Italy vs Scotland Betting Tips - Italy backed to upset the odds in Six Nations in Rome
The upcoming Six Nations clash between Italy and Scotland promises to be a thrilling contest. While Scotland remains the favorite, Italy has proven their strength by beating Scotland at home in 2024 and securing recent victories against tough opponents like Australia. Italy aims to compete closely, with hopes of an upset, having improved significantly over the past two years. For Scotland, achieving a top-three finish in the Six Nations is crucial, making this fixture vital. Recent results show Scotland's strength, though Italy's home advantage could prove challenging.
- Italy seeks to leverage home advantage against Scotland.
- Scotland dominates head-to-head but faces a resurgent Italy.
- Italy aims for narrow victory to challenge Six Nations standings.
Italy have achieved some notable results in recent years, particularly at home, where they also beat Scotland in 2024. I am backing the Italians to get within 9.5 points and perhaps win.
- Key Stats - Italy Vastly Improved
- Scotland Dominant but some Tight Encounters
- Italians Banking on Home Form
- Scotland Inconsistency a Concern
- Italy vs Scotland Teams
- Quotes
Key Stats - Italy Vastly Improved
- Italy beat Scotland the last time they played in Rome (2024).
- Italy have won 2 of their last 3 matches.
- Scotland have won 15 of their last 16 matches against Italy.
Scotland Dominant but some Tight Encounters
Scotland have dominated this fixture, winning 15 of their last 16 matches against Italy. Italy’s one win in that run came in a 31-29 win at home in 2024. Last season, Italy were very competitive again but lost out 31-19 at Murrayfield.
Italians Banking on Home Form
Italy are a vastly improved side over the last two years and have taken some of the biggest sides close in that period, including beating Scotland in 2024.
This is a crucial fixture for Italy as defeat is likely going to see them for the fight with Wales for bottom spot. Last year, Italy went relatively well in the Six Nations, despite only beating Wales. They had a narrow loss to Ireland and were pretty good against England away at times.
In November, Italy upset the odds at home, beating Australia 26-19 before losing 32-14 to South Africa. However, the scoreline against the Springboks doesn’t quite tell the tale of the game as Italy were still very close going into the last quarter.
They ended 2025 with a 34-19 victory over Chile at home. Most first-choice players were rested for that fixture.
Scotland Inconsistency a Concern
Scotland will want to push for a top three finish in the Six Nations, and this result will have a major bearing ont aht. The Scots finished fourth last year, but their performances perhaps warranted more.
During July, Scotland beat the Maori All Blacks and Samoa but lost to Fiji. This was a tour without most of their first-choice players.
In November, Scotland suffered defeat to New Zealand and Argentina after thrashing the USA at the start of the month. Scotland will feel like they could and perhaps should have beaten both New Zealand and Argentina, but late concentration loss cost them. In their final fixture, Scotland hammered Tonga 56-0.
Italy vs Scotland Teams
Italy: 15 Leonardo Marin, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Michele Lamaro (captain), 5 Andrea Zambonin, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti.
Replacements: 16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Muhamed Hasa, 19 Federico Ruzza, 20 Riccardo Favretto, 21 Alessandro Garbisi, 22 Giacomo Da Re, 23 Lorenzo Pani.
Scotland: 15 Tom Jordan, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu (captain), 11 Jamie Dobie, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Matt Fagerson, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Scott Cummings, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Ewan Ashman, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 George Turner, 17 Nathan McBeth, 18 Elliot Millar Mills, 19 Max Williamson, 20 Gregor Brown, 21 George Horne, 22 Adam Hastings, 23 Darcy Graham.
Quotes
Gregor Townsend, Scotland head coach on his contract situation and rumours. “There’s no truth I’ve signed the contract beyond the World Cup, and my focus is on the Scotland team right now and hopefully up to the World Cup. It’s a story that is being put out there to try to disrupt ahead of this game or next week’s game against England.”
Italy captain, Michele Lamaro on his teams’ chances. “We’ve seen when we’re at our best, we can actually compete against anyone,” said Lamaro.
“But at the same time, to be able to be at our best every single time, you have to go a step further.
“So that’s one of our main objectives, especially for the Six Nations campaign.”
Verdict
Italy are backed to get within 9.5 points of Scotland with an upset win quite possible.
Italy +9.5
Handicap
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