2025 Chile Presidential Election Odds - Jose Antonio Kast favourite to be named president
On November 16, 2025, Chile will head to the voting polls to determine its future president. José Antonio Kast, the far-right Republican Party leader, is currently leading the betting odds and polling figures, positioning him as the favorite to succeed Gabriel Boric. Competing candidates include leftist Jeannette Jara, conservative Evelyn Matthei, and libertarian Johannes Kaiser. If no candidate secures a majority, a runoff election is scheduled for December 15. Each candidate presents unique platforms and challenges, shaping a critical political and social landscape in Chile.
- Chile's presidential election set for November 16, 2025, with a potential runoff on December 15
- José Antonio Kast, representing the far-right Republican Party, leads polls and betting odds
- Other candidates: Jeannette Jara (Unity for Chile), Evelyn Matthei (conservative) and Johannes Kaiser (libertarian)
Chile heads to the voting polls on November 16, 2025, with Jose Antonio Kast leading the betting odds to succeed Gabriel Boric as president.
Kast lost out in the 2021 presidential election to Boric, who assumed office on 11 March 2022 but is constitutionally barred from seeking consecutive re-election.
Kast 56%, Jeannette Jara 20.3%, Evelyn Matthei 13% and Johannes Kaiser 4.1% are the leading candidates and top the polls to gain power in Chile.
Betting odds make Kast, leader of the far-right Republican Party, an odds on favourite at 1.79 ahead of 5.00 chance Jara, who is the candidate of the leftist Unity for Chile coalition and a key figure in Boric’s administration.
Matthei (7.70 odds), the mayor of Providencia and a veteran conservative politician, is an alternative right-wing option to Kast while Kasier (25.00) is an outsider despite cultivating a younger following on social media.
Chile votes on November 16, 2025, and if no one reaches 50% of the vote a December 15 runoff will follow.
Latest Chile Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Probability | Betting Odds |
|---|---|---|
| José Antonio Kast | 56% | 1.79 |
| Jeannette Jara | 20.3% | 4.93 |
| Evelyn Matthei | 13% | 7.69 |
| Johannes Kaiser | 4.1% | 24.39 |
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Chilean Presidential Election Leading Candidates
José Antonio Kast
José Antonio Kast, leader of the far-right Republican Party, is the current frontrunner for Chile's 2025 presidential election.
A former congressman and two-time presidential candidate, Kast has built his campaign on a hardline stance against crime, illegal immigration, and left-wing politics.
Drawing inspiration from leaders like El Salvador's Nayib Bukele, he promises a militarized approach to law enforcement, mass deportations, and enhanced border control. His platform appeals to a growing segment of voters frustrated by rising violence, especially in urban areas.
Kast's conservative social values and economic liberalism resonate with Chile’s right-leaning base, particularly in rural and middle-class communities.
He narrowly lost to Gabriel Boric in 2021 but has since capitalized on public discontent with the current administration.
His strong polling and disciplined party structure put him in a commanding position, though his divisive rhetoric could limit his ceiling in a potential second-round runoff.
Jeannette Jara
Jeannette Jara is the candidate of the leftist Unity for Chile coalition and a key figure in President Gabriel Boric’s administration, where she served as Minister of Labor.
Emerging victorious in the official left-wing primary in June 2025, Jara brings union credentials, government experience, and coalition unity to the race.
Her platform centers on addressing the root causes of crime through social investment, housing, and education, countering the punitive narratives dominating the election.
Jara appeals to progressives, urban workers, and supporters of Boric’s social agenda, aiming to preserve and expand recent reforms.
Her challenge lies in overcoming voter fatigue with the current government and energizing turnout among a traditionally fragmented left. However, her selection has consolidated the center-left, which avoids vote-splitting seen on the right.
Jara’s performance will depend on how effectively she can frame Kast as a threat to democratic values and social rights, especially in a likely runoff.
Evelyn Matthei
Evelyn Matthei, the mayor of Providencia and a veteran conservative politician, enters the race as a more moderate right-wing alternative to José Antonio Kast.
A former labor minister and 2013 presidential candidate, Matthei commands respect across Chile’s traditional political spectrum.
She combines tough-on-crime messaging with pragmatic governance and a commitment to institutional stability. Her experience and centrist tone appeal to upper-middle-class voters and those wary of extremism.
However, Matthei faces a difficult strategic landscape: she must differentiate herself from Kast without alienating conservative voters, all while contending with the emergence of far-right voices like Johannes Kaiser.
Despite strong name recognition and administrative competence, her campaign has struggled to build distinct momentum in the polls.
Unless support for Kast collapses or she can secure a unity pact from the center-right bloc, Matthei risks being a spoiler whose presence divides the anti-left vote and inadvertently helps Jara reach a runoff.
Johannes Kaiser
Johannes Kaiser is a rising libertarian figure in Chilean politics, gaining notoriety through social media and controversial positions on individual liberties, immigration, and gender issues.
A former Republican Party member and current independent, Kaiser has cultivated a young, online-driven base that echoes the populist style of Argentina’s Javier Milei.
He positions himself as an anti-establishment outsider, critical of both the left and the traditional right, and opposes what he describes as "woke culture" and state overreach.
His appeal is particularly strong among younger male voters who feel alienated by conventional political discourse. However, Kaiser’s confrontational style and fringe views limit his mainstream viability.
While unlikely to win, his presence significantly affects the race by siphoning votes from Kast and Matthei, potentially reshaping the right’s balance of power.
His performance will indicate the depth of appetite in Chile for a disruptive, libertarian agenda and could influence policy debates beyond this election.
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