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Germany vs Croatia Live Stream & Predictions – Croatia Underestimated at the European Championship Semifinal

vedran-ostojic
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Last updated: Thu 29 Jan 2026 18:56
Croatia's impressive rise since their loss to Sweden positions them strongly ahead of the semifinals. After overcoming every opponent in the Main Round, Croatia faces Germany with confidence. Given Germany's unconvincing path to the semifinal, the prediction leans towards Croatia covering a +2.5 handicap, presenting a tactical advantage. Observers highlight Croatia's evolving form as key to their potential success in this competitive match-up.
Vedran Ostojic 29 Jan 2026
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  • Croatia have improved drastically since the group phase
  • We are backing them to put up a fight against Germany
  • Watch Germany vs Croatia at the European Championship semifinal
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Croatia feel underestimated heading into this semifinal. They are the only team to win all four Main Round games in their group, while Germany had a few shaky moments and produced just one truly dominant performance, against France. I am backing the Cowboys to make this semifinal competitive and to cover a +2.5 handicap. 

Germany Finding Rhythm Late 


Germany encountered plenty of problems in the group phase, suffering a surprise 30-27 loss to Serbia before recovering in the decisive match by beating Spain 34-32 to carry points into the Main Round. 

They opened the second phase with two solid performances, edging Portugal 32-30 and Norway 30-28, before recording their only Main Round defeat against reigning world champions Denmark 31-26. 

In the semifinal-deciding clash, the Germans were at their best, controlling proceedings from start to finish against France and claiming a well-deserved 38-34 victory to secure second place. Juri Knorr was outstanding, leading the way with 11 goals. 

Croatia Growing Stronger With Each Match 


Croatia have exceeded expectations at this European Championship, standing out as the only team not to lose a single match in the Main Round. 

They advanced to the second phase with zero points after a 33-25 loss to Sweden in the group stages, but quickly found their rhythm by defeating Iceland 30-29, Switzerland 28-24 and Slovenia 29-25 in succession. 

The final round clash against Hungary was far from straightforward. Croatia struggled to contain the opposition’s offense early on and went into halftime two goals down, but goalkeeper Kuzmanovic produced a series of crucial saves after the break, turning the momentum and pushing the Cowboys to a 27-25 victory. 

Verdict

Croatia have grown significantly since their only defeat of the tournament against Sweden and have conquered every opponent they faced in the Main Round. Germany’s path to the semifinal was less convincing overall, and I don’t see them as clear favorites here. Backing Croatia to cover a +2.5 handicap looks like strong value. 

Best Bet1: Croatia +2.5 Asian Handicap @9/10 at Hollywood bets - 2 Units
Croatia +2.5
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