2026 Brazil Presidential Election Odds - Flavio Bolsonaro favourite to take power in election
The Brazilian presidential election on October 4 is shaping up as a fiercely close contest, with Flávio Bolsonaro now favored by 1xBet odds to win the presidency at 1.73 (57.8% implied probability), ahead of President Lula at 2.00 (50%). Despite Lula leading first-round polling, betting markets hint at strong momentum for Bolsonaro. Both are nearly tied in runoff projections, making a second voting round highly likely. Renan Santos is a distant outsider according to both polls and odds. Expect a dramatic finale on October 25 if no candidate wins outright.
- Flávio Bolsonaro is the new betting market favourite for Brazil's presidency
- President Lula leads first-round polls but is just behind in betting odds and runoff projections
- A tight contest is expected, with a likely runoff if no candidate wins a majority on October 4
Brazil heads to the polls on October 4 with Flavio Bolsonaro now the narrow favourite in 1xBet’s presidential election winner market.
The Liberal senator is priced at 1.73, compared with 2.00 for President Lula to remain in power, making this a considerably closer contest than the first-round polling lead alone might suggest.
Bolsonaro is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is ineligible to stand having been incarcerated. Lula, meanwhile, is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term as president.
A survey published on 23 September put Lula on 45.8% in a first-round scenario and Bolsonaro on 43.4%. Its simulated runoff was tighter still: 47.7% for Lula and 47.4% for Bolsonaro, a difference within the poll’s margin of error.
Renan Santos polled at 4.5% in the first-round scenario.
If no candidate secures more than half of valid votes on 4 October, the top two will meet in a runoff on 25 October.
Latest Brazil Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Decimal odds | Raw implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 1.73 | 57.8% |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Renan Santos | 26.00 | 3.8% |
1xBet is home to a huge selection of global political betting markets.
Brazilian Presidential Election Leading Candidates
Flavio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator and the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate. As the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, he is carrying the right-wing challenge to Lula while his father remains barred from seeking office.
His 1.73 price makes him 1xBet’s favourite to win the presidency, but it does not mean he leads the first-round polls.
AtlasIntel/Bloomberg placed him 2.4 points behind Lula in its latest cited first-round scenario, while finding the pair statistically tied in a hypothetical runoff.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Lula is the sitting president and is seeking a fourth non-consecutive mandate. He launched his re-election bid at the Workers’ Party convention in August, presenting himself as a defender of Brazilian sovereignty amid pressure from the United States.
At 2.00 with 1xBet, Lula is a close second in the winner market despite leading the AtlasIntel/Bloomberg first-round survey.
That distinction matters - finishing ahead on 4 October would not settle the presidency if neither candidate crosses the threshold for an outright victory.
Renan Santos
Renan Santos is a distant outsider in the outright winner market at 26.00 with 1xBet.
AtlasIntel/Bloomberg gave him 4.5% in its first-round scenario, well behind Lula and Bolsonaro. He is 26.00 odds to win the election with a shock result.
He has worked for newspapers including the Daily Telegraph, agencies including Reuters and many online sites covering a range of sports including Atlas F1 and Bleacher Report.
A senior editor, he covers all major sports, betting industry news from across the world and loves a weekend bet.
Top Betting Sites
Betting offers
Upcoming Events
21 September 2026
- EMEA Masters 2026 Summer -
- Esports
23 September 2026
- ATP Chengdu -
- Tennis
- ATP Hangzhou -
- Tennis
24 September 2026
- VALORANT Champions 2026 -
- Esports
- EuroLeague 2026/27 -
- Basketball
Load More
Sports Tips Starts in
Today's Acca Tips
-
Soccer tips
-
Tennis tips
