Matteo Arnaldi vs Mackenzie McDonald Live Stream & Betting Tips - McDonald Backed in Indian Wells
Matteo Arnaldi and Mackenzie McDonald are set to clash in the ATP Indian Wells First Round. Arnaldi, who has been on a brief hiatus due to an ankle injury, will face McDonald, who has shown impressive form in the qualifiers. Arnaldi struggled early in the year with only two matches played, while McDonald has been effective, winning five of his last six first-round appearances at Indian Wells. This match promises to be an exciting showdown with McDonald slightly favored given his recent momentum and Arnaldi's rustiness.
- Arnaldi has given up 39 break points in his last 3 matches
- The Italian has played only two matches this year
- McDonald cruised through the qualifiers in Indian Wells
Matteo Arnaldi hasn’t played since the Australian Open in order to recover from an ankle injury. Mackenzie McDonald showed enough in the qualifiers that he can win again in Indian Wells.
| Matteo Arnaldi | Mackenzie McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Nationality | Italy | United States |
| Age | 25 (22 February 2001) | 30 (16 April 1995) |
| Height | 6'1" (1.85m) | 5'10" (1.78m) |
| Plays | Right-Handed | Right-Handed |
| World Ranking | 85 | 126 |
| Career High | 30 (August 2024) | 37 (October 2023) |
| ATP Tour Titles | 0 | 0 |
| ATP Indian Wells Best Result | Third Round (2025) | Second Round (2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2025) |
HTH
Matteo Arnaldi has met Mackenzie McDonald once, in Montreal.
| Year | Event | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Canada Masters | Hard | R64 | Arnaldi | 4-6 6-4 6-4 |
Injury Concerns for Arnaldi
Matteo Arnaldi fell out of the Top 50 in August and has shown few signs of a return. He has played just two matches this year.
The Italian started the season in the Brisbane qualifiers, saving two match points to get past Hugo Gaston. He then pulled out of the tournament due to a left ankle injury.
Arnaldi tried his luck at the Australian Open but didn’t last long, beaten 6-4 6-2 6-3 by Andrey Rublev in the first round.
McDonald Making it Count in Indian Wells
Mackenzie McDonald hasn’t reached an ATP Tour quarter-final since July 2024. He started 2026 at the Australian Open, a lucky loser in the first round where he lost 6-2 6-2 6-3 to Alex de Minaur.
The 30-year-old got to the Quimper Challenger quarters where he retired in the first set. He lost 6-4 7-5 against Sebastian Korda in the first round in Delray Beach and failed to qualify in Acapulco.
McDonald had a comfortable draw to get through Indian Wells qualifiers and has made it count. He beat Vitaliy Sachko 6-2 6-1 and Trevor Svajda 6-4 6-2, his serve broken once.
Verdict
Mackenzie McDonald has allowed 21 break points in his previous seven matches, Matteo Arnaldi giving up 39 in three. McDonald has an 83% win rate in the first round in Indian Wells and can get through again.
Mackenzie McDonald Win
Winner
@2/3 - 1 Unit
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Matteo Arnaldi v Mackenzie McDonald
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