Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina Betting Tips & Live Stream – Sabalenka Holds the Upper Hand at the French Open
Aryna Sabalenka enters the French Open third-round clash with Daria Kasatkina as the clear favorite, owing to her outstanding Grand Slam record and head-to-head dominance (7-2) over Kasatkina. While Kasatkina has shown notable resilience this week and is enjoying some regained form, her record against Top 10 players in majors (2–12) suggests an uphill task. Sabalenka’s power and consistency are expected to prevail, although Kasatkina may be able to compete and win games in each set.
- Sabalenka is on a long Grand Slam third-round and Top 50 winning streak
- She leads their head-to-head 7-2 and is favored vs Kasatkina
- Kasatkina’s strong recent form likely won’t stop Sabalenka’s advance
Kasatkina’s resilience has been impressive this week, but Sabalenka’s power and form still make her the clear favorite, despite some resistance from the Russian.
Sabalenka's Streak Under Spotlight
- Aryna Sabalenka has not lost a third-round Grand Slam match since 2022.
- She is currently on a 35-match winning streak against players outside the Top 50 in Grand Slams.
- Daria Kasatkina holds a 3–4 record in third-round matches at the French Open.
- She owns a 2–12 record against Top 10 players in Grand Slams.
HTH - Aryna Sabalenka leads 7-2
| Year | Event | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Berlin | Grass | R16 | Sabalenka | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 2024 | Brisbane | Hard | QF | Sabalenka | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 2023 | US Open | Hard | R16 | Sabalenka | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 2023 | Cincinnati WTA | Hard | R16 | Sabalenka | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 2022 | San Jose WTA | Hard | QF | Kasatkina | 4-6, 7-5, 6-0 |
| 2021 | Madrid WTA | Clay | 2R | Sabalenka | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 2021 | Australian Open | Hard | 2R | Sabalenka | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 2020 | French Open | Clay | 2R | Sabalenka | 7-6, 6-0 |
| 2019 | Beijing | Hard | 2R | Kasatkina | 6-4, 7-6 |
Sabalenka Chasing Last Year's Result
Aryna Sabalenka reached the third round at the French Open after straight-set wins over Jessica Bouzas Maneiro and Elsa Jacquemot. She won 6-4, 6-2 in the opening round before following it up with a 7-5, 6-2 victory.
The Belarusian made a flying start to the season, winning 23 of her first 24 matches and lifting the titles at the Sunshine Double events. Since the move to clay, however, she has already picked up losses against Hailey Baptiste in Madrid and Sorana Cirstea in Rome.
Those results are below the level she produced on clay last year. At this point of the season in 2025, Sabalenka had won 17 of her 20 clay-court matches and reached three finals from four tournaments.
Her record in French Open third-round matches has also changed completely in recent years. After losing her first three matches at this stage, she has won the last three and turned each of them into quarterfinal runs or better, including a place in the final last year.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Belarus |
| Age | 28 (5 May 1998) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 1 |
| Career High | 1 (11 September 2023) |
| Elo Ranking | 1 (Rating: 2240) |
| Tour level titles | 24 |
Kasatkina Keeps Her Run Going
Daria Kasatkina produced a remarkable comeback against Susan Bandecchi, winning 7-5, 7-6 to reach the third round. She trailed 1-5 in the opening set and later found herself 3-5 down in the second before turning the match around.
The Australian struggled badly for results during the opening months of the season. She managed only four match wins across the first four months and often exited tournaments early.
Things have started to change in recent weeks. Kasatkina won the WTA 125 title in La Bisbal and followed it with her first tour-level quarterfinal in more than a year at Strasbourg.
She holds a 3-4 record in French Open third-round matches but has won her last three at this stage. Those runs included her best result in Paris, a semifinal appearance in 2022.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Australia |
| Age | 29 (7 May 1997) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 53 |
| Career High | 8 (24 October 2022) |
| Elo Ranking | 46 (Rating: 1823) |
| Tour level titles | 8 |
Verdict
Daria Kasatkina’s resilience this week has been impressive, but that style of play may not be enough to seriously trouble Aryna Sabalenka. The world No. 1 is still expected to come through comfortably, although Kasatkina should be capable of winning a few games in each set.
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He provides expert analysis, betting predictions and tournament guides as FreeTips' tennis editor. You will find him predicting the best games each day from the WTA Tour.
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