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New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL Betting Tips - Phoenix hot on the tail of top spot

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
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Last updated: Tue 03 Feb 2026 11:29
The New Zealand Breakers are set to battle the South East Melbourne Phoenix, with the latter having a strong record in recent matchups. The Phoenix recently outperformed Adelaide, aided by standout performances from players like John Brown III. The Breakers, however, face mixed results, with inconsistencies highlighted by Karim Lopez's fluctuating influence on games. Winning this match is crucial for the Breakers' playoff aspirations, while the Phoenix eyes the top seed.
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Jeremy Darke 03 Feb 2026
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  • New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix predictions for Thursday’s Round 20 NBL matchup
  • Phoenix defeated Adelaide and now aim for top spot
  • John Brown leads Phoenix's forceful rebound efforts
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Nathan Sobey Phoenix
Nathan Sobey backed for assists (Getty Images)

New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Preview


The Phoenix brushed aside the league leaders Adelaide by 20 points on Saturday and can get another win in their pursuit of top spot. SEM have dominated the Breakers in recent seasons and can claim a routine win in New Zealand.

  • SEM have won the last 5 matches against New Zealand
  • SEM led by 20 points at halftime in their last match against New Zealand, 14 days ago.
  • John Brown is averaging 13.5 rebounds in his last 2 matches.
  • Nathan Sobey has had an average of 6.33 assists per match against New Zealand this season.

New Zealand Breakers In Mixed Form


It was another mixed bag round for New Zealand, which basically sums up their whole season really. 

A big result against Melbourne on Friday night getting up 97-95 after a hug match from 2026 draftee Karim Lopez, who had 32 points and eight rebounds, was then backed up poorly by a loss to Tasmania on Sunday, despite the JackJumpers basically running a second-string starting 5 due to injury.

The loss to Tassie could prove to be pivotal in the Breakers chances of making the Finals with the Jackies pushing out again to a two win margin in sixth instead of the pair being locked on 12 wins a-piece. 

The game against Tassie was the worst performance from New Zealand in a while scoring under 90 points for the first time in six matches, shooting at 44.6 FG% ten percent worse than what they had shot in the five games prior. 

Lopez didn’t see the ball as much inside with the Breakers trying to attack Tasmania from outside the paint which obviously was a poor option.

South East Melbourne Phoenix Chasing Top Spot


South East Melbourne suffered their second consecutive loss to Perth, losing once again to the Wildcats 101-93 in their Ignite Cup clash last Wednesday. 

Despite shooting well from three, the Phoenix struggled inside, combating the size of Jo Lual-Acuil and the versatile forwards of Perth scoring at just 38.5% from two-point range.

All was forgiven though in their top of the table clash with Adelaide on Saturday. Rebounding back into form and the hunt for the number one seed into the NBL Finals, literally. 

The Phoenix cleaned up all of the crumbs out-rebounding Adelaide 54-37. John Brown lll led the way with 13 boards after registering 14 in the loss to Perth, while Jordan Hunter also hit double figures with 10. 

The difference between Adelaide and S.E Melbourne was the bench. Ian Clark (12 points) and Malique Lewis (11 points) made a difference playing over 20 minutes each while the 36ers bench scored a total of six points.

Verdict

John Brown is backed to take 10 rebounds and Nathan Sobey collect five assists. Also take the Phoenix to lead by 4+ points at halftime and go on to win the match.

Best Bet1: S.E Melbourne -3.5 Half time Handicap @10/11 at Hollywood bets - 3 Units
Best Bet2: John Brown 10+ Rebounds @5/2 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Nathan Sobey 5+ Assists @7/10 at Star Sports - 3 Units
S.E Melbourne -3.5
Half time Handicap
@10/11 - 3 Units
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Nathan Sobey
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