Italy vs South Africa Betting Tips - Italy can to cover in Nations Championship against South Africa
Italy are tipped to cover the +28.5 handicap against South Africa in their upcoming Nations Championship fixture. Although Italy have struggled in 2026, they have achieved notable home wins over Scotland and England in the Six Nations and pushed Ireland close in Dublin. South Africa have a dominant record against Italy, winning 18 of the last 19 meetings, and are fielding their strongest available side as they look to maintain their lead in the tournament. Italy’s competitive home form supports the selection, despite South Africa’s overall superiority.
- Italy are tipped to cover the +28.5 handicap against South Africa.
- Italy have shown strong home form, beating Scotland and England recently.
- South Africa have dominated the fixture but Italy are more competitive at home.
Italy have not had a good 2026 but they did achieve some notable results at home in the Six Nations. They are generally quite competitive at home, so while I do not see a victory, I do fancy them on the +28.5 handicap.
- Springboks Dominant
- Italy Solid at Home, Struggles on the Road
- South Africa Looking to maintain Top Spot
- Italy vs South Africa Starting Lineups
- Italy have lost their last 4 matches.
- Italy have conceded 57 & 47 points in their last 2 matches.
- South Africa have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
- South Africa have won 18 of their last 19 matches against Italy.
Springboks Dominant
Italy have only managed one win in 19 matches against South Africa.
Italy Solid at Home, Struggles on the Road
Italy have been very solid for the last four or five years, regularly getting strong results against more fancied sides. 2026 has been one of their poorer years recently, despite still gaining a few good wins.
During the 2025 Six Nations, Italy defeated Scotland and England on home soil while they ran Ireland very close in Dublin. They, however, lost to Wales and expectedly, to France.
In the Nations Championship though, Italy lost 27-10 to Japan, 47-17 to New Zealand and 57-10 to Australia. Those games were all away from home where Italy have always struggled to get results.
South Africa Looking to maintain Top Spot
South Africa currently lead the Nations Championship Southern Hemisphere table, ahead of New Zealand on points difference. The Springboks are the current favourites to win the tournament but they have a tougher Northern Hemisphere tour that their All Black counterparts.
This weekend is a must-win for the Boks who will also want to increase their points difference while the All Blacks face Scotland. In the following two weeks, South Africa clash with France and Ireland - two huge games for the tournament and in the lead-up to the 2027 Rugby World Cup.
The Springboks beat New Zealand 3-1 in the Greatest Rivalry tour earlier this year while they also defeated England, Scotland and Wales in the Nations Championship. However, in their last outing, the South Africans lost 42-38 to Australia in Perth with what was largely a second-string side.
Italy vs South Africa Starting Lineups
Rassie Erasmus may have taken six uncapped players on tour but none of them are featuring this weekend. The two-time Rugby World Cup winner has opted for his strongest available side to gain some momentum ahead of the two big matches.
Italy: 15 Mirko Belloni, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Paolo Odogwu, 12 Leonardo Marin, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Samuele Locatelli, 6 Alessandro Ortombina, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera (captain), 1 Muhamed Hasa.
Replacements: 16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Danilo Fischetti, 18 Ion Neculai, 19 Enoch Opoku Gyamfi, 20 Ross Vintcent, 21 Manuel Zuliani, 22 Stephen Varney, 23 Tommaso Allan.
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Salmaan Moerat, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Cameron Hanekom, 21 Paul de Villiers, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok
Verdict
While we fancy a comfortable South African win, we feel Italy will get withing the 28.5 handicap that is currently set, particularly at home.
Italy +28.5
Handicap
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Ralph is from South Africa and studied Sports Science post school at ETA (Education Teachers Academy) in Cape Town.
He has always had a great passion for sport and this led him into the world of sports journalism, while coaching on the side.
Since 2012 Ralph has worked as a journalist and covered many topics from business to sport.
Over the last decade and more, he has interviewed numerous top rugby and cricket players and coaches in South Africa.
You can follow Ralph on LinkedIn and Muckrack and find him featured on Mzansiwins, Bets.co.za and Cape Media Corporation.
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