a friendly win in 1972.
Greece's Winless Run Continues
Greece return to home comforts after picking up a respectable 2-2 draw against Sweden earlier this week. Giorgos Masouras's stoppage-time goal rescued a well-deserved share of the spoils for Ivan Jovanovic's side.
The Greeks performed well in an entertaining encounter at Strawberry Arena. Both teams had 13 shots, with the visitors edging the xG totals with 2.05 to the Swede's 1.5.
Before scoring twice on Thursday, the Azure & White had scored just one goal while failing to win three previous matches, including a disappointing 1-0 defeat against Paraguay in March.
Jovanovic's men have endured a miserable run of results in the past 12 months. Greece lost four and won only one of eight internationals since September 2025.
World Cup qualification also proved elusive for the out-of-form Greeks. The Azure & White eventually finished third in their UEFA qualification campaign behind group winners Scotland and runners-up Denmark.
Inexperienced Italy Edge Past Luxembourg
A youthful Italian selection claimed a narrow 1-0 win against Luxembourg in Wednesday's international friendly. Pio Esposito scored his fourth goal in eight appearances for the Azzurri to secure a deserved road victory for the visitors.
Despite a lack of experience, the Italians emerged worthy winners at Stade de Luxembourg. Led by caretaker Silvio Baldini, Italy registered 15 shots and a final xG total of 2.26.
Luxembourg proved less effective, with the hosts unable to trouble a well-organised visiting defence. Jeff Strasser's men had nine efforts but an xG of just 0.34.
Italy, absent from a third successive World Cup after failing to qualify in March, have now kept clean sheets in four of their last six matches. Four of those fixtures also produced fewer than three goals.
Despite their recent failures, Italy have lost just one of their last ten internationals. However, heavy World Cup qualifying defeats against Norway (4-1 and 3-0) saw the Azzurri enter the playoffs, where they suffered a heartbreaking penalty shootout defeat against Bosnia.
Squads and Team News
Greece Squad
Goalkeepers: Odysseas Vlachodimos, Konstantis Tzolakis and Christos Mandas
Defenders: Kostas Tsimikas, Dinos Mavropanos, Pantelis Chatzidiakos, Dimitris Giannoulis, Lazaros Rota, Panos Retsos, Dinos Koulierakis, Giorgos Vagiannidis, Giorgos Kyriakopoulos and Andreas Ntoi
Midfielders: Dimitris Kourbelis, Christos Zafeiris, Thanasis Androutsos, Christos Mouzakitis, Nectarios Triantis and Sotiris Kontouris
Forwards: Giorgos Masouras, Vangelis Pavlidis, Christos Tzolis, Tasos Douvikas, Andrews Tetteh, Charalampos Kostoulas and Alexandros Kyziridis
Ivan Jovanovic will select from a 26-man squad for this weekend's friendly international. The Serbian boss is unlikely to make too many changes from the side that earned a draw in Sweden.
Pantelis Hatzidiakos, Nectarios Triantis and Anastasios Douvikas are in contention to earn recalls after featuring as second-half substitutes earlier this week.
Italy Squad
Goalkeepers: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Giovanni Daffara and Lorenzo Palmisani
Defenders: Davide Bartesaghi, Fabio Chiarodia, Filippo Mane, Luca Reggiani, Pietro Comuzzo, Costantino Favasuli, Honest Ahanor, Niccolo Fortini and Samuele Inacio
Midfielders: Luca Lipani, Cher Ndour, Tommaso Berti, Giacomo Faticanti, Matteo Dagasso and Niccolò Pisilli
Forwards: Luigi Cherubini, Francesco Camarda, Pio Esposito, Luca Koleosho, Seydou Fini and Jeff Ekhator
Italian caretaker boss Silvio Baldini has an inexperienced 24-man squad available for Sunday's friendly fixture. Twenty players arrived into the international break without a senior cap, with 15 of those making their debuts in the narrow victory earlier this week.
Baldini, taking charge of the side following the departure of Gennaro Gattuso, expressed his pleasure with the Italian performance against Luxembourg.
"I am very satisfied; I knew these lads possessed strong values," Baldini said.
"Most of them are making their debut, and the fans here made us feel how much they care. It's never a given, but I knew they would win; the stars were on our side."
Verdict
Both nations have struggled in recent months, and a potentially drab affair could be on the cards in Crete.
Under 2.5 goals looks like a solid choice at the Pankritio Stadium.
Under 2.5 goals looks like a solid choice at the Pankritio Stadium.
Under 2.5 Goals
Total Goals
@9/10 - 3 Units
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