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Melbourne United vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL Betting Tips - Phoenix to warm up for finals with win

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Ryan Tucker
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Last updated: Tue 17 Feb 2026 08:59
South East Melbourne Phoenix is geared up to face Melbourne United in the final match of the NBL regular season, with a potential top two finish on the line. SEM stands out as the top scoring team and hopes to leverage strong performances from players like Angus Glover and Nathan Sobey. Meanwhile, Melbourne United grapples with a lingering form slump and must counter SEM's pace. With both teams having strong motivations, this contest promises basketball fans an exciting showdown.
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Ryan Tucker 17 Feb 2026
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  • Melbourne United vs South East Melbourne Phoenix expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 22 NBL matchup
  • SE Melbourne Phoenix aims for a top 2 NBL finish
  • Melbourne United struggles with recent form slump
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sobey phoenix
Nathan Sobey points are backed (Getty Images)

Melbourne United vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Preview


South East Melbourne can still finish in the top two in the NBL and can get the win they need in this final match of the regular season. Back them to cover the -4.5 line with Angus Glover and Nathan Sobey taken in the props markets.

  • SE Melbourne are the top scoring team in the league, averaging 101 pts per game. They are also 17-6 as the favourite. 
  • Melbourne have shown in the second half of the season that they struggle slowing down the pace of teams like SEM and Illawarra.
  • Angus Glover played extended minutes in the most recent blowout win over Melbourne and has done so in most of the blowouts this season. 
  • Nathan Sobey is averaging 10.2 threes per game over his last 5 matchups and converting at a 34.4% rate on the season.

Melbourne United Slump Still Lingering


Melbourne United chalked up another loss in their most recent game, 100-91 against the Illawarra Hawks. That takes their record to 1-3 over the last three rounds of competition. 

There is no doubt that United’s form slump that has marred them since the international break, is still lingering.

Melbourne allowed Illawarra to score 100 points despite being the top scoring defence in the league since round 16, they forced 18 turnovers and held their opponent to just 67 FGAs but were not able to capitalise on the extra possessions, shooting just 36.3% from the field. 

It is looking increasingly likely that Melbourne’s finals run will be a flash in the pan, but first they will need to contend with a Phoenix team that play at a higher pace and are better shooters than Illawarra.

South East Melbourne Phoenix Searching For Second Spot


The Phoenix put a poor showing against Sydney in Round 20 behind them last weekend, demolishing the Tasmania JackJumpers 120-104 to keep their hopes of a top two finish alive heading into the final round of competition.

SEM scored 30+ pts in three of four quarters against the league’s best scoring defence and took over top spot in Points Per game, elevating to 101 across the span of the season.

What is so special about this team is that it is not one single person they need to rely on. Sometimes it's Nathan Sobey, sometimes it's Owen Foxwell or John Brown, or even like in their most recent win, Angus Glover with 21 pts off the bench.

Verdict

Take South East Melbourne to win and cover the -4.5 line, giving them a shot at finishing top 2. The 1st quarter line of -1.5 is also juicy.
Best Bet1: SE Melbourne -4.5 Line @9/10 at Hollywood bets - 3 Units
Best Bet2: SE Melbourne -1.5 1st Qtr Line @9/10 at bet365 - 2 Units
Best Bet3: A Glover 10+ Player Points @7/9 at Star Sports - 2 Units
Best Bet4: N Sobey 3+ Threes made @5/7 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
SE Melbourne -4.5
Line
@9/10 - 3 Units
£30 Free Bet
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SE Melbourne -1.5
1st Qtr Line
@9/10 - 2 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

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Bet at bet365
A Glover 10+
Player Points
@7/9 - 2 Units
Bet £20 Get £10
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18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org

Bet at Star Sports
N Sobey 3+
Threes made
@5/7 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
Use promo code NEWBONUS

Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.

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