South Africa vs New Zealand 1st Test Betting Tips - Tight contest expected at Ellis Park in first Test between Springboks and All Blacks
South Africa enters as favourites over New Zealand, riding a dominant 12-match unbeaten streak and top world ranking. However, limited match practice could leave the Springboks undercooked, while New Zealand boasts better preparation, including six recent wins and returning stars. Both teams have key players lacking recent game time, suggesting a tightly fought Test at Ellis Park. The recommendation is to back New Zealand on the +7.5 handicap for value, with an outside shot at an upset victory.
- South Africa on a 12-match winning streak, but less recent game time.
- New Zealand well-prepared, with key players returning and 6 straight wins.
- Prediction: A close contest; NZ a value pick on +7.5 handicap, possible upset.
South Africa are favourites at home against the All Blacks but they have had less rugby. If New Zealand are to compete on this tour, one would imagine they would target the first Test. I can see this being very close with the All Blacks getting within a score.
- Key Stats - South Africa Unbeaten in 12
- New Zealand Lead, Springboks Dominant of Late
- South Africa World's Best
- New Zealand in Solid Form Under Rennie
- Kolisi Misses Out, Savea Returns
Key Stats - South Africa Unbeaten in 12
- South Africa have won their last 12 matches.
- South Africa have won 5 of their last 6 matches against New Zealand.
- South Africa beat New Zealand 43-10 in their last encounter.
- New Zealand have won their last 6 matches (including 3 warmup games)
New Zealand Lead, Springboks Dominant of Late
New Zealand have the overall win record against South Africa but in more recent times, South Africa have dominated, winning five of their last six against the All Blacks.
South Africa World's Best
The Springboks are on a 12-match unbeaten run currently and sit comfortably at the top of the world rankings. They are also two-time defending world champions and favourites to win the 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia.
However, the green and gold may be slightly undercooked having just played one warmup game ahead of this tour. That fixture in Argentina also saw Rassie Erasmus opt to give players some game time that had returned from injuries after months on the sideline - the performance was very rusty, as expected as they won 17-10.
During the Nations Championship earlier this year, the Bokke cruised past England and Wales while Scotland put up much more of a fight. It must be said that Erasmus changed his team plenty, giving young players a chance as well, so it is hard to say what the Springboks are like at full strength currently.
New Zealand in Solid Form Under Rennie
Dave Rennie will be pleased with the start he has made to his coaching tenure at the All Blacks. Three Nations Championship wins in July, followed by comfortable wins against the South Africa URC franchises.
There were always going to be teething problems for the All Blacks, and there certainly was as they struggled past an under strength French side, only put Italy away in the final quarter before a good performance to beat Ireland.
The Stormers and Bulls have shown some fight in the warmup games as well, giving the All Blacks a decent contest, but without their star players, the franchises were always going to struggle. Nevertheless, New Zealand will benefit immensely from those minutes and may just have the edge in terms of preparation heading in Ellis Park on Saturday.
Kolisi Misses Out, Savea Returns
Siya Kolisi is fit but Rassie Erasmus has not added him to the squad for Saturday, instead preferring in-form Paul de Villiers. Sacha-Feinberg Mngomezulu starts at flyhalf with Libbok on the bench - there is no Pollard in the squad.
For New Zealand, Savea, Roigard and Jordan start despite not playing a minute of the warmup games on tour. Both sides have plenty fo quality but also big players who lack minutes in recent weeks. It could be a deciding factor.
Verdict
I am backing New Zealand on the +7.5 handicap, and if they are that close, it may be worth a small layout on an upset win at Ellis Park.
New Zealand +7.5
Handicap
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New Zealand Win
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He has always had a great passion for sport and this led him into the world of sports journalism, while coaching on the side. Since 2012 Ralph has worked as a journalist and covered many topics from business to sport.
Over the last seven years he has interviewed numerous top rugby and cricket players and coaches in South Africa.
Ralph has been betting on sports for the last ten years. He’s knowledgeable on numerous topics including football, rugby, cricket, tennis and golf.
He supports Manchester United (football), Cheetahs (rugby), Knights (cricket) and has a newly found appreciation for Dominic Thiem on the tennis courts.
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