2026 Brazil Presidential Election Odds - Flavio Bolsonaro Favourite Ahead Of Today’s Runoff
Brazilians head to the polls today for the second round of their presidential election, with Flavio Bolsonaro favoured to defeat incumbent president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro leads with 83% implied probability in betting markets after winning the first round by over 2.2 million votes. Despite narrow leads in the polls, the race remains competitive, and experts caution that the result is not guaranteed until officially declared.
- Flavio Bolsonaro is strongly favoured to win Brazil's presidential runoff against incumbent Lula, holding 83% betting market odds.
- Final polling suggests the race is closer than market odds imply, with neither candidate securing an outright majority in the first round.
- Lula remains within striking distance, but at only 17% probability in market pricing, he is considered the outsider.
Brazil votes today (Sunday 25 October) in Round 2 of the Presidential Election with Flavio Bolsonaro strongly favoured to defeat President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the runoff.
The final polls indicate that the election remains closely contested, but current odds show Bolsonaro as the man expected to take power following his victory in the Round 1 voting.
The Liberal Party senator advanced to the deciding vote after beating Lula by more than 2.2 million votes in the first round on 4 October.
Bolsonaro secured approximately 47% against the incumbent’s 45%, overturning pre-election polling expectations that Lula would finish ahead.
Neither candidate won an outright majority, leaving voters to choose between Bolsonaro and Lula in today’s two-candidate runoff.
Latest Brazil Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Decimal odds | Raw implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 1.19 | 83% |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 5.56 | 17% |
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Brazilian Presidential Election Leading Candidates
Flavio Bolsonaro
Flavio Bolsonaro is the Liberal Party senator challenging Lula and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
He reached the runoff after finishing first in the opening round and now holds a substantial advantage in prediction-market pricing.
His first-round success makes him the clear favourite, but final polling leads are narrow, leaving the election considerably more competitive than the market probabilities alone might imply.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Lula is the sitting Workers’ Party president and is seeking a fourth presidential term. He finished second in the first round voting but remains within reach of Bolsonaro in the final surveys.
At just 17% probability of winning the vote he is the market outsider, but the polling evidence does not support treating the result as settled ahead of the declaration.
He has worked for newspapers including the Daily Telegraph, agencies including Reuters and many online sites covering a range of sports including Atlas F1 and Bleacher Report.
A senior editor, he covers all major sports, betting industry news from across the world and loves a weekend bet.
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