Ellis Park could define Rugby's Greatest Rivalry Tour
Rugby's Greatest Rivalry Tour is about to ignite with South Africa facing New Zealand at Ellis Park. South Africa, the current back-to-back world champions, enter as favorites with home advantage and squad depth. However, the All Blacks may benefit from more match practice in the buildup, giving them an early opportunity to upset the Springboks before they hit peak form. The forward battle and first Test at Ellis Park are crucial. A win for the All Blacks could reshape the series, but a loss would make their challenge much tougher.
- South Africa enters as favorites with home advantage and recent dominance.
- New Zealand’s extra match practice could be vital in the opening Test.
- Victory at Ellis Park is crucial for the All Blacks to change the tour's momentum.
The wait is almost over. Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry Tour kicks off in a matter of days, with South Africa and New Zealand preparing to renew one of the sport’s most famous rivalries at Ellis Park.
There has been some debate, particularly in the northern hemisphere, over the branding of the tour. Whatever your view of the name, there is little argument about the pedigree of the two teams involved.
Between them, South Africa and New Zealand have won seven of the 10 Rugby World Cups. The Springboks have four titles from only eight appearances at the tournament, while the All Blacks have lifted the Webb Ellis Cup three times.
For much of rugby’s professional era, New Zealand were the benchmark. Their record against virtually every major nation reflects that dominance, including a winning record against South Africa.
Right now, however, the balance of power has shifted.
The Springboks are back-to-back world champions, early favourites for the 2027 Rugby World Cup and have beaten New Zealand in five of their last six meetings. The only All Blacks victory in that period came at Eden Park in 2025.
That makes this four-Test series a fascinating examination of just how far New Zealand have come under Dave Rennie, and the opening Test at Ellis Park could tell us plenty.
Why the opening Test matters more for New Zealand
On paper, South Africa hold most of the advantages. They have greater depth, a settled core, home advantage and the confidence that comes from their recent record against the All Blacks.
There is, however, one area where New Zealand may have the edge going into the opener: game time.
The Springboks played three Nations Championship matches in July, comfortably accounting for England and Wales before Scotland pushed them for much of their encounter. Since then, their only match was a 17-10 warm-up victory in Argentina.
That was hardly a polished performance, although several important players, including Eben Etzebeth, Siya Kolisi and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, were returning after lengthy spells without Test rugby.
New Zealand's Nations Championship campaign included a narrow win over an understrength France, a match against Italy in which they took time to pull clear and a much more convincing performance against Ireland.
Since arriving in South Africa, the All Blacks have also played three provincial warm-up matches against the Stormers, Sharks and Bulls.
The Stormers competed well for long periods before New Zealand pulled away, the Sharks were swept aside 54-0 and the Bulls provided another useful examination despite eventually suffering a heavy defeat.
None of those results will decide what happens at Ellis Park, but the additional rugby could give New Zealand an important advantage in the opening exchanges of the series.
If the Springboks are slightly rusty, the All Blacks have to take advantage.
An opportunity the All Blacks cannot waste
South Africa can probably afford to lose the opening Test and still believe they can win the series.
It is much harder to say the same about New Zealand.
The All Blacks have enjoyed some success at Ellis Park over the years and arrive with momentum from their warm-up programme. A victory in Johannesburg would immediately put pressure on the world champions and change the complexion of the entire tour.
A defeat could have the opposite effect.
South Africa are likely to become stronger as the series progresses and their players accumulate more Test minutes. Rassie Erasmus will know that his side do not need to produce their best rugby immediately. An ugly victory at Ellis Park would do just fine.
New Zealand also have selection concerns. Will Jordan has yet to feature on tour because of injury. His attacking ability is unquestioned, but Rennie must decide whether he can risk throwing one of his most dangerous players into the first Test without any tour minutes behind him.
The second Test moves to Cape Town, where the All Blacks can expect considerable support, before the teams return to Johannesburg for the third encounter in South Africa. The fourth and final Test will take place in Baltimore in the United States.
That makes victory at Ellis Park particularly valuable for the tourists.
The battle up front will shape the series
Much has been made of the contrasting rugby identities of these two nations.
New Zealand traditionally want tempo, movement, offloads and forwards capable of handling the ball in space. South Africa have built their success around physical dominance, set-piece pressure and an ability to turn Test matches into brutal contests.
The Springboks have expanded their attacking game considerably in recent years, but the fundamentals remain.
For all the talent both teams possess out wide, the series could ultimately be decided much closer to the scrum.
New Zealand cannot allow South Africa to establish consistent dominance at scrum time. If the Springboks begin winning penalties, territory and momentum through their tight five, Rennie's side could find themselves playing the game almost entirely on South African terms.
There has already been some polite sparring through the media ahead of the opening Test. That is nothing unusual. In rugby, however, pre-match comments can have another purpose, particularly when attention turns towards refereeing interpretations at the breakdown, scrum and other highly contested areas.
Winning those battles will be every bit as important as what either backline can produce.
Can New Zealand strike first?
South Africa deserve to begin the series as favourites. They are the world's top-ranked team, have home advantage and possess extraordinary depth across their squad.
But writing off the All Blacks has rarely been a particularly wise approach.
New Zealand appear to be moving in the right direction under Rennie and this opening Test presents an opportunity. They have played more rugby in the build-up and may never get a better chance to catch the Springboks before Erasmus' side settles fully into the series.
If New Zealand win at Ellis Park, Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry Tour could develop into something special.
If they lose, the challenge becomes considerably harder.
For the All Blacks, the first Test may already feel like the biggest match of the tour.
He has always had a great passion for sport and this led him into the world of sports journalism, while coaching on the side. Since 2012 Ralph has worked as a journalist and covered many topics from business to sport.
Over the last seven years he has interviewed numerous top rugby and cricket players and coaches in South Africa.
Ralph has been betting on sports for the last ten years. He’s knowledgeable on numerous topics including football, rugby, cricket, tennis and golf.
He supports Manchester United (football), Cheetahs (rugby), Knights (cricket) and has a newly found appreciation for Dominic Thiem on the tennis courts.
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