Belgium vs Italy Tips & Predictions – Draw is a Value Bet in the UEFA Nations League
Belgium face Italy on Sunday, with the tip favouring a draw. Italy's confidence is high following a win over France, and they have lost only one of their last eight matches. This recent form and momentum suggest Italy are capable of holding Belgium, making a draw the recommended outcome. The analysis is based on Italy's strong run and increased self-belief, with no additional team news or market conditions specified.
- Italy are one point away from clinching the playoffs
- We are backing them to hold Belgium to a draw
- Check our full preview for Belgium vs Italy below
If anyone knows how to play for a result, it's Italy under experienced leader Roberto Mancini. One point is all they need here to reach the quarter-finals, and I like the chances of a draw on Sunday.
- Key Stats
- Azzurri Dominate H2H
- A Must-Win Situation for the Hosts
- Italy Coming off an Inspiring Victory
- Team News & Predicted Lineups
Key Stats
- Belgium are winless in 5 of their last 6 matches against Italy.
- Italy are unbeaten in 8 of their last 9 matches.
Azzurri Dominate H2H
This is going to be 28th head to head meeting between these nations, Italy having a 17-5 advantage while five games ended without a winner.
A Must-Win Situation for the Hosts
Belgium have accumulated nine points from their five games in the UEFA Nations League so far and will need to beat Italy in the final round to reach the playoffs.
The Red Devils conceded an early goal against Turkey in Izmir on Thursday, but recovered with two quick goals, Kevin De Bruyne and Charles De Ketelaere finding the net to secure a 2-1 victory.
Both of their defeats came against France 4-1 & 1-0, while beating Italy 2-0 in the opening round and Turkey 3-0 in early October.
Italy Coming off an Inspiring Victory
Roberto Mancini's second tenure as the Italian head coach started with a disappointing 2-0 home loss to Belgium, but then bounced back with a dominant 4-1 win against Turkey in Izmir.
Their October performances were great, claiming a point against France 1-1 on the road where they had 1.54-1.25 xG, followed by a 3-1 home victory against Turkey in Bologna.
The Azzurri were tagged underdogs on Thursday against France at San Siro, conceded an early goal, but then scored three unanswered goals to stun Les Bleus 3-1. Francesco Esposito was named man of the match, scoring a brace, Davide Frattesi also on target.
Team News & Predicted Lineups
Belgium (4-3-3) Senne Lammens; Timothy Castagne, Nathan Ngoy, Brandon Mechele, Maxim De Cuyper; Youri Tielemans, Romeo Lavia, Kevin De Bruyne; Diego Moreira, Charles De Ketelaere, Jeremy Doku
Senne Lammens is expected to start since Thibout Courtois is out with an injury. Romelu Lukaku recovered from a hip injury but is likely to start on bench here. Romeo Lavia is back after serving a suspension on Thursday.
Senne Lammens is expected to start since Thibout Courtois is out with an injury. Romelu Lukaku recovered from a hip injury but is likely to start on bench here. Romeo Lavia is back after serving a suspension on Thursday.
Italy (4-3-3) Gianluigi Donnarumma; Michael Kayode, Giorgio Scalvini, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori; Nicolo Barella, Sandro Tonali, Davide Frattesi; Valerio Vergara, Francesco Pio Esposito, Nicolo Cambiaghi
Nicolo Zaniolo, Moise Kean, Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Giacomo Raspadori were out of contention due to injuries. Rising star Francesco Esposito is expected to lead the attack once again after netting a brace against France.
Nicolo Zaniolo, Moise Kean, Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Giacomo Raspadori were out of contention due to injuries. Rising star Francesco Esposito is expected to lead the attack once again after netting a brace against France.
Verdict
Azzurri's confidence is going through the roof after beating France on Thursday. Italy were beaten in just one of their last eight games and I like their chances of holding Belgium to a draw on Sunday.
Draw
Full-Time Result
@29/10 - 2 Units
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With a particular love for the English Premier League, he's been writing about sports online for more than a decade since completing a degree in literature and sports journalism.
The primary areas of focus include top European football leagues (mainly EPL, La Liga, Serie A & Bundesliga), basketball (EuroLeague, NBA & WNBA), Handball and Volleyball.
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