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Ajax vs Atalanta Predictions & Betting Tips - High Scoring Game Expected in the Conference League

matthew-marshall
Matthew Marshall
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Last updated: Wed 21 Oct 2026 09:58
Ajax and Atalanta both enter their Serie A / Conference League clash with defensive struggles and a tendency for high-scoring matches. Ajax are often involved in goal-filled games, and Atalanta have lost four of their last five league outings. Both sides are leaking goals, with key stats pointing to BTTS (Both Teams To Score) and over 3.5 total goals as strong betting recommendations. The article advises skipping the win/loss market in favor of betting on goals, with BTTS and over 3.5 goals standing out as the best value options.
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  • Ajax are regularly involved in high scoring games
  • Atalanta have lost 4 of their last 5 games in Serie A
  • I am expecting goals at both ends in Amsterdam
Ajax Atalanta
Ajax last met Atalanta in 2020 (Getty)

Ajax and Atalanta have problems keeping clean sheets which means BTTS is my best bet here. I would be no surprise to see a shootout result in over 3.5 goals.

Key Stats


  • Ajax have seen BTTS in 11 of their last 12 matches.
  • Ajax have seen over 3.5 goals in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • Atalanta have seen BTTS in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Atalanta have seen over 3.5 goals in their last 3 matches.

HTH


These clubs have met twice, in the 2020/21 Champions League group stage. Ajax earned a 2-2 draw in Italy before going down 1-0 in Amsterdam.

Ajax Inconsistent


Ajax have kept only two clean sheets this season, the Dutch side regularly involved in high scoring games.

Michel’s side have fallen behind in the Eredivisie title race, going into the international break with a 2-2 against Excelsior and returning with a 1-1 draw against Nijmegen.

The Amsterdam club had a disappointing start in the Conference League. Once again their defensive frailties were exposed, beaten 2-1 by Hajduk Split in Croatia.

Julian Brandt and Jorthy Mokio scored two goals each in a 5-2 win at Groningen on Sunday, ending the contest with 3.08-2.36 xG.

Atalanta in Poor Form


Atalanta flattered to deceive in their opening four matches of the season and it has caught up with them, losing four of their previous six games.

Maurizio Sarri’s side lost against Roma, Cagliari and Juventus to prove where they belong in Serie A. They were fortunate to beat Venezia 3-1, registering 36% possession and 2.19-2.48 xG.

The Bergamo club beat Pafos 3-1 in the Conference League, scoring all three goals in the first half.

Atalanta found themselves 3-0 down at AC Milan on Sunday. Gianluca Gaetano and Nikola Krstovic scored to reduce the deficit but it wasn’t enough, going down 3-2 at San Siro.

Verdict

Ajax are the favourites here but Atalanta have a superior squad and are capable of scoring goals in Amsterdam. I am avoiding the win markets here and turning to goals.

Best Bet1: BTTS Yes BTTS @11/20 at bet365 - 5 Units
Best Bet2: BTTS Yes & Over 2.5 BTTS & Total Goals @9/10 at dabble - 3 Units
Best Bet3: BTTS Yes & Over 3.5 BTTS & Total Goals @17/10 at Star Sports - 2 Units
BTTS Yes
BTTS
@11/20 - 5 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

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Bet at bet365
BTTS Yes & Over 2.5
BTTS & Total Goals
@9/10 - 3 Units
Bet £10 Get £10
Promo Code: NEWBONUS

New customers only. Bet £10+ to receive £10 in Free Bets. 7-day free bet expiry. Stake not returned. Promotional Terms Apply. 18+. GambleAware.org

Bet at dabble
BTTS Yes & Over 3.5
BTTS & Total Goals
@17/10 - 2 Units
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS

18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org

Bet at Star Sports
matthew-marshall
Matthew Marshall

Football & Tennis Editor/Writer • Portuguese Football Expert, ATP Tour Tennis Writer

Matthew Marshall is an Australian who worked in a number of industries before combining his love of football and media communications degree to become a sports journalist. Now living in Portugal, he is a Portuguese football expert at PortuGOAL and has covered multiple UEFA U21 European Championships, the 2022 and 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2024 European Championship.


Recent Tipping Results:


2025/26 Liga Portugal
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