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Melbourne United vs Tasmania JackJumpers NBL Qualifier Tips - Underdogs backed in Play-In clash

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Ryan Tucker
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Last updated: Wed 04 Mar 2026 17:51
Ahead of their Play-In qualifier, Melbourne United are favored by 7.5 points against the Tasmania JackJumpers, whose defensive strategy could prove pivotal. Tasmania has covered the spread against Melbourne in 12 consecutive games, partly due to their slow pace and strong defense, which ranks third in points allowed. Melbourne's form has dipped recently, complicating their playoff prospects. Key player predictions include Melbourne’s team total staying under 90.5, Chris Goulding scoring under 12.5 points, and Tyson Walker making over 1.5 three-pointers.
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Ryan Tucker 04 Mar 2026
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  • Melbourne United vs Tasmania JackJumpers expert predictions for Thursday’s Play-In Qualifier NBL matchup
  • Tasmania's defence can help them cover the line
  • Predictions: Tasmania +7.5 & Melbourne under 90.5 points
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melbourne united jackjumpers
Melbourne United and Tasmania Jackjumpers meet in the NBL Qualifier (Getty Images)

Melbourne United vs Tasmania JackJumpers Preview


Melbourne United are 7.5 point favourites and are likely go through from this Play-In qualifier, but Tasmania make most appeal on the line. I'm backing Melbourne’s team total to stay under 90.5 and contribute to the JackJumpers covering.

  • Tasmania have covered +7.5 v Melbourne in 12 straight games 
  • Melbourne failed to reach 80 points in their last 3 games v Tasmania and averaged just 87.8 pts across their final 4 games of the season.
  • The JackJumpers play at the slowest pace in the NBL. 
  • Chris Goulding has struggled with scoring in the back half of the season, he scored 9, 8 and 4 pts in his 3 games v Tas this season and has failed to reach this number in 4 of his last 8 outings.
  • Tyson Walker has seen more opportunity from the perimeter with Goulding’s shooting problems. He has hit 2+ three pointers in 4 straight games and averages 1.5 per game on the season.

Melbourne United Lose Form Ahead Of Playoffs


Melbourne United won just 2 of their last 5 games to finish out the regular season and were a shell of their former selves from the Round 11 FIBA break. 

Up until that point they were leading the comp, were the second best defensive unit and were a top three shooting team.

All of that came crashing down with their 3pt% falling to 2nd worst, their defence ranking just 5th and while there was never any real danger that they would fall out of the top six, a form dip like theirs heading into a single elimination final is worrying.

Tasmania JackJumpers Struggled At Season End


The JackJumpers struggled through the back end of the season winning just 2 of their final 8 regular season games. 

Injuries hit the team hard all season long and if not for poor opposition they would not have finished in sixth.

Tasmania are a grinding team, they look to drag their opponents into the mud and slow the game right down which is why they rank last in pace on the season. 

At a slower rate, the defence has fewer possessions to defend and that in turn helps them keep scores lower, ranking 3rd in opposition points on the year.

Verdict

Back Tasmania to cover +7.5 and Melbourne’s team total under 90.5. Chris Goulding under 12.5 pts is the top player prop and Tyson Walker to have over 1.5 threes.

Best Bet1: Tasmania +7.5 Line @7/8 at Hollywood bets - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Melbourne Under 90.5 Team Total @7/8 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet3: C Goulding under 12.5 Player Points @7/8 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: T Walker over 1.5 Threes made @17/20 at Hollywood bets - 2 Units
Tasmania +7.5
Line
@7/8 - 3 Units
£30 Free Bet
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Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.

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Melbourne Under 90.5
Team Total
@7/8 - 3 Units
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Bet at bet365
C Goulding under 12.5
Player Points
@7/8 - 1 Unit
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Bet at Star Sports
T Walker over 1.5
Threes made
@17/20 - 2 Units
£30 Free Bet
Use promo code NEWBONUS

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