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South Africa vs New Zealand 3rd Test Betting Tips - South Africa set to take 2-1 lead in Rugby's Greatest Rivalry

ralph-staniforth
Ralph Staniforth
Editor
Last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026 23:34
South Africa are favorites for the third test against New Zealand after bouncing back impressively in the second match. The Springboks have a strong recent record against the All Blacks and look to build on their momentum with a largely unchanged squad. New Zealand showed improvement but struggled in set-pieces. Key players and tactical changes are noted, with South Africa backed to cover the -7.5 handicap and take a 2-1 series lead. The recommendation favors the Springboks’ superior form and physical dominance.
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  • South Africa have won 14 of last 15 matches; 6 of last 8 vs NZ.
  • Springboks are tipped to cover the -7.5 handicap at FNB Stadium.
  • A largely unchanged South African side aims for a 2-1 series lead.
springboks vs new zealand
South Africa to take series lead to Baltimore (Getty Images)

South Africa bounced back in superbly last weekend and will look to continue that into the third test. We are leaning on the hosts to take the series lead.

Key Stats - South Africa in Dominant Form


  • South Africa have won 14 of their last 15 matches.
  • South Africa have won 6 of their last 8 matches against New Zealand.
  • New Zealand have won 7 of their last 8 matches.

Springboks have the Upper Hand


New Zealand have the overall lead but South Africa have won six of their last eight against the All Blacks. At the FNB Stadium, New Zealand have won on both occasions, the last of which was 14 years ago.

Superlative Springboks


South Africa have been in superb form for the last 12 months, despite their series opener defeat to New Zealand. Last week, the Springboks bounced back in spectacular form, at least at the start, and dominated much of the match.

The All Blacks fought back late on once the hosts were down a man, but over 80 minutes, South Africa were hardly in trouble. That is a good sign for the Springboks who will want to take a 2-1 lead to the USA next weekend.

Given that South Africa dominated much of the first test as well but failed to take their chances, which eventually lead to a hefty defeat, means the confidence in the squad will be high.

New Zealand Improvement Significant


The All Blacks certainly look a revitalised side under Dave Rennie. They are trying to play a fast-paced game, which has worked on occasions against a narrow Springbok defence, but they are struggling in key aspects.

Last weekend, while the scrum was messy, New Zealand held firm, mostly. But their lineout cracked at crucial times in the game, which gave South Africa plenty of ball to play with. The men in black will also need to be better under the high ball on Saturday, otherwise a long night awaits.

From a form perspective, New Zealand will be pleased. They won all four franchise games and the first test, they came up short last weekend, but with two to play, the series is wide open.

Springboks vs All Blacks News & Squads


South Africa have largely gone with the same squad that played last weekend. Cheslin Kolbe moves to fullback for the injured Damian Willemse while Kurt-Lee Arendse comes in on the wing.

South Africa: Cheslin Kolbe, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Ethan Hooker, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Cobus Reinach, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Ruan Nortje, Eben Etzebeth, Wilco Louw, Malcolm Marx, Ox Nche.
Replacements: Deon Fourie, Gerhard Steenekamp, Thomas du Toit, Lood de Jager, Andre Esterhuizen, Cameron Hanekom, Morne van den Berg, Manie Libbok.


New Zealand: Damian McKenzie, Will Jordan, Quinn Tupea, Jordie Barrett, Leroy Carter, Ruben Love, Cam Roigard, Ardie Savea (captain), Luke Jacobson, Peter Lakai, Sam Darry, Tupuo Vaa’i, Tyrel Lomax, Asafo Aumua, George Bower.
Replacements: Samisoni Taukei’aho, Xavier Numia, Fletcher Newell, Fabian Holland, Wallace Sititi, Kyle Preston, Anton Lienert-Brown, Josh Moorby.

Verdict

South Africa are backed to cover the -7.5 handicap at the FNB Stadium on Saturday and take a 2-1 lead into the final match of the series.

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ralph-staniforth
Ralph Staniforth

Sports Editor, South African Sports Writer • 10+ Years of Experience, South African Sports Specialist

Ralph is a passionate sports journalist and coach based in Cape Town. Find his coverage across the biggest rugby union and cricket events as well as South African soccer and tennis.


Ralph is from South Africa and studied Sports Science post school at ETA (Education Teachers Academy) in Cape Town.
He has always had a great passion for sport and this led him into the world of sports journalism, while coaching on the side. 

Since 2012 Ralph has worked as a journalist and covered many topics from business to sport.

Over the last decade and more, he has interviewed numerous top rugby and cricket players and coaches in South Africa.

You can follow Ralph on LinkedIn and Muckrack and find him featured on Mzansiwins, Bets.co.za and Cape Media Corporation.

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