Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk Betting Tips & Live Stream – Sabalenka to Claim the Brisbane Title
Aryna Sabalenka has consistently proven her prowess in Brisbane, making yet another final appearance without dropping a set against formidable opponents. Her record holds strong, especially against Marta Kostyuk, whom she has defeated four times without a loss. Sabalenka's powerful ball striking and composure are expected to carry her through to a straight-sets victory, adding another trophy to her collection. Meanwhile, Kostyuk’s impressive semifinal run hints at her potential, yet Sabalenka remains the favorite to win.
- Sabalenka dominates in Brisbane without losing a set
- Holds a 4-0 record against Kostyuk, showcasing her consistent superiority
- Kostyuk's breakthrough adds intrigue, but Sabalenka remains the favorite
Sabalenka has been operating on a different level all week and arrives in this final with clear control over the field. She has moved through the draw without drama, and on current form it is hard to see Kostyuk disrupting her rhythm.
Everything points toward a composed, straight-sets Sabalenka win and another trophy added to her collection.
Stats - Finals Pedigree Favors Sabalenka
- Sabalenka is 8–8 in finals since 2024, despite holding a top-two ranking throughout.
- This is her seventh final in Australia, after winning four of her previous six there.
- She has defended a title three times in her career, including back-to-back Australian Opens.
- Kostyuk has lost two of her three WTA finals, runner-up in San Diego and Stuttgart.
- She is 0–4 against reigning world number ones, all in straight sets.
HTH - Sabalenka Leads 4–0
| Year | Event | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Rome WTA | Clay | R16 | Sabalenka | 6–1, 7–6(8) |
| 2025 | Madrid WTA | Clay | QF | Sabalenka | 7–6(4), 7–6(7) |
| 2023 | French Open | Clay | R1 | Sabalenka | 6–3, 6–2 |
| 2022 | Dubai | Hard | R1 | Sabalenka | 6–4, 6–1 |
Sabalenka at Home in Brisbane
Brisbane continues to bring out Sabalenka’s best, which is exactly why we highlighted her as our outright pick in the tournament preview. She is into the final again and has barely been tested, moving through the draw without dropping a set.
The wins have come against real opposition too, with Madison Keys and Karolina Muchova both unable to slow her down. Her ball striking has been heavy, controlled, and consistent all week, fully in line with what we expected coming into the event.
She also knows how to finish the job here. After losing the final in 2024 and lifting the trophy last season, Brisbane has become one of her most reliable stops on tour, and this run only strengthens the case we made at the start of the week.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Belarus |
| Age | 27 (5 May 1998) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 1 |
| Career High | 1 (11 September 2023) |
| Elo Ranking | 1 (Rating: 2207) |
Kostyuk’s Breakthrough Week in Brisbane
Kostyuk came into Brisbane with modest expectations, having never gone past round two here and without a semifinal since April 2024. This run has already blown past anything she had previously done at this event.
She has earned it the hard way. After coming from a set down against Putintseva, she went on to beat Anisimova, Andreeva, and Pegula, all without dropping a set.
The Pegula win said plenty. Kostyuk wrapped that match up in just 55 minutes, completely controlling the exchanges and never letting the American into the contest.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Ukraine |
| Age | 23 (28 June 2002) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 26 |
| Career High | 16 (17 June 2024) |
| Tour Titles | 1 |
| Elo Ranking | 20 (Rating: 1908) |
Verdict
Sabalenka has looked a class above in Brisbane, controlling matches from the first ball and barely giving opponents a foothold. Kostyuk’s run has been impressive, but this is a major jump in level. The call is Sabalenka to take charge early and finish it in straight sets, 2–0.
Aryna Sabalenka
Correct Score
@7/8 - 3 Units
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Sabalenka -3.5
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@4/6 - 3 Units
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