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Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints AFL Betting Tips - Saints to cover in an Adelaide Oval thriller

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Fri 17 Apr 2026 09:01

Adam Cusworth 17 Apr 2026

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Adelaide Crows and St Kilda Saints both stand at 2-3 ahead of a crucial match.
Adelaide strong at home, winning recent competitions against St Kilda.
Key players to watch: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera & Josh Worrell for disposals.

Expired

Ross Lyon's St Kilda can cover (Getty Images)

Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints Expert Preview
Head to Head Stats
Adelaide Crows Snap Losing Run
St Kilda Saints Pick Up After Slow Start
Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints Team List & News

Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints Expert Preview

This clash shapes as an early-season eight-pointer with Adelaide and St Kilda both sitting 2-3 after tough openings to the season. I think Saints can stay within the +14.5 line in what promises to be a thriller.

Four of St Kilda’s five matches in 2026 have been decided by less than 15 points.
Adelaide are averaging 86 points per game this season, the Saints are averaging 82.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has had 25+ disposals in his past three matches.
Josh Worrell is averaging over 25 disposals this season.

Head to Head Stats

Adelaide have been big winners in the past three contests, winning by 63, 32 and 52. All three were at Adelaide Oval and the Crows have an 8-2 record over the Saints at the venue.

They piled on 21.9 to 10.12 in the Round 1 meeting last season, with Darcy Fogarty kicking four goals and Riley Thilthorpe three, while Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera had 27 disposals.

Adelaide Crows Snap Losing Run

Adelaide lost three in a row, with those losses coming by eight points or fewer, before snapping that streak with their 28-point win over Carlton.

The match against the Blues was their first this season against a non-finalist from 2025, in what has been a tough first month. They now sit in 11th spot on the ladder with a 2-3 win-loss record.

They opened with a 14-point win over Collingwood and have since gone down to the Western Bulldogs by six, Geelong by eight and Fremantle by two. They were all top-eight sides in 2025.

The Crows were a bit slow out of the blocks, conceding seven goals in the first term before kicking nine of the next 11. Against Fremantle the week prior, they were down by 34 points before mounting a comeback and hitting the lead in the last term, only to go down by two points.

St Kilda Saints Pick Up After Slow Start

St Kilda also come in with a 2-3 win-loss record and have won two of their past three, while they matched the premiers, Brisbane, two matches ago before being blown out late in the 33-point loss.

They went down in the inside 50 count to Port Adelaide last weekend but defended well in the 14-point win, while Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera was a key difference between the two sides, collecting 28 disposals and two goals.

He has had 25+ in his past three matches. Jack Sinclair averages just under 30 and has hit that mark in three of five, while he had 29 in the other.

The win by St Kilda was their second in a row at Adelaide Oval after defeating the Power a year ago at their previous visit, but they had lost their previous five at the venue. They have won just two of their past eight against interstate opposition outside of Victoria.

Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints Team List & News

Adelaide's Jordan Dawson is out for personal reasons, while Jake Soligo and Mitch Hinge are injured. Jordon Butts returns.

Liam Stocker returns in the Saints’ only change.

Verdict

Adelaide Crows v St Kilda Saints

Close one in store with total points under in play. Wanganeen-Milera and Josh Worrell amongst the disposals for respective sides.

St Kilda +14.5

Handicap

@9/10 - 1 Unit

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Under 178.5

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Wanganeen-Milera 25+

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Josh Worrell

To Have 25+ disposals

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