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Tasman vs Wellington Betting Tips - Tasman expected to dominate NPC clash at home

ralph-staniforth
Editor
Last updated: Thu 03 Sep 2026 00:53
Tasman are primed to take advantage of Wellington’s poor form, having lost seven consecutive NPC matches and sitting last in the standings. Tasman, who have won five of their last six home games against the Lions, are heavily favored, especially after close recent matches and their comfortable home record. The article strongly recommends backing Tasman to cover the -19.5 handicap, given their dominance and Wellington’s ongoing struggles.
Ralph Staniforth 2 hours ago
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  • Tasman have won 5 of last 6 home games vs Wellington.
  • Wellington have lost 7 consecutive NPC matches.
  • Tasman tipped to cover the -19.5 handicap.
Tasman
Tasman often beat Wellington at home in the NPC (Getty Images)

Wellington have yet to win this season, giving Tasman the perfect opportunity to bounce back from their away loss last weekend.

Key Stats - Wellington on Horrific Run


  • Tasman have won 3 of their last 5 fixtures.
  • Tasman have won 5 of their last 6 home matches against Wellington. 
  • Wellington have lost 7 consecutive games.

Tasman Dominant


In their last nine NPC encounters, Tasman lead 9-2 against Wellington. At home, Tasman have beaten Wellington in five of their last six.

Tasman Comfortable at Home


Tasman scored a converted try and a penalty in the first half against Northland last weekend, going into the break with the score level at 10-10.

The away side could not add any more points to their tally in the second stanza, losing 20-10 away to Northland. 

Earlier in their season, the Makos edged North Harbour 31-29 at home and lost 50-19 away to Hawke's Bay before beating Counties Manukau 50-35 away and Southland 46-17 at home. 

Tasman are seventh in the National Provincial Championship standings with 15 points from five games. 

Tasman will fancy their chances of returning to winning ways when they host Wellington this weekend, as their opponents have lost all five league fixtures this season. 

Wellington Seven Losses on the Bounce 


Wellington had a solid first half against Counties Manukau last weekend, scoring three converted tries, but went into the break trailing 21-26. 

The Wellington Lions added two converted tries to their score in the second half, but came away empty-handed, losing 46-35 to Counties Manukau at home.

Before that, Wellington lost 52-33 to Hawke's Bay at home, 34-31 away to Auckland, 47-7 to North Harbour at home, and 61-22 away to Otago.

The Lions are last in the NPC table with four points after five rounds. 

Wellington have had a poor campaign so far, and will have to improve their form to beat Tasman, as they have suffered five defeats in their last six visits to their opponents' stadium.

Starting Lineups & Team News


Tasman

Eli Oudenryn scored the only try for his club against Northland last weekend. 

Con: William Havili landed a conversion and a penalty in the match.  

Starting XV: Ryan Coxon, Eli Oudenryn, Vea Taumoefolau, Jake Frost, Antonio Shalfoon, Lopeti Faifua, Johnny Lee, Tayne Hemopo, Mitch Drumond, William Havili, Nic Sauria, David Havili, Cooper Roberts, Kyren Taumoefolau, Maloni Kunawave

Replacements: Richie Asiata, Tom Heywood, Jake Wetere, Hunter Leppien, Rory Scott, Wil Thornalley, Cooper Grant, Macca Springer

Wellingto

Alex Hewitt, Reo Matsushita, Hugo Plummer, Divad Palu, and Riley Williams each scored a try against Counties Manukau last weekend. 

Cameron Burgess slotted all five conversions in the match.

Starting XV: Geordie Bean, Penieli Poasa, Alex Hewitt, Caleb Delany (C), Hugo Plummer, Dominic Ropeti, Du’Plessis Kirifi, Rupeni Raviyawa, Riley Williams, Callum Harkin, William Davis, Losi Filipo, Matt Proctor, Divad Palu, Cameron Burgess

Replacements: Kaleb Saxon, Jake Turnbull, Bradley Crichton, Murphy Taramai, Matolu Petaia, Logan Henry, Jackson Ropata, Reo Matsushita

Verdict

Tasman have a superior record against Wellington at home and are tipped to cover the -19.5 handicap.

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ralph-staniforth
Ralph Staniforth

Sports Editor, South African Sports Writer • 10+ Years of Experience, South African Sports Specialist

Ralph is a passionate sports journalist and coach based in Cape Town. Find his coverage across the biggest rugby union and cricket events as well as South African soccer and tennis.


Ralph is from South Africa and studied Sports Science post school at ETA (Education Teachers Academy) in Cape Town.
He has always had a great passion for sport and this led him into the world of sports journalism, while coaching on the side. 

Since 2012 Ralph has worked as a journalist and covered many topics from business to sport.

Over the last decade and more, he has interviewed numerous top rugby and cricket players and coaches in South Africa.

You can follow Ralph on LinkedIn and Muckrack and find him featured on Mzansiwins, Bets.co.za and Cape Media Corporation.

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