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Brisbane Broncos vs Dolphins NRL Betting Tips - Staggs to score in a Broncos win

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
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Last updated: Wed 25 Mar 2026 19:59
Brisbane Broncos are set to clash with the Dolphins following a morale-boosting comeback win against the Storm. Historically dominant over the Dolphins, Brisbane has won five out of six encounters with a strong average margin. The team's recent performance indicates potential to cover the -3.5 point spread, with games often staying under 50.5 total points. Meanwhile, the Dolphins, having recently secured a rare win at Shark Park, are battling consistency as they prepare for this key match. Kotoni Staggs remains a crucial player to watch as Brisbane aims for victory.
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Jeremy Darke 25 Mar 2026
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  • Broncos have won 5 out of 6 matches against the Dolphins.
  • Recently secured a comeback win, boosting team morale.
  • Matches typically go under 50.5 points.
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kotoni staggs broncos
Kotoni Staggs of the Broncos (Getty Images)

Brisbane Broncos vs Dolphins Preview


Brisbane produced a stunning comeback to get their first win of the year last week. That should be the turning point for the reigning premiers, who can cover the -3.5 against neighbours the Dolphins.

  • Brisbane have won by 6 points or more in all 5 of their victories over the Dolphins 
  • Only once has the game total gone over 50 points in the 6 matches between the Broncos and Dolphins.
  • 4 of 6 matches involving the Dolphins and Brisbane in 2026 have gone under the 50.5 total.
  • Kotoni Staggs has 3 tries in his last 2 games against the Dolphins.

Head to Head 


Brisbane have won five of the six matches against the Dolphins with an average winning margin of 9.2 points and no less than six points.

The Broncos won both matches last season, 20-12 and 38-28.

Five of the six matches played have gone under the game total. 

Brisbane Broncos Storm Back


Brisbane’s season was in dire straits, down 14-0 at halftime versus the Storm last Friday, facing their third consecutive loss, but a little magic Mag roughed the boys at halftime and they came back against the Storm, shutting out Melbourne in the second half and putting up 18 points.

Brisbane weren’t a different team than they had been for the first five halves of footy this season. Things just stuck. The Broncos completed 13 of 21 sets in the first 40 min vs Melbourne then went 20/22 in the second.

Brisbane are obviously as good as any team in the comp when they get it right like they did in the second half against the Storm. We will now see what the Broncos are all about, without the Premiership hangover.

Dolphins Get Rare NSW Win


The Dolphins looked good against the Sharks last week, getting a rare win in NSW and at Shark Park of all places, beating Cronulla 38-10.

The outside backs of the Dolphins were clinical, racking up 117 run metres or more and all 5 being involved in line breaks or tries. Jack Averillo continues to be one of the most underrated players in the NRL, scoring twice while also running for 200 metres, the most of any Dolphin.

The fear for Kristian Wolf and the Dolphins is consistency. We have seen three different performances from the group in three games this season but the last two weeks have shown positive signs. 

Verdict

Kotoni Staggs is backed to score a try as Brisbane cover the 3.5 points as the favourites in a match that will goes under 50.5 points.

Best Bet1: Brisbane -3.5 Handicap/Line @10/11 at Hollywood bets - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 50.5 Game Total @10/11 at bet365 - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Kotoni Staggs Anytime Tryscorer @23/20 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Kotoni Staggs First Tryscorer @10/1 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Brisbane -3.5
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