Six Nations Final Round Permutations - France remain favourites while Scotland and Ireland lurk in the shadows
The final round of the 2026 Six Nations promises intense competition as France, Ireland, and Scotland vie for the title. Despite being favorites, France faces the challenge of playing England, especially after their recent loss to Scotland. Ireland, sitting on 14 points, must defeat Scotland and hope for a France loss to secure victory. Scotland seeks their maiden title but faces a daunting task against Ireland in Dublin. England, although out of the title race after a shock loss to Italy, could still disrupt France's bid with a win.
- France, Ireland, and Scotland are in contention for the 2026 Six Nations title.
- France leads but must beat England; Ireland and Scotland need to win and hope for favorable results.
- England and Wales are out of title contention, but results could still impact standings.
The final round of the 2026 Six Nations is set to be an absolute cracker, perhaps the best we've seen in a decade. Three teams are in the running for the title, and while France remain favourites, if England can upset the odds in Saint-Denis, Ireland and Scotland could pounce.
The matches will all take place on Saturday, 14 March, though, at different timeslots.
France could have easily wrapped up the title last weekend but Scotland produced a stunning display at Murrayfield to keep themselves in the mix. Ireland have stuttered along to this point but somehow, despite three relatively poor performances and one very good one (vs England), they remain in the hunt.
Unfortunately for England, their first-ever loss to Italy last Saturday put and end to their very faint hopes of challenging.
Before we go any further, let's take a look at the table as it currently stands:
| Position | Team | P | W | D | L | PD | B | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 79 | 4 | 16 |
| 2 | Scotland | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Ireland | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -24 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | England | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Wales | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -96 | 1 | 1 |
The first thing to obviously focus on is the points where France and Scotland are level on 16 but France have a far superior points difference. In the Six Nations, points difference is the first option to decide tied teams before tries scored and then head-to-head.
Ireland are on 14 points, two points off France and also have a vastly inferior points difference. So, for France, a win is enough if Ireland beat or draw against Scotland. A bonus point win all but secures France the title.
Ireland, on 14 points, are at home to Scotland, so a victory will be enough to win the title if France lose and fail to pick up two bonus points. Scotland simply has to better the French result, but historically, the Scots do not fare well in Dublin - although this year many historical results have been thrown out of the window.
France have the upper hand throughout though. They need to win, with a bonus point if Scotland win with a bonus point in Dublin, and to add to their fortune, France vs England is the late kick off, so they will know exactly what is required by the start of the game.
Let's take a brief look at the fixtures:
Ireland vs Scotland
Saturday, 14 March @ 14:10 GMT
Aviva Stadium, Dublin
This is going to be a titanic battle between two teams still in with a shout at the title. Ireland have been far from their best but that one incredible performance against England has kept them in the hunt. What was give Scotland hope is how the Irish have stuttered against Italy and Wales in recent weeks.
History does not favour Scotland. They have lost their last 11 matches against Ireland; their last win came back in 2017 at Murrayfield. The Scots last win in Dublin came back in 2010, at Croke Park, a year before the Aviva Stadium was opened.
However, Ireland are not playing well and Scotland were superb against France on Saturday. This game being in Dublin does make it that extra bit difficult, but to win their first-ever Six Nations title, Scotland were never going to have it easy.
Wales vs Italy
Saturday, 14 March 2026 @ 16:40 GMT
Principality Stadium, Cardiff
We are not going to focus much on this game as it has no bearing on the title. Wales will, however, be desperate for a result after two promising displays against Ireland and Scotland. However, Italy, who have beaten both Scotland and England during the Six Nations, will want to end on a high.
France vs England
Saturday, 14 March @ 20:10 GMT
Stade de France, Saint-Denis
Prior to the start of the tournament, everyone had their eyes on this fixture as the title decider in the final round. Things have not gone according to play since then, particularly for England who have lost to Scotland, Ireland and Italy on the bounce after beating Wales in the opening round.
After that opening round win against Wales, England were on a 12-match winning streak and being spoken about as possible champions - if they could overcome France away from home. Well, since then, the English form has crashed from a cliff while France have taken advantage, although not without their own signs of trouble.
The best England can now hope for is to get some confidence back and spoil the French celebrations. While it has been a disappointing run, a win in France will certainly reignite the idea that England will be a contender come the 2027 Rugby World Cup.
France on the other hand has mostly cruised, thrashing Ireland, Wales and Italy in their opening three games. But, last week's 50-40 loss to Scotland brought the French crashing back down to earth, leaving three possible winners in the final round.
Scotland fortunately sat back in the final 15 minutes on Saturday, allowing the French to fight back to withing 10 points, scoring a four-try bonus point in the meantime. That point could prove very crucial come the final whistle in Saint-Denis.
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