Why Spain's Recent Draws Shouldn't Cause Concern
Recent Spain friendlies against Iraq and Egypt have sparked concern, but those results overlook crucial context. Spain fielded largely non-tournament players and rested key squad members, giving a misleading picture of their form. Underlying stats show Spain dominating possession and chances with only one goal conceded in three matches. Their upcoming match against Peru will be the first serious test with the full starting XI expected. Market odds remain strong for Spain, suggesting confidence remains high among experts despite public doubts.
- Spain's recent draws were with mostly non-tournament players on the pitch.
- Key stars will feature against Peru, offering the first full-strength test.
- Underlying stats remain strong; experts consider Spain top contenders.
Spain head into their final World Cup warm-up against Peru on the back of two underwhelming results. A 0-0 draw against ten-man Egypt at the end of March. A 1-1 draw against Iraq in A Coruña last Thursday.
The European champions, the second favourites for the tournament, have failed to win their last two friendlies against opposition ranked outside the world's top 50.
Read the social media reaction, and Spain are in crisis. Read the lineup sheet, and a different story emerges.
The starting XI that wasn't
Luis de la Fuente named a 26-man squad for the World Cup on 31 May.
He also called up nine additional players for training support, bodies to fill out sessions, give the medical staff coverage, and protect the tournament squad from minute overload in the warm-up matches.
Against Iraq, eight of those nine non-tournament players were on the pitch at full-time. Spain ended the friendly with a starting XI built largely from players who will not even travel to North America.
That single detail rewrites the headline.
What Spain actually rested
The Iraq match was missing Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams, Pedri and David Raya. Yamal has been recovering from a partial tear of the biceps femoris in his left leg since 22 April, the three other absentees were on precautionary rests after a long club season.
The Egypt result a few months earlier carried similar caveats. Spain registered 2.50 expected goals to Egypt's 0.15, 61% possession and 25 shots to four. They created tournament-winning chances. They simply did not finish.
The same was true of Iraq. Ferran Torres scored inside 16 minutes before Spain reverted to a development-team XI for long stretches, with Merchas Doski levelling with a moment of individual quality on the half-hour.
The numbers behind the noise
Across the three friendlies that opened Spain's 2026 calendar, Serbia, Egypt and Iraq, La Roja have produced an aggregate scoreline of 4-1 and an underlying xG difference that paints them as outright tournament favourites.
The Serbia 3-0 came with Mikel Oyarzabal scoring twice inside the first half against a side that finished second in their Euro qualifying group.
The pattern is consistent. Spain dominate possession, generate chances, and either bury them quickly (Serbia, Iraq's opening goal) or squander a handful (Egypt, the second half against Iraq).
The team's defensive numbers tell their own story: one goal conceded across the three recent friendlies, against opposition ranked above the level of anyone Spain will meet in Group H.
What Peru changes
The friendly against Peru at the Estadio Cuauhtémoc is the first match of this cycle where de la Fuente has every reason to field his actual tournament XI.
The squad will already be in Mexico, acclimatising at 2,160 metres of altitude. The Cape Verde opener is six days later in Atlanta. There is no longer a tactical reason to hide the starting eleven.
De la Fuente confirmed publicly that Yamal may feature for "a few minutes", with the medical team checking on him daily. Pedri, Williams and Raya are expected to start. Oyarzabal, Torres and Dani Olmo should all see meaningful minutes.
The Peru match will give the first proper read on this Spain side since Euro 2024. The Egypt and Iraq results were never read.
What the bookmakers already know
Spain are priced at -549 on the moneyline against Peru according to FOX Sports, reflecting an implied probability above 84%.
The market has not flinched at the Egypt or Iraq draws because the people pricing the match understand exactly what those friendlies were, a development exercise dressed up as preparation.
That gap between the headline reaction and the market reaction is where the value lives. Spain's underlying numbers are not the numbers of a team in crisis.
What to watch on Monday
Three things will tell you whether the Iraq performance was a warning sign or a non-event:
- Whether the starting front three contains any of Yamal, Williams or Oyarzabal in their natural positions.
- Whether Pedri and Rodri appear in the same midfield together for the first time since March.
- Whether Spain convert their first three clear chances rather than waste them.
If the answer to all three is yes, Spain will win comfortably. The Egypt and Iraq results will look very different in retrospect, exactly what de la Fuente has been planning for since the squad list was finalised.
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