2026 Eurovision Song Contest Odds & Betting Tips - Finland favourites to win in Austria
Finland is the leading favorite to win the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 in Vienna, Austria, thanks to 'Liekinheitin' by Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen. With odds at 2.25, it stands above Greece and Denmark, both considered credible threats. Entries from Israel and Australia, with strong public vote and jury appeal, pose outside value. France and Romania are regarded as potential dark horses for top-10 finishes. Finland's standout identity and memorable chorus underpin its dominance as the bookmaker favorite.
- Finland is the favourite for Eurovision 2026
- Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen’s “Liekinheitin” heads the market after impressing in Vienna rehearsals
- Greece and Denmark are rated the main dangers, while Israel, Australia and France remain firmly in contention.
Latest Eurovision odds have Finland as the clear favourite to win the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest in Austria on Saturday May 16.
Eurovision 2026 is the 70th edition of the contest and takes place in Vienna, Austria, on May 16.
Finland are trading at around 2.25 to win Eurovision 2026 ahead of Saturday's final, ahead of Greece, Denmark, Israel, Australia, France, Romania and Italy in the outright market.
Latest Eurovision 2026 Betting Odds
| Country | Odds |
|---|---|
| Finland | 2.25 |
| Greece | 7.50 |
| Denmark | 8.00 |
| Israel | 15.00 |
| Australia | 19.00 |
| France | 21.00 |
| Romania | 29.00 |
| Italy | 34.00 |
| Rest | 41.00+ |
Note: Odds correct as of 11:00 BST on 14/5/26 and based on the latest market prices from Stake.com (use the code NEWBONUS)
Leading Contenders & Key Entries for Eurovision 2026
Finland - Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen: “Liekinheitin”
Finland leads the betting with “Liekinheitin,” performed by Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen, a red-hot favourite after winning UMK 2026 to earn the ticket to Vienna.
The song mixes dramatic Scandinavian pop with violin-led instrumentation and a powerful chorus, giving it a standout identity on stage and strong appeal in both jury and televoters.
Greece - Akylas: “Ferto”
Greece is second favourite with Akylas and the track “Ferto,” which won the Sing for Greece 2026 national final.
“Ferto” blends modern Greek pop with rhythmic hooks and staging built around choreography, and betting momentum has pushed Greece closer to Finland in recent days.
Denmark - Søren Torpegaard Lund: “Før vi går hjem”
Denmark will be represented by Søren Torpegaard Lund’s “Før vi går hjem" and the song is gathering support.
This entry is a melodic, atmospheric pop ballad that leans on Lund’s vocal strength and intimate staging make this entry likely to score highly for jury voting.
Israel - Noam Bettan: "Michelle"
Israel has climbed into the upper end of the betting picture after a strong live performance in rehearsals of Noam Bettan's "Michelle".
Traders have reacted to a clear televote-friendly song with Israel significantly shortening in both the win and public-vote markets to become a live danger to the three main favourites.
Australia - Delta Goodrem: "Eclipse"
Australia’s entry, “Eclipse,” brings a polished, contemporary pop production that has landed well with fan polls - particularly with Delta Goodrem performing for her country.
It is a classic jury-friendly package with enough visual impact to keep it in the frame for a top-five finish if the final performance is clean.
France - Monroe: “Regarde!”
France is represented by “Regarde!,” a French-language entry performed by Monroe that combines chanson influences with modern production.
It has less hype than some rivals but has consistently rated as solid value for a high placing due to strong vocal delivery and staging cohesion. It could be a real value outsider.
Romania - Alexandra Căpitănescu: "Choke Me"
Romania’s entry has emerged as a dark horse, sitting just outside the main group of favourites after outperforming expectations in early rehearsals.
The entry is titled "Choke Me" from Alexandra Căpitănescu and there are strong expectations from the combination of uptempo staging and regional voting that could threaten the podium at bigger prices.
Italy - Sal Da Vinci: "Per sempre sì"
Italy rounds out the current top eight in the outright market with a polished, Sanremo-style pop entry that brings credibility and musicality in the shape of Sal Da Vinci's "Per sempre sì".
Italy’s track record at turning solid live performances into strong jury scores means it cannot be dismissed entirely for each-way or top-4 bets.
Verdict
Finland’s “Liekinheitin” currently sets the standard, combining a clear visual identity with a memorable chorus and strong betting support, justifying its status at the head of the market.
Greece’s “Ferto” and Denmark’s “Før vi går hjem” look like the most credible threats, each offering well-balanced packages with significant jury and televote upside.
There is value in Israel and Australia beyond the front three, particularly in public-vote and top-4 markets, while France and Romania appeal at bigger prices for each-way or top-10 plays.
Greece’s “Ferto” and Denmark’s “Før vi går hjem” look like the most credible threats, each offering well-balanced packages with significant jury and televote upside.
There is value in Israel and Australia beyond the front three, particularly in public-vote and top-4 markets, while France and Romania appeal at bigger prices for each-way or top-10 plays.
Finland
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