Election odds: Burnham signals EU rethink and triple lock pension change
Prime Minister Andy Burnham, speaking at the Labour conference, stated that 'Brexit has done more harm than good' and promised to outline long-term options for the UK's relationship with the EU. While he did not call for rejoining the EU, his remarks signal a shift in Labour's position. Burnham also announced that Labour would maintain the current triple lock on state pensions until 2030, after which a revised system would fund a new National Care Service. The next general election is most likely to be in 2029 or later, according to latest odds.
- Andy Burnham said “Brexit has done more harm than good” on Tuesday and promised to set out options for Britain’s long-term relationship with the EU.
- The Prime Minister plans to change the state pension triple lock from 2030 if Labour wins the next general election.
- bet365 makes 2029 or later the 4/6 favourite for the year of that election; 2027 is next at 12/5.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham on Tuesday said “Brexit has done more harm than good” and promised to set out options for Britain’s long-term relationship with the EU.
Speaking at the Labour party conference in Liverpool, the PM also said he plans to change the annual state pension triple lock formula from April 2030 if Labour wins the next general election.
bet365 makes "2029 or later" the 4/6 favourite for the year of that election, with 2027 next at 12/5.
Mr Burnham has put Britain’s relationship with the EU and the future of the state pension triple lock at the heart of Labour’s plans for the next general election.
In his first Labour conference speech as Prime Minister on Tuesday, he said “Brexit hasn’t given us control” and argued that losing cooperation with European partners had weakened Britain’s control over immigration.
He then declared: “Brexit has done more harm than good" and promised to use a UK-EU summit later this year to set out different options for Britain’s long-term relationship with Europe and seek agreement on one of them.
He did not commit to the UK rejoining the EU. His remarks open a debate about the country’s direction, but they do not yet define a policy on membership.
Triple lock change planned after the election
Burnham also confirmed that Labour would keep the state pension triple lock unchanged for the rest of this parliament. If the party wins the next election, he plans to change the formula from April 2030 and use the resulting savings to help build a National Care Service.
The triple lock currently raises the state pension each year by the highest of inflation, earnings growth or 2.5%. Under Burnham’s proposal, the annual rise would be at least inflation or 2.5%. He said the pension would also retain its value relative to earnings over time, although the mechanism for doing so has not been detailed.
Burnham acknowledged its political risk, telling conference: "!I accept I may pay a political price but someone has to go through the pain barrier and rip the plaster off."
When will the next UK general election be?
| Yeaf of next general election | Latest odds |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 16/1 |
| 2027 | 12/5 |
| 2028 | 5/1 |
| 2029 or later | 4/6 |
Odds courtesy of bet365 and correct at time of writing and subject to change.
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