Australia vs Italy Betting Tips - Wallabies to finally win in Nations Championship
Australia faces Italy in the Nations Championship after both teams suffered back-to-back losses in their opening matches. Historically, Australia has dominated Italy at home, winning eight consecutive matches and leading the all-time head-to-head 18-2. Despite Italy’s win in Rome last year, they have struggled away and are last in their group. Australia is backed to cover the -16.5 handicap with a stronger squad and home advantage. Expect a determined Wallabies performance aiming for their first win of the tournament.
- Australia has never lost at home to Italy in rugby.
- Both teams come off two straight Nations Championship losses.
- Australia is tipped to cover the -16.5 handicap due to their dominant home record.
Australia have lost their opening two games of the Nations Championship, as has their opponents, Italy. I am backing the Aussies to cover here despite losing to the Italians in Rome last year.
- Key Stats - Australia have never lost at Home to Italy
- Dominant Aussies
- Australia Desperate to Win
- Italy Showing Form but Not Enough Quality
- Australia vs Italy Squads
Key Stats - Australia have never lost at Home to Italy
- Australia have won 3 of last 5 matches against Italy.
- Australia have won 8 home games in a row against Italy.
- Italy have lost 5 of their last 6 fixtures.
Dominant Aussies
Australia and Italy have met 20 times with Australia leading 18-2. Italy did win their last meeting back in November 2025, but that victory was in Rome.
Australia Desperate to Win
Australia succumbed to their second consecutive defeat in the 2026 Nations Championship last weekend, losing 42-26 at home to France after leading 21-12 at the break.
Before that, Australia took on Ireland in their opening match, losing 33-31 to the Irish at home.
The Wallabies are in fifth place in the Southern Hemisphere table with three points from two games.
Australia will be disappointed to have let a first-half lead slip in their previous match, but will aim to bounce back against Italy, having often defeated their opponents on home soil.
Italy Showing Form but Not Enough Quality
Italy had no answer in their Nations Championship match against New Zealand last weekend, losing 47-17 away from home after trailing 14-10 at half-time.
Before that performance, the Azzurri lost their opening match against Japan, going down 27-10 away from home.
The Italians are last in the Northern Hemisphere standings with no points from two matches.
Italy have yet to get going in the Nations Championship, but have had success against Australia recently; however, they have not won in Australia, losing eight in a row to their opponents.
Australia vs Italy Squads
Australia
Forwards: Josh Nasser, Brandon Paenga-Amosa, Billy Pollard, Allan Alaalatoa, Angus Bell, Zane Nonggorr, Aidan Ross, James Slipper, Taniela Tupou, Miles Amatosero, Josh Canham, Lachlan Shaw, Jeremy Williams, Charlie Cale, Nick Champion de Crespigny, Tom Hooper, Fraser McReight, Carlo Tizzano, Rob Valetini, Harry Wilson
Backs: Ryan Lonergan, Tate McDermott, Kalani Thomas, Ben Donaldson, Carter Gordon, Declan Meredith, Josh Flook, Len Ikitau, Hunter Paisami, Joseph Sua'ali'i, Filipo Daugunu, Max Jorgensen, Dylan Pietsch, Harry Potter, Corey Toole, Jock Campbell, Tom Wright
Italy
Forwards: Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, Pablo Dimcheff, Gianmarco Lucchesi, Danilo Fischetti, Muhamed Hasa, Ion Neculai, Marco Riccioni, Mirco Spagnolo, Niccolò Cannone, Riccardo Favretto, Alessandro Ortombina, Federico Ruzza, Andrea Zambonin, Lorenzo Cannone, Michele Lamaro, Giulio Marini, David Odiase, Ross Vintcent
Backs: Alessandro Fusco, Alessandro Garbisi, Stephen Varney, Tommaso Allan, Giacomo Da Re, Paolo Garbisi, Giulio Bertaccini, Ignacio Brex, Leonardo Marin, Tommaso Menoncello, Malik Faissal, Monty Ioane, Louis Lynagh, Paolo Odogwu, Lorenzo Pani
Verdict
Australia have often defeated Italy at home and are tipped to cover the -16.5 handicap in their Nations Championship match this weekend.
Australia -16.5
Handicap
@10/11 - 3 Units
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