Scotland vs New Zealand Betting Tips - Scotland can upset the odds against All Blacks in Nations Championship
Scotland host New Zealand at Murrayfield, with the main tip being Scotland +10.5 on the handicap. The Scots have lost their last four matches against the All Blacks by 10 points or fewer, indicating the 10.5-point line may be generous. New Zealand remain unbeaten in 33 meetings with Scotland, but the hosts have shown strong recent form, including a solid Six Nations and competitive performances in the Nations Championship. Both teams have named strong line-ups, and while a Scotland win is possible, the handicap is considered the safer selection.
- Scotland +10.5 is tipped on the handicap against New Zealand.
- Scotland have lost their last four matches to the All Blacks by 10 points or fewer.
- New Zealand have never lost to Scotland in 33 meetings.
New Zealand have steadily improved under Dave Rennie in 2026 but Scotland will not be easy at Murrayfield. The 10.5 handicap feels a bit high given the Scots have lost their last four games within that margin to the All Blacks.
- Key Stats - Scotland Solid in 2026
- All Blacks have Never lost to Scotland
- Scotland very Good Six Nations in 2026
- New Zealand Improving under Rennie
- Scotland vs New Zealand Starting Lineups
Key Stats - Scotland Solid in 2026
- Scotland have won 2 of their last 3 matches.
- Scotland won 3 of their 5 matches in the 2025 Six Nations.
- New Zealand have won 31 of their 33 matches against Scotland.
- New Zealand failed to beat Scotland by more than 10 points in their last 4 encounters.
- New Zealand have won their last 2 matches.
All Blacks have Never lost to Scotland
New Zealand lead 31-0 in 33 matches against Scotland with two draws.
Scotland very Good Six Nations in 2026
Scotland actually had a very good Six Nations but will be kicking themselves for a couple of poor performances. Going into the final round, the Scots were still in the running for the title.
The Six Nations began poorly for the Scots as they lost 18-15 to Italy in Rome before bouncing back to beat England at home and Wales away. They made it three wins on the spin with a sublime performance at home to beat France 50-40 before losing 43-21 to Ireland in the final round.
In the Nations Championship, Scotland were brilliant in their 47-38 win in Argentina before seeing off Fiji 33-17. Scotland then lost 42-28 to South Africa in what was a very competitive match for large periods.
New Zealand Improving under Rennie
The mighty All Blacks are back...or at least there are signs that they are on their way back after a poor and inconsistent spell under Scott Robertson.
During the Nations Championship, New Zealand narrowly escaped with a 34-32 home win over France before overcoming a tough first half to beat Italy 47-17. They concluded the home leg of the Nations Championship with a 40-21 victory over Ireland.
That was followed by the Greatest Rivalry Tour of South Africa where they won all four provincial games and beat the Springboks in the first test. However, the world champions bounced back to win three in a row and secure the series 3-1.
This was followed by two tests against Australia for the Bledisloe Cup. The All Blacks comfortably won both matches against the Wallabies, both home and away.
Scotland vs New Zealand Starting Lineups
Scotland: 15 Kyle Rowe, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu (Captain), 11 Jamie Dobie, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Matt Fagerson, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Gregor Brown, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Ewan Ashman, 1 Rory Sutherland.
Replacements: 16 Gregor Hiddleston, 17 Pierre Schoeman, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Max Williamson, 20 Josh Bayliss, 21 George Horne, 22 Tom Jordan, 23 Blair Kinghorn.
New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Peter Lakai, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacement: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 George Bower, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Christian Lio-Willie, 20 Anton Segner, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Timoci Tavatavanawai, 23 Rieko Ioane.
Verdict
Scotland have pushed New Zealand close in their last four encounters and can certainly get their first-ever win if things go their way. However, with the handicap at 10.5, I am backing the Scots on the safer side.
Scotland +10.5
Handicap
@10/11 - 5 Units
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Scotland Win
Result
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Ralph is from South Africa and studied Sports Science post school at ETA (Education Teachers Academy) in Cape Town.
He has always had a great passion for sport and this led him into the world of sports journalism, while coaching on the side.
Since 2012 Ralph has worked as a journalist and covered many topics from business to sport.
Over the last decade and more, he has interviewed numerous top rugby and cricket players and coaches in South Africa.
You can follow Ralph on LinkedIn and Muckrack and find him featured on Mzansiwins, Bets.co.za and Cape Media Corporation.
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