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Derby vs Leeds Betting Tips - Home Win or Draw Predicted in the FA Cup

alex-waite
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Last updated: Fri 09 Jan 2026 16:59
Derby County have demonstrated a robust form recently, proving hard to beat, while Leeds United's struggles away from home could impact their FA Cup match. Derby remain unbeaten in five of their last seven contests and have a strong home record against Leeds. The Whites, enduring an eight-game winless streak away, face challenges despite their historical advantage over Derby with 60 wins. Key players' injuries also might influence the final outcome, with expectations of an intense and potentially close encounter.
Alex Waite 09 Jan 2026
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  • Derby are in decent form and rarely lose
  • Leeds have a poor away record this season
  • The Rams can win or draw in the FA Cup
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Derby
Derby are unbeaten in 5 of their last 7 matches (Getty)

Derby vs Leeds Preview

Derby have been hard to beat recently and Leeds’ away record is unconvincing. The Rams can hold the Whites in this FA Cup match. 

Leeds Winless in 8

  • Derby are unbeaten in 5 of their last 7 matches. 
  • Derby are unbeaten in 11 of their last 16 home games against Leeds.
  • Leeds are winless in 8 consecutive away matches. 

H2H

Leeds have a 60-38 advantage against Derby, alongside 29 draws. 

Derby Are Solid

John Eustace’s Derby are in decent form and have dropped points in just two of their last seven games.

The Midlands side were on a four-match unbeaten run across December before a 2-1 loss at Leicester. Derby hit back with a 1-0 home victory over promotion-chasing Middlesbrough.

The Rams couldn’t build winning momentum and lost 2-1 against Wrexham. Derby conceded early and Ben Brereton Diaz equalised on 34 minutes before Eustace’s side shipped a second-half winner.

Leeds Poor Away

Leeds have struggled for form recently and are winless in 10 of their last 12 fixtures. The Whites have lost four and drawn three away Premier League games in this period.

Daniel Farke’s side have failed to win in their last four games. They drew three games in a row against Sunderland 1-1, Liverpool 0-0 and Man United 1-1.

That run of draws ended with a 4-3 loss at Newcastle on Wednesday. Leeds allowed 2.43 XG, and goals from Brenden Aaronson and Dominic Calvert-Lewin couldn’t prevent defeat. 

Predicted Starting Lineups & Team News

Derby (3-4-2-1): Jacob Widell Zetterstrom; Sondre Langas, Dion Sanderson, Matt Clarke; Joe Ward, Liam Thompson, Bobby Clark, Callum Elder; Ben Brereton Diaz, Patrick Agyemang; Rhian Brewster

Defensive pair Owen Beck and Max Johnston are ruled out with hamstring injuries. Midfielder David Ozoh and striker Carlton Morris are also unavailable due to injury. 

Leeds (3-5-2): Karl Darlow; Joe Rodon, Jaka Bijol, Pascal Struijk; James Justin, Ilia Gruev, Ethan Ampadu, Anton Stach, Gabriel Gudmundsson; Brenden Aaronson, Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Attacker Dan James is unavailable due to a thigh issue. Defender Jayden Bogle is an injury doubt after missing the last two games with a calf injury.

Sam Byram could miss out with a back problem. Daniel Farke updated on the defender’s condition after a recent training session and said, “The only one who was struggling today - a little bit - was Sam Byram with some back problems.”

Verdict

Derby can utilise their home advantage against a Leeds side that struggles on the road. A home double chance bet has value in the FA Cup third round.

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alex-waite
Alex Waite

Football Writer • 10+ Years Of Experience, Football Betting Analyst

Alex is a full-time sports writer, covering football, cricket, golf, rugby and tennis as well as providing informative betting guides.

Alex was born in London and studied at Swansea University in Wales. He used to work as a teacher in London but changed a few years ago to work as a full-time sports writer. Mostly enjoys watching and writing about football, cricket, golf, rugby and tennis.

Also featured at OneFootball, Football Whispers and World Soccer Talk and can be found at LinkedIn, Twitter and Game Day Stories SubStack.

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