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USA vs Paraguay Predictions & Tips – Stars and Stripes Tipped to Win

vedran-ostojic
Vedran Ostojic
Editor
Last updated: Sat 15 Nov 2025 09:51
In recent friendly matches, the USA has shown promising statistics by maintaining a higher expected goals (xG) figure than their opponents in four consecutive games. While they won two of these four matches, their overall dominant possession and xG underscore their competitive edge. In contrast, Paraguay has encountered difficulties when facing teams that control possession, indicating a strategic mismatch. Given these dynamics, a victory for the USA at home this Saturday against Paraguay is likely. Fans and sports analysts alike anticipate a strong performance from the USA.
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Vedran Ostojic 15 Nov 2025
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  • USA have created a lot of chances in their recent friendlies
  • We are backing them beat Paraguay this Saturday
  • Check our full match preview for USA vs Paraguay
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USA are tipped to beat Paraguay (Getty Images)

USA vs Paraguay Preview  


Paraguay usually commit heavily to defending, with most of their World Cup qualifying matches producing very few goals. I don’t think this approach will work against a USA side that consistently creates plenty of chances. I’m backing Mauro Pochettino’s men to win on Saturday. 

Stats  


  • USA have won 2 of their last 3 home matches. 
  • USA have won their last 2 matches against Paraguay. 
  • USA have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 matches against Paraguay. 
  • Paraguay have lost 2 of their last 4 away matches. 
  • Paraguay have seen under 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 8 matches. 

HTH  


USA have a 4-2 advantage against Paraguay with 2 draws in 10 head to head matches so far. 

The most recent one took place in March 2018, USA claiming a 1-0 victory in Carolina, Bobby Wood converting a penalty in the first half. 

Last 5 Meetings 



Competition
Date
Home
Score
Away
Friendly28/03/2018 USA1-0Paraguay
Copa America 201612/06/2016 USA1-0Paraguay
Friendly28/03/2011 USA0-1Paraguay
Copa America02/07/2007 USA1-3Paraguay
Friendly06/07/2003 USA2-0Paraguay


USA Form  

  
After losing the Gold Cup grand finals to Mexico 2-1 in July, the United States focused on playing international friendlies and their recent results are not encouraging ahead of the World Cup 2026. 

Mauricio Pochettino’s side outperformed South Korea in September in terms of stats, 2.23-0.74 xG and 17-5 shots, but lost that encounter 2-0 in front of the home crowd. 

They were more focused a couple of days later, deservedly beating Japan 2-0 with Alejandro and Folarin Balogun finding the net. 

The Stars and Stripes also played two friendlies in October, a 1-1 draw against Ecuador where they were once again more dominant side, while beating Australia 2-1 a couple of days later. 

Paraguay Form  

  
Paraguay’s rock-solid defending is one of the main reasons why they qualified for the World Cup 2026, conceding just 10 goals in 18 matches, collecting 28 points total. 

They have been struggling to keep their net intact in recent friendly matches though, recording a 2-2 draw against Japan in October, conceding equalizer in stoppage time. 

Next was a 2-0 loss to South Korea where Gustavo Alfaro’s side had just one shot on target, while allowing 2.05 xG to the Asian side. 

Squads & Team News  


Pochettino couldn’t count on injured Antonee Robinson, Tyler Adams and Alejandro Zendejas, while Josh Sargent, Timothy Weah and Weston McKennie withdrew from the national team to stay with their clubs. Tim Ream is going to be the captain, accumulating 78 appearances for USA so far. 

Goalkeepers: Matt Freese, Patrick Schulte, Roman Celentano, Jonathan Klinsmann 
Defenders: Tim Ream, Miles Robinson, Sergino Dest, Mark McKenzie, Joe Scally, Maximilian Arfsten, Alex Freeman, John Tolkin, Auston Trusty 
Midfielders: Cristian Roldan, Giovanni Reyna, Aidan Morris, Tanner Tessmann, Sebastian Berhalter, Timothy Tillman 
Forwards: Brenden Aaronson, Ricardo Pepi, Folarin Balogun, Haji Wright, Diego Luna 

As for the South American side, Angel Romero and Juan Espinola were not called up after featuring against South Korea in October. Cremonese’s Antonio Sanabria is the top scorer on this roster with 6 goals in 43 appearances. 

Goalkeepers: Roberto Fernandez, Orlando Gill, Aldo Perez 
Defenders: Gustavo Gomez, Junior Alonso, Omar Alderete, Juan Caceres, Blas Riveros, Gustavo Velazquez, Alan Benitez, Agustin Sandez, Alexis Duarte 
Midfielders: Miguel Almiron, Andres Cubas, Alejandro Romero Gamarra, Ramon Sosa, Diego Gomez, Damian Bobadilla, Matias Galarza, Braian Ojeda, Hugo Cuenca, Diego Gonzalez, Diego Leon, Lucas Romero 
Forwards: Antonio Sanabria, Julio Enciso, Alex Arce, Ronaldo Martinez 

Predicted Starting Lineups   


USA (4-4-2):


 Matt Freese, Antonee Robinson, Mark McKenzie, Auston Trusty, Tyler Freeman, Aidan Morris, Tanner Tessmann, Giovanni Reyna, Haji Wright, Folarin Balogun, Brenden Aaronson

Paraguay (4-2-3-1):
Roberto Fernandez, Cesar Benitez, Gustavo Gomez, Omar Alderete, Junior Alonso, Andres Cubas, Braian Ojeda, Hugo Cuenca, Diego Gomez, Miguel Almiron, Antonio Sanabria

Verdict

USA have played four friendly games since September, won two, but had higher xG than opposition on all four occasions. Paraguay have been struggling against teams which control possession, so a home win is the best bet on Saturday. 

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