Southampton vs Middlesbrough Betting Tips & Live Stream - Cyle Larin to Score in the Championship Play-Off
Southampton are seen as favorites for their upcoming Championship play-off tie against Middlesbrough, primarily due to their impressive home form and Cyle Larin’s goal-scoring streak at St Mary’s Stadium. While both teams have identical win-loss records, the Saints have ended the season strongly at home, while Middlesbrough have struggled on the road. Key injuries for both teams are noted, but Southampton’s attacking value is highlighted, especially with Larin to score. The recommendation is for a Southampton home win with Larin as a key threat.
- Southampton have one of the Championship's best home records
- Cyle Larin has scored 5 goals in his last 6 starts in the league
- Larin can fire the Saints to a Championship play-off victory
Southampton vs Middlesbrough Preview
Southampton beat some tough opponents at home late in the 2025/26 season and Cyle Larin scores a lot at St Mary’s. Middlesbrough concede plenty on the road and Larin can find the net in a Championship play-off home win.
- Southampton vs Middlesbrough Preview
- 3 Goals in 3 for Cyle Larin
- H2H - Saints Advantage
- Southampton Win a Lot at St Mary’s
- Middlesbrough Unconvincing Away in the Championship
- Predicted Starting Lineups & Team News
3 Goals in 3 for Cyle Larin
- Southampton have won 6 of their last 8 home games.
- Southampton’s Cyle Larin has scored 3 goals in his last 3 home matches.
- Southampton have won 2 of their last 4 home games against Middlesbrough.
| 2025/26 Championship | Southampton | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Current Position | 4th | 5th |
| Wins | 22 | 22 |
| Draws | 14 | 14 |
| Losses | 10 | 10 |
| Goals Scored (pg) | 82 (1.78) | 72 (1.56) |
| Goals Conceded (pg) | 56 (1.22) | 47 (1.02) |
H2H - Saints Advantage
Southampton have a 25-19 advantage against Middlesbrough, alongside 18 draws.
Southampton Win a Lot at St Mary’s
Tonda Eckert’s Southampton ended the Championship campaign as one of the most in-form home sides. The Saints took a league high 24 points from their final 10 home matches.
Southampton were on a six-match winning streak at home, with just two goals conceded. The south coast side also beat Premier League side Arsenal 2-1 during that run.
Eckert’s team drew 2-2 in their last two home games of the season against Bristol City and Ipswich before a 3-1 win at Preston. Cyle Larin found the net in all three matches.
The Saints played out a 0-0 draw at Middlesbrough in the Championship play-off semi-final first leg. Southampton had six shots and 37% possession but couldn't score the winner.
Middlesbrough Unconvincing Away in the Championship
Middlesbrough have struggled in the latter stages of the Championship season, with just two wins in their last 11 matches.
The Teesside outfit haven't won an away games since early March and drew their last four on the road. Boro were held to a 0-0 draw at Blackburn before 2-2 stalemates at Swansea, Ipswich and Wrexham.
Kim Helberg’s side continued their patchy form after a goalless draw against Southampton on Saturday. Boro were wasteful with 1.82 XG and six shots on target.
Predicted Starting Lineups & Team News
Southampton (4-2-3-1): Daniel Peretz; James Bree, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Nathan Wood, Ryan Manning; Shea Charles, Caspar Jander; Tom Fellows, Finn Azaz, Leo Scienza; Cyle Larin
Defender Jack Stephens is doubtful following a calf injury.
Goalkeeper Alex McCarthy is unavailable with a wrist problem. Defender Mads Roerslev is ruled out with an ACL injury.
Middlesbrough (3-4-2-1): Solomon Brynn; Luke Ayling, Dael Fry, Adilson Malanda; Callum Brittain, Aidan Morris, Alan Browne, Matt Targett; Morgan Whittaker, Tommy Conway; David Strelec
Defensive duo Alfie Jones and Darragh Lenihan have long-term injrueis and won’t feature.
Hayden Hackney could return to the squad for the Southampton game. Kim Helberg provided a positive update on the midfielder’s recovery and said, “He's been doing his fitness, so as soon as he's back on the grass it's possible to start a game, that's not the thing.”
“It's a balance, how quickly coming back to being on there [the pitch].”
Verdict
Southampton are a good home side and Cyle Larin knows how to score at St Mary’s. There’s value on Larin goals in a Saints home win against unconvincing Middlesbrough.
Southampton Win
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