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Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets Betting Tips – Rockets To Cover In Home Opener In NBA

leigh-copson
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Last updated: Wed 21 Oct 2026 09:30
The Houston Rockets are tipped to beat the Dallas Mavericks and cover in their season opener, aiming for a fifth straight home win over their interstate rivals. Houston boasts a stable roster returning from last year's playoff run, now bolstered by the recovery of Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet. In contrast, Dallas faces the challenge of a retooled lineup and offseason changes, and having gone 1-3 in pre-season play. The article concludes that the settled Rockets lineup gives them the edge.
Leigh Copson 2 hours ago
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  • Houston tipped to win and cover against Dallas on opening night
  • Rockets return a strong, consistent core while Dallas underwent major changes
  • Houston holds a four-game home win streak over Dallas
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Houston are tipped to cover as they beat their state rivals on opening night.

The Rockets return the core of the roster that made the playoffs last season, and they are boosted further by the returns of Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet from injury.

The can dominate on the glass against a Mavericks team that lacks frontcourt depth, denying Dallas second-chance opportunities while creating plenty for themselves.

Key Numbers – Will Rockets Win 5th Straight Meeting In Houston?

  • Houston Rockets have won each of the last 4 meetings at home
  • Dallas Mavericks failed to cover in 24 of their 40 road games last season
  • The Under has cashed in 6 of the previous 8 meetings

Rockets Lead All-Time Head-To-Head; Won Last Meeting

  • Houston Rockets lead the all-time series 115-106
  • Houston Rockets won 111-107 when the two teams last met in January 2026

Dallas Mavericks Went 1-3 In Pre-Season

Dallas underwent significant changes in the offseason, replacing head coach Jason Kidd with Dusty May, while re-tooling the roster.

The Mavericks traded for Zaccharie Risacher, Santi Aldama and Marcus Sasser, while Klay Thompson, Khris Middleton and Ryan Nembhard were among several players to depart.

They enter this season-opening matchup having lost three of their four pre-season matchups.

Dallas opened with a 135-117 home defeat to Houston, but avenged that a couple of days later with a 132-115 win over the Rockets on the road.

The Mavericks failed to follow that up though, as they dropped back-to-back home games to close out pre-season, losing 101-97 to New Orleans and 135-111 to Atlanta.

Houston Rockets Went 2-1 In Pre-Season

Houston opted against making headline-grabbing changes to the roster in the offseason.

Free agents Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic were added to the roster, while Dorian Finney-Smith was traded to Charlotte and Josh Okogue left for Utah.

They prepared for the 2026/27 season with limited pre-season matchups, playing just three games.

Houston opened with a 135-117 victory in Dallas, only to lose 132-115 when they hosted the Mavericks a couple of days later.

The Mavericks then wrapped up pre-season with a victory, downing Oklahoma 116-89 at home.

Verdict

Houston dropped two of their three meetings with a bad Dallas team last season, but they did take their only home game and it has been a couple of years since they lost to the Mavs at the Toyota Center.

They also return with a settled group, unlike the visitors, so we are leaning towards the Rockets covering in this one.

Best Bet1: Houston -8.5 Spread @9/10 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 230.5 Total Points @9/10 at dabble - 3 Units
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leigh-copson
Leigh Copson

Sports Editor • 25+ Years Experience, US & Combat Sports Specialist

US sports writer covering the NFL, NBA, NHL, boxing and MMA, with previews, predictions and betting tips across the major American leagues.

During his career at the Press Association and online sports sites including FreeTips and ExpertPicks.com, he has covered some of the biggest sporting events on the planet, including the Super Bowl, the Champions League Final and the World Cup Final.

He has also covered almost every major boxing match and UFC fight card during this time. His specialist sports are American Football, Basketball, Ice Hockey, Boxing, Mixed Martial Arts and Football.

Follow more of Leigh's work on Muckrack and connect with him on LinkedIn.

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