Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues Tips - Blues to take another step in fairytale run
The 2026 AFL Round 17 match sees the Carlton Blues, unstoppable after winning six straight, poised to continue their remarkable resurgence against the struggling Richmond Tigers. Under interim coach Josh Fraser, Carlton’s midfield, powered by Patrick Cripps and Jagga Smith, is in top form, while Richmond remains competitive in spells but lacks the experience for a full four-quarter effort. With more attacking options, improved pressure, and a settled line-up, the Blues are recommended to cover the line and further their charge toward the finals.
- Carlton riding a 6-game winning streak and strong midfield form.
- Richmond’s young, injury-hit lineup likely to struggle for four quarters.
- Blues expected to cover the line and extend their finals push.
2026 Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues Preview
- 2026 Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues Preview
- Head to Head
- Richmond Tigers Form Analysis
- Richmond Tigers Team News
- Carlton Blues Form Analysis
- Carlton Blues Team News
Carlton will continue their unlikely charge towards September with a dominant win over Richmond when the two sides meet in AFL Round 17.
The Blues have won six in a row, coming from 1-8 to be 7-8 and within striking distance of a spot in the top 10. They will have too much midfield firepower for the young Tigers.
The Blues have transformed into one of the competition's form teams, with their pressure, contest work and ball movement all improving dramatically over the past six weeks. They have rediscovered their identity around the contest and are consistently generating repeat inside 50s, making life difficult for opposition defences.
That shapes as a major concern for Richmond, who have been competitive for periods against quality opposition but continue to concede decisive momentum swings. Against the more experienced sides, one poor quarter has regularly proven costly, and it is difficult to see the Tigers containing Carlton's midfield for four quarters.
Patrick Cripps remains the driving force behind Carlton's resurgence and looms as one of the best betting plays of the round. The dual Brownlow Medallist has produced 30 or more disposals in eight of his past 10 matches against Richmond and continues to dominate contested football while impacting the scoreboard.
Jagga Smith has quickly established himself as another key piece of Carlton's midfield. The exciting youngster collected 32 disposals against Richmond on debut in Round 1 and is coming off another outstanding performance. His ability to spread from stoppage and link Carlton's transition game makes him a strong chance to again find plenty of the football.
Richmond's young midfield continues to develop and Tim Taranto has been leading from the front, but the Tigers are still learning to sustain their intensity and execution across four quarters. Carlton's experience around the contest should gradually wear them down in the Round 17 contest.
The Blues have multiple avenues to goal and are no longer relying on one or two key forwards. Harry McKay has rediscovered his confidence, while Talor Byrne, Francis Evans and the small forwards have added another dimension to the attack.
With confidence high, their pressure game thriving and Richmond still rebuilding, Carlton look well placed to cover the line and continue their remarkable charge towards the finals.
- Carlton have won six matches in a row.
- The Blues were 53-point winners over West Coast last weekend.
- Patrick Cripps has had 30+ disposals in eight of his past 10 matches against Richmond
- Jagga Smith had 32 disposals in his only match against Richmond.
Head to Head
Carlton were four-point winners in the Round 1 meeting this season and have won three of the past four between the two sides.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from;
- Patrick Cripps (Blues) - 30+ disposals in eight of his past 10 against the Tigers, including his past four
- Jagga Smith (Blues) - 32 disposals in the Round 1 encounter on debut
- Tim Taranto (Tigers) - 25+ disposals in his past three against the Blues
- Tom Lynch (Tigers) - Two or more goals in five of his past six against Carlton
Richmond Tigers Form Analysis
Richmond have won just two matches this season - an 11-point win over West Coast in Round 8, as well as an 18-point triumph against Essendon in Round 11.
They have been competitive in patches in recent weeks but are struggling to maintain intensity and execution across four quarters against quality opposition. Their injury-hit list has forced inexperienced players into major roles and they have often been overrun late in games.
Last week it was a 34-point loss to Collingwood. Richmond showed some promising signs, with Sam Cumming producing 27 disposals, a game-high 12 contested possessions and four clearances, while Tim Taranto booted four goals from 26 disposals.
Jayden Short is Richmond's leading ball winner, averaging just under 25 disposals per game, while Taranto has recorded 25 or more disposals in three of his past five matches, collecting 23 and 24 in the other two.
Richmond Tigers Team News
Taj Hotton suffered a corked thigh in the loss to Collingwood and will need to prove his fitness. The Tigers could be bolstered by the returns of Tom Lynch, Josh Smillie, Luke Trainor and Harry Armstrong, who are all closing in on full fitness. Sam Lalor is expected to need another week or two.
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
It has been a stunning turnaround by Carlton since the club parted ways with Michael Voss. The Blues have won six straight matches under caretaker coach Josh Fraser and are making a strong finals run, something that seemed unlikely when they were 1-8. They are now 7-8 and sit in 12th position, just half a game behind Collingwood, who occupy a top-10 spot.
They have rediscovered their pressure, contest work and ability to sustain intensity across four quarters. After struggling badly with momentum swings and second-half fadeouts earlier in the season, Carlton are now far more connected, with their resurgence built around pressure, territory and transition.
Carlton's leaders have driven the turnaround, led by Patrick Cripps, who has returned to dominant form through the midfield. The two-time Brownlow Medallist has had 30 or more disposals in five of his past seven matches and 29 in another. Sam Walsh had 33 disposals last weekend and has recorded 30 or more in three of his past four.
The Blues have found multiple avenues to goal and Harry McKay has rediscovered his form, coming off three goals against West Coast, while Talor Byrne also booted three. McKay has kicked three goals in two of his past three matches, while Francis Evans has notched two or more in each of his past two.
Carlton Blues Team News
Carlton have a settled line-up after making no changes last week. Jacob Weitering is pushing to return from a calf injury, while Jordan Boyd, Ollie Hollands, Adam Saad and Lewis Young all have solid VFL form and are press
Verdict
Blues to cover with Cripps and Smith finding plenty of footy
Carlton -35.5
Line
@7/8 - 1 Unit
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Patrick Cripps 30+
Player Disposals
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Jagga Smith 30+
Player Disposals
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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