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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips - Back the Phillies to seal MLB Wild Card Series

leigh-copson
Editor
Last updated: Thu 01 Oct 2026 06:09
The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves are set for a decisive playoff showdown. Despite Atlanta’s home advantage, Philadelphia enters with strong momentum after a dramatic Game 2 win and will start their ace, Zach Wheeler (14-5, 3.00 ERA). Wheeler previously outperformed Atlanta’s Grant Holmes (10-6, 3.44 ERA) and has a record of silencing Braves’ hitters. With the Phillies having won two of the last three meetings in Atlanta, the analysis favors Philadelphia to win and progress, recommending a Moneyline bet on the Phillies and the total runs to go under 7.5.
Leigh Copson 01 Oct 2026
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  • Phillies have momentum after a dramatic Game 2 victory
  • Zach Wheeler gives Philadelphia a pitching advantage over Atlanta's Grant Holmes
  • Expert prediction: Phillies win Moneyline & Under 7.5 total runs
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Tips
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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Verdict

Atlanta Braves won the series opener but now find themselves on the back foot after a stunning late show win in Game 2 for Philadelphia Phillies. 

With momentum on their side and Zach Wheeler a projected starter, I'm backing the Phillies to win the decider.
  • Zach Wheeler won as a starter against Atlanta last month
  • Grant Holmes is 0-2 against Philadelphia this season
  • Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of the last 3 meetings in Atlanta
  • The Under cashed in Zach Wheeler's last game against Atlanta

Head To Head

  • Atlanta Braves lead the all-time series 1344-1227-15
  • Philadelphia Phillies won 4-3 when the two teams last met on September 30

Philadelphia Phillies Form

Philadelphia booked their place in the playoffs by finishing second in the NL East with an 88-74 record, and entered the postseason having ended a four-game losing run with back-to-back home wins.

The Phillies were unable to make it three-in-a-row in the opening game of this series, as they were beaten 5-3 in Atlanta, but they bounced back 24 hours later with a 4-3 win over the Braves.

DateOppositionW/LScore
Sep-29 at Atlanta Braves L 3-5
Sep-30 at Atlanta Braves W 4-3

Atlanta Braves Form

Atlanta secured their playoff place by finishing top of the NL East with a 94-68 record, but came into the postseason having lost five of their final seven regular season games.

The Braves made a winning start to this series, beating Philadelphia 5-3 in Game 1, only to then drop the second meeting, 4-3..

DateOppositionW/LScore
Sep-29 vs Philadelphia Phillies W 5-3
Sep-30 vs Philadelphia Phillies L 3-4

Projected Starting Pitchers

PlayerTeamRecordERAStrikeoutsInnings
Zach Wheeler Philadelphia Phillies 14-5 3.00193 162
Grant Holmes Atlanta Braves 10-6 3.44 115 151.2

Verdict

Atlanta have home advantage, but Philadelphia have momentum and a starter who kept the Braves bats in check last month.

We are backing the Phillies to complete their comeback and advance in the playoffs.

Best Bet1: Philadelphia Win Moneyline @5/6 at bet365 - 4 Units
Best Bet2: Under 7.5 Total Runs @4/5 at dabble - 2 Units
Philadelphia Win
Moneyline
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Under 7.5
Total Runs
@4/5 - 2 Units
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leigh-copson
Leigh Copson

Sports Editor • 25+ Years Experience, US & Combat Sports Specialist

US sports writer covering the NFL, NBA, NHL, boxing and MMA, with previews, predictions and betting tips across the major American leagues.

During his career at the Press Association and online sports sites including FreeTips and ExpertPicks.com, he has covered some of the biggest sporting events on the planet, including the Super Bowl, the Champions League Final and the World Cup Final.

He has also covered almost every major boxing match and UFC fight card during this time.. His specialist sports are American Football, Basketball, Ice Hockey, Boxing, Mixed Martial Arts and Football.

Follow more of Leigh's work on Muckrack and connect with him on LinkedIn.

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