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Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Betting Tips & Live Stream - Phoenix rising with NBL win

ryan-tucker
Ryan Tucker
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Last updated: Tue 02 Dec 2025 14:52
The South East Melbourne Phoenix, with their high-scoring offense, are predicted to outperform the Illawarra Hawks, who have recently experienced a series of losses. The Hawks' defensive struggles, particularly on the perimeter, place them at a disadvantage against the Phoenix's potent scoring capabilities. Observers recommend the Phoenix to win and cover a short betting line, banking on South East Melbourne's resilient offensive tactics.
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Ryan Tucker 02 Dec 2025
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  • Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 11 NBL matchup
  • Phoenix have the second-best scoring team record
  • Hawks on 3-game losing streak and struggling defensively
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south east melbourne phoenix
South East Melbourne Phoenix (Getty Images)

Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Preview


South East Melbourne are the league’s second best scoring team and that can prove the difference again the low-scoring Illawarra Hawks outfit. Take the Phoenix to win and cover the short line.
  • Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Preview
  • Illawarra Hawks Beaten In 3 Straight
  • Phoenix High Scorers But Inconsistent

  • South East Melbourne won the first matchup this season 116-76 as 2pt favourites. 
  • Illawarra are allowing 97.2 pts per game to opponents, worst in the NBL
  • Prior to their loss to Adelaide, Owen Foxwell had 18 assists in 3 games. SEM lead the league in average assists per game. Illawarra rank 2nd last in opposition assists.
  • Nathan Sobey has scored 20+ in 3 of his last 5 vs Illawarra, twice hitting 25 pts. He has also hit 25+ in 4 of his last 7 games as the road favourite.

Illawarra Hawks Beaten In 3 Straight


Illawarra hit the international break on a 3 game skid, losing to the Kings in round 9 before a double loss in round 10, first to Adelaide 97-85 then to Melbourne United 105-102 in a Championship rematch.

The Hawks pushed Melbourne to the brink, led by Javale McGee who racked up 28 pts, 12 boards as well as 3 assists, 1 steal and 2 blocks. QJ Peterson added 22 pts off the bench while Will Hickey and Tyler Harvey both scored in double digits. 

It was a return to the high paced scoring we saw from Illawarra last year that helped them secure a title but unfortunately their defence, especially around the perimeter, was too lacklustre to stop the Melbourne scoring.

Phoenix High Scorers But Inconsistent


Round 10 was a mixed bag for the Phoenix as they had a double game week before the international break. 

A first up win over the Brisbane Bullets 103-76 was punctuated by a strong start and equally strong finish, Jordie Hunter going off for 24, 9 and 2. 

But then they backed up a couple days later with a loss at home to the Adelaide 36ers 94-81. A very unusual game for SEM who played just an 8 man rotation and had just 6 scorers on the night, a long way away from the usual league leading bench unit and NBL’s best scoring offence.

Whether or not there were considerations within the team that forced that hand or it was purely tactical remains to be seen. For Phoenix fans they will be hoping for a return to what has brought them so much success this season, a deep bench and players sharing the ball.

Verdict

Take the Phoenix to win and cover the interestingly short line. Against the league’s worst defence, take SEM Team total Over. Owen Foxwell to grab 5+ assists in the game is a lock and a sprinkle on Sobey 25+ is worth a shout.

Best Bet1: Phoenix -2.5 Line @9/10 at Hollywood bets - 2 Units
Best Bet2: SEM Over 94.5 Team Total @17/20 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: O Foxwell 5+ Assists @1/1 at Star Sports - 2 Units
Best Bet4: N Sobey 25+ Points @39/20 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Phoenix -2.5
Line
@9/10 - 2 Units
£30 Free Bet
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SEM Over 94.5
Team Total
@17/20 - 1 Unit
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Bet at bet365
O Foxwell 5+
Assists
@1/1 - 2 Units
Bet £20 Get £10
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18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org

Bet at Star Sports
N Sobey 25+
Points
@39/20 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
Use promo code NEWBONUS

Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.

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