Senegal vs Morocco Predictions, Betting Tips & Lineups - AFCON Final
Senegal and Morocco are set to face off in the Africa Cup of Nations final on January 17, 2026. Known for their strong defenses, both teams have conceded only three goals collectively throughout the tournament. The final is poised to be a close and strategic match with minimal goals expected. With both teams looking to edge past each other defensively, a draw with extra time has high potential. Betting odds favor a low-scoring affair with under 2.5 goals predicted. Fans can expect a tactical showdown from two of Africa's football powerhouses.
- Senegal have conceded two goals at the Africa Cup of Nations
- Morocco have gone one better, breached by a penalty on home soil
- I am backing the final in Rabat to be a close encounter
Senegal and Morocco have reached the final on the back of strong defences, both teams combining to concede just three goals.
I don’t see many goals being scored in the final where extra time is a strong possibility.
Key Stats - Defeats Rare
- Senegal are undefeated in 17 of their last 18 matches.
- Morocco have seen under 2.5 goals in 12 of their last 14 matches against Senegal.
- Morocco are undefeated in their last 23 matches.
HTH - Atlas Lions on Top
Morocco have dominated Senegal over the years, earning a 10-3 advantage alongside six draws.
The last clash came in the 2025 African Nations Championship semi-finals, a 1-1 draw before Morocco won the penalty shootout.
Senegal's Stingy Defence
Senegal’s defence has been a big reason for their success at the Africa Cup of Nations. They conceded once in the group stage, in a 1-1 draw against Congo.
Two 3-0 victories over Botswana and Benin proved their attack can come to the fore. Ibrahim Mbaye came off the bench to wrap up a 3-1 win against Sudan in the Round of 16.
Pape Thiaw’s side had few problems in the quarter-finals, Iliman Ndiaye’s goal enough to earn a 1-0 win over Mali.
The Lions of Teranga completely shut down Egypt in the semis, winning 1-0 in Tangier. Sadio Mane pounced on a loose ball to score in the 78th minute, Senegal ending with 0.33-0.12 xG.
Thiaw was pleased with the attitude his team showed, saying: “We are very happy to have reached the final. It was not easy against a good side like Egypt.”
“My players were determined to win the match and their determination showed on the pitch. I pay tribute to Egypt as they played well and gave us a very good match. Now we will focus on preparing for the final and will apply ourselves to it.”
Senegal Predicted Line Up & Team News
Senegal (4-3-3) Edouard Mendy; Krepin Diatta, Mamadou Sarr, Moussa Niakhate, El Hadji Malick Diouf; Lamine Camara, Idrissa Gueye, Pape Gueye; Iliman Ndiaye, Nicolas Jackson, Sadio Mane
Kalidou Koulibaly and Habib Diarra are suspended with Mamadou Sarr and Lamine Camara to come into the starting side.
Nicolas Jackson got the start against Egypt and could retain his spot ahead of Cherif Ndiaye and Habib Diallo.
Morocco Handling the Pressure
Morocco have been under pressure as hosts and favourites to win AFCON but taken it in their stride. Like their final opponents, one goal was conceded in the group stage, a 1-1 draw against Mali.
Walid Regragui’s side beat Comoros 2-0 and dominated Zambia, Ayoub El Kaabi scoring twice in a 3-0 victory. Brahim Diaz scored in all three matches and found the net again in a comprehensive 1-0 win over Tanzania.
The Atlas Lions got it done against Cameroon in the quarter-finals, winning 2-0 in Rabat. Diaz scored first and Ismael Saibari wrapping it up as they held their opponents to 0.46 xG.
Morocco kept it tighter against Nigeria in the semi-finals, keeping a fourth successive clean sheet as the clash ended 0-0 after extra time. They held their nerve to win the shootout and reach a third AFCON final.
Regragui continued to thank the home supporters, saying: “I thank everyone who supported us. We received very touching messages, and they had a big impact on us.”
“I thank our players, we are very proud of them, and I also thank the Moroccan fans who truly deserve this achievement. We suffered a lot, and reaching the Africa Cup of Nations final on home soil is a beautiful gift.”
“Now we must think about physical recovery quickly because we made a huge effort. We played extra time, the match was difficult, and it consumed a lot of energy.”
Morocco Predicted Line Up & Team News
Morocco (4-1-4-1) Yassine Bounou; Achraf Hakimi, Nayef Aguerd, Adam Masina, Noussair Mazraoui; Neil El Aynaoui; Brahim Diaz, Bilal El Khannouss, Ismael Saibari, Abdessamad Ezzalzouli; Ayoub El Kaabi
Romain Saiss picked up a hamstring injury against Comoros and hasn’t featured since. Adam Masina will continue partnering Nayef Aguerd in central defence.
Sofyan Amrabat failed to get off the bench against Nigeria but might an option off the bench. Neil El Aynaoui has earned the holding midfield role.
Regragui will resist making changes here despite going to a penalty shootout in the semi-finals.
Verdict
Senegal and Morocco have reached the final on the back of strong defences, both teams combining to concede just three goals.
I don’t see many goals being scored in the final where extra time is a strong possibility.
Under 2.5 Goals
Total Goals
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Draw
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0-0 Draw
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