New Zealand vs Australia 1st Bledisloe Cup Test Betting Tips - Wallabies can get close at Eden Park in Bledisloe Cup opener
New Zealand and Australia face off in the first Bledisloe Cup Test at Eden Park, with both teams eager to make a statement. The All Blacks are under pressure after three consecutive defeats, while Australia are unbeaten in five games under coach Les Kiss. New Zealand remains dominant at Eden Park with a 53-match unbeaten streak and have historically controlled this match-up. However, Australia’s recent form leads the prediction towards them covering the 11.5-point handicap despite the All Blacks’ home advantage.
- New Zealand remain unbeaten at Eden Park in 53 matches.
- Australia come in with four wins in five and are tipped to cover the 11.5-point handicap.
- Despite past dominance, the All Blacks face pressure after recent losses.
The All Blacks are clear favourites against Australia with the handicap set at 11.5. That is understandable given that the game is at Eden Park, a ground the hosts have not lost at since 1994 (53 Test matches).
- Key Stats - All Blacks 11 in a Row against Australia
- Dominant in Black
- New Zealand Looking to Bounce Back
- Australia Improve Clear, Four Wins in Five
- New Zealand vs Australia Starting Lineups
However, the Wallabies are in confident mood and unbeaten in five. While I am hesitant to go against New Zealand in Auckland, I do feel the Aussies can get within that margin.
Key Stats - All Blacks 11 in a Row against Australia
- New Zealand are unbeaten in 53 matches at Eden Park.
- New Zealand have lost their last 3 matches.
- New Zealand have won their last 11 matches against Australia.
- Australia have won their last 5 matches.
Dominant in Black
The All Blacks lead 11-0 in their last 11 matches against Australia.
New Zealand Looking to Bounce Back
There is no question that the All Blacks were nowhere near their usual standards under Scott Robertson in 2025 and thus the change of coach. While results have not been great since Dave Rennie took over, the style of play has improved and most accept that it will take some time for the All Blacks to return to their best.
The only rugby New Zealand has played in 2026 was in the Greatest Rivalry Tour to South Africa. They won all four games against the provincial sides and also beat the Springboks in the first Test 33-16.
However, the double World Cup champions then stepped it up a gear and the All Blacks lost the subsequent three matches, going down 43-28 in the final test in Baltimore on 12 September.
Australia Improve Clear, Four Wins in Five
This is an exceptionally important year for Australia rugby as they are hosting the Rugby World Cup next year. It has been a dry few years for the Wallabies but they are finally starting to look like a team that will compete in 2027.
There were more than just glimpses in 2025, however, inconsistency plagued the Aussies. This year, they are unbeaten in five matches, not overly convincingly, but they are still getting over the line.
Australia defeated Japan twice, once by three points but then dominated the second test to win with ease. Their two-match tour to Argentina saw them win 27-21 and draw 28-28. The big result came in their last fixture just a couple of weeks ago as they defeated South Africa 42-38 in Perth.
New Zealand vs Australia Starting Lineups
New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leroy Carter, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Peter Lakai, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Josh Lord, 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor (captain), 1 Ethan De Groot.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 George Bower, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Shannon Frizell, 20 Anton Segner, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Rieko Ioane, 13 Josh Moorby.
Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Isaac Henry, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 10 Ben Donaldson, 9 Ryan Lonergan, 8 Harry Wilson (captain), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Jeremy Williams, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Angus Bell.
Replacements: 16 Josh Nasser, 17 Aidan Ross, 18 Massimo De Lutiis, 19 Lachlan Shaw, 20 Nick Champion de Crespigny, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Declan Meredith, 23 Harry Potter.
Verdict
I am backing Australia to get within the 11.5 handicap at Eden Park. They are in good form and confident while the All Blacks need to bounce back from three straight defeats. In the try scorer markets, Will Jordan is certainly one to look out for.
Australia +11.5
Handicap
@10/11 - 3 Units
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Will Jordan
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Ralph is from South Africa and studied Sports Science post school at ETA (Education Teachers Academy) in Cape Town.
He has always had a great passion for sport and this led him into the world of sports journalism, while coaching on the side.
Since 2012 Ralph has worked as a journalist and covered many topics from business to sport.
Over the last decade and more, he has interviewed numerous top rugby and cricket players and coaches in South Africa.
You can follow Ralph on LinkedIn and Muckrack and find him featured on Mzansiwins, Bets.co.za and Cape Media Corporation.
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