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South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers NBL Betting Tips - Phoenix to level the semi-final series

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Ryan Tucker
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Last updated: Fri 13 Mar 2026 17:24
In the NBL semi-final showdown, SE Melbourne Phoenix is focused on overcoming their Game 1 setback against Adelaide 36ers. While their three-point shooting was off, the team looks to capitalize on their solid rebounding and bench strength. Nathan Sobey's record against Adelaide lends confidence as Phoenix aims to leverage their home advantage. For Adelaide, Bryce Cotton remains a formidable scorer, further bolstered by Nick Rakocevic’s critical offensive plays. The preview highlights Phoenix's potential to cover the spread, with Nathan Sobey expected to clear key point thresholds.
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Ryan Tucker 13 Mar 2026
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  • SE Melbourne Phoenix aims for a comeback at home after Game 1 loss.
  • Three-point shooting and defensive strategies need attention.
  • Adelaide excels in transitioning offense and maintaining momentum.
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sobey phoenix
Nathan Sobey to lead Phoenix to victory (Getty Images)

South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers Preview


South East Melbourne Phoenix suffered a seven-point loss in Game 1 but can level the NBL semi-final with a bounce back win at home. Nathan Sobey and Ian Clark should be improved and can shoot Phoenix to victory to set up a decider.

  • SEM shot just 27.9% from 3pt range in Game 1, way down compared to their season average of 35.1%.
  • Adelaide ranked 6th in Turnover % in all road games this season.
  • Nathan Sobey has career averages of 19.4 points and 4.6 assists per game against Adelaide, the most against any opponent.
  • Sobey has cleared this PRA line in three straight games 

South East Melbourne Phoenix Suffer From Three-Point Shooting


SE Melbourne didn’t do a lot wrong in their first semi-final but they still ended up losing 104-97 on the road in Adelaide. They protected the ball, won the rebounding and the battle of the benches. 

Their three point shooting and their defensive lapses on Bryce Cotton were the deciding factors. They nailed just 12 of 43 shots from distance with Nathan Sobey and Ian Clark going a combined 4-21 from outside the arc.

Cotton was allowed to pretty much get what he wanted and he shot a tidy game. The Phoenix need to find a solution to at least slow the best scorer in the league down.

Adelaide 36ers Hold The Semi-Final Advantage


Adelaide started the first semi as the underdogs at home but they were able to turn the tables in the first half and take a two point lead into the major break. 

They forced the Phoenix into uncomfortable shots from three point range while Bryce Cotton ran amok in the paint.

Nick Rakocevic was clutch, grabbing 6 offensive rebounds at key times in the match to give the 36ers more chances to score the ball and hold critical momentum.

Zylan Cheatham had three turnovers on five assists but did help with 13 points and nine boards in the game.

Verdict

Take SEM to win and cover the 4.5 point line as home favourites with Nathan Sobey to clear 21.5 pts and 32.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists.
Best Bet1: SE Melbourne -4.5 Line @7/8 at Hollywood bets - 3 Units
Best Bet2: N Sobey over 21.5 Player Points @7/8 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet3: N Sobey over 32.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists @4/5 at Star Sports - 3 Units
SE Melbourne -4.5
Line
@7/8 - 3 Units
£30 Free Bet
Use promo code NEWBONUS

Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.

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N Sobey over 21.5
Player Points
@7/8 - 3 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

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Bet at bet365
N Sobey over 32.5
Points, Rebounds & Assists
@4/5 - 3 Units
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS

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Bet at Star Sports

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