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Southland vs Northland Betting Tips - Northland backed for NPC win over Southland

ralph-staniforth
Editor
Last updated: Thu 01 Oct 2026 01:58
Northland comes into this NPC fixture with strong momentum, having won five of their last seven games, while Southland have dropped five of their last six. Northland sits third on the ladder and pushes for a home play-off, whereas Southland languishes at 13th place. With Northland also leading the recent head-to-head record, they are tipped as firm favourites, expected to cover the -13.5 handicap. Lineups for both teams are confirmed, and Northland’s consistent performance makes them the recommended pick for this matchup.
Ralph Staniforth 3 hours ago
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  • Northland has won 5 of their last 7 matches; Southland has lost 5 of 6.
  • Northland sits 3rd on the NPC ladder, Southland 13th.
  • Northland expected to cover -13.5 handicap and secure home play-off.
Northland
Northland have been playing well this season (Getty Images)

Northland come into this fixture in good form while Southland have lost five of their last six. I am backing a home win here.

Key Stats - Northland in Fine Form


  • Northland have won 5 of their last 7 fixtures. 
  • Northland have won 2 of their last 4 away games against Southland.
  • Southland have lost 5 of their last 6 games.

Northland Hold Recent Advantage


Northland lead 7-6 with one draw in their last 14 matches against Southland.

Southland Struggling for Results


The Southland Stags could only score a converted try in the first half against Canterbury last weekend, going into the half-time break trailing 17-7.

Southland  added two converted tries to their tally in the second stanza, but it was not enough, losing 34-21 away to Canterbury. 

Earlier in their campaign, the Stags lost 41-14 to Otago at home and 36-35 to Manawatu away, beat Waikato 32-31 at home, lost 46-17 away to Tasman, and 47-24 away to Counties Manukau, then beat Bay of Plenty 43-12 at home before losing 55-19 away to Taranaki. 

Southland are 13th in the National Provincial Championship standings with 13 points from nine games. 

The Southland Stags have not had much success this season, having lost five of their last six matches, and they have suffered five defeats in their previous seven home games.

Northland Winning Regularly


Northland scored two converted tries in the first half against Counties Manukau at home last weekend to lead 19-5 at the break.

However, the Taniwha could only add a single try to the score in the second half, opening the door for Counties Manukau to come out on top 22-19.   

Before that disappointing performance, Northland thumped Manawatu 40-14 at home, lost 34-21 away to Bay of Plenty, and defeated Taranaki 42-0 at home, Canterbury 36-12 away, and Tasman 20-10 at home, and lost 57-42 away to North Harbour before beating Waikato 34-17 at home, and thrashing Wellington 52-28 away.   

The Taniwha are third in the National Provincial Championship table with 33 points from nine matches.

Northland will start confidently against Southland, as they have recorded five victories in their last seven games, and must win their final fixture of the regular season to secure a home play-off game.

Team News & Starting Lineups


Southland Stags

Michael Manson, Sean Withy, and Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa scored a try each against Canterbury last weekend. 

Mika Muliaina slotted two conversions in the match, while Jimmy Taylor kicked over one conversion. 

Starting XV: Jack Sexton, Jayden Henderson, Fehulk Latu, William Kirkwood, Ale Aho, Sean Withy (C), Gregor Rutledge, Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa, Nic Shearer, Mika Muliaima, Denzel Samoa, Fletcher Morgan, Wil Gualter, Michael Manson, Glen Vaihu

Replacements: Shaun Kempton, Jack Barrett, Darius Fidow, Junior Ahokovi, Konrad Toleafoa, Jackson Hughan, Josh Jennings, Josh Augustine

Northland

Sam Nock, James Ramm, and Corey Evans each crossed the try line against Counties Manukau last weekend. 

Rivez Reihana landed two conversions in the match. 

Starting XV: Esile Fono, James Mullan, Marcel Renata, Josh Goodhue, Allan Craig, Grady Forbes, Lachie Hooper, Simon Parker, Sam Nock, Rivez Reihana (C), Heremaia Murray, Reesjan Pasitoa, Corey Evans, Nathan Salmon, James Ramm

Replacements: Jordan Hutchings, Olly Ryan, Daniel Botha, Darcy Holwell, Heath MacEwan, Josh Benton, Reuben Stewart, Jordan Trainor

Verdict

Northland have had a solid NPC season so far and are tipped to cover the -13.5 handicap in the Battle of the Mainland match against Southland.

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ralph-staniforth
Ralph Staniforth

Sports Editor, South African Sports Writer • 10+ Years of Experience, South African Sports Specialist

Ralph is a passionate sports journalist and coach based in Cape Town. Find his coverage across the biggest rugby union and cricket events as well as South African soccer and tennis.


Ralph is from South Africa and studied Sports Science post school at ETA (Education Teachers Academy) in Cape Town.
He has always had a great passion for sport and this led him into the world of sports journalism, while coaching on the side. 

Since 2012 Ralph has worked as a journalist and covered many topics from business to sport.

Over the last decade and more, he has interviewed numerous top rugby and cricket players and coaches in South Africa.

You can follow Ralph on LinkedIn and Muckrack and find him featured on Mzansiwins, Bets.co.za and Cape Media Corporation.

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