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South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Tasmania JackJumpers NBL Betting Tips - Sobey three pointers backed

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
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Last updated: Thu 12 Feb 2026 20:12
As the South East Melbourne Phoenix aim to clinch the top spot, they face a resilient Tasmania JackJumpers team defying odds despite an injury crisis. Recent encounters have seen close scores, and experts expect a low-scoring match. The Phoenix’s dependency on three-point shooting could be their downfall, considering their recent form. Meanwhile, the JackJumpers are motivated to secure their playoff position with impressive performances from lesser-known players, such as Nick Marshall. The match is predicted to remain under 188.5 points, with Tasmania covering the 12.5-point spread.
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Jeremy Darke 12 Feb 2026
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  • South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Tasmania JackJumpers expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 21 NBL matchup
  • JackJumpers battling injuries but showing resilience
  • Match expected to stay under 188.5 points, close score likely
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nathan sobey
Nathan Sobey can hit the threes (Getty Images)

South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Tasmania JackJumpers Preview


South East Melbourne are still chasing top spot but and will need a wide margin win to stay in the hunt. But the JackJumpers have been given a big start and can keep this one close and cover the line in a low-scoring game.

  • The JackJumpers have won their last 2 matches this season against the Phoenix, while losing the first encounter of NBL26 by just 1 point. 
  • The last 2 matches between Tasmania and S.E.M have had totals of just 171 & 170 points
  • Nick Marshall hit 7-8 three point attempts in his last match.
  • Nathan Sobey has hit 3+ threes in 8 of his last 11 matches.

South East Melbourne Phoenix Still Hunting For Top Spot


The Phoenix came out second-best in their top of the table clash with Sydney on Sunday, suffering their biggest defeat of the season when they went down to the Kings by 26 points. 

It feels like we are on repeat here, but South East Melbourne live and die by the three-ball and shooting at 20.0 3P% against Sydney certainly put the fork in them.

That was especially the case considering that they had 40 attempts from outside, 16 more than the Kings. S.E Melbourne had more chances with 19 more field goal attempts but shot at just 37.5 FG% in the match. 

Emotions were high and the moment got too big for the Phoenix, which is also a trend that pops up in the tougher contests and is a concern heading into the playoffs.

Tasmania JackJumpers Defying Injury Crisis


The JackJumpers are defying all odds at the moment despite being the walking wounded, with Scott Roth getting everything out of the next man up mentality they have going on in Tasmania.

With the losses of Will Magnay and Bryce Hamilton over the last fortnight the JackJumpers have every right to roll over, but they are clinging onto the final spot in the playoffs. 

Depending on what New Zealand do in Adelaide in the game prior to them on Saturday will determine if they still need another win to secure their sixth place finish.

One thing is for sure, they will continue to get big performances out of not so big names, just as Nick Marshall’s 31 points from 12 of 13 attempts and 7 threes in a career-best day for the Adelaide junior in the JackJumpers 114-70 victory over the Bullets in Round 20.

Verdict

Nathan Sobey is tipped to score 3+ Threes and Nick Marshal will drop two from the perimeter, however, this match is expected stay under the 188.5 game total. The JackJumpers can cover the 12.5 points as the underdog.

Best Bet1: Tasmania +12.5 Handicap/Line @10/11 at Hollywood bets - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Under 188.5 Game Total @9/10 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Nathan Sobey 3+ Three Pointers @3/5 at Star Sports - 4 Units
Best Bet4: Nick Marshall 2+ Three Pointers @4/5 at Hollywood bets - 2 Units
Tasmania +12.5
Handicap/Line
@10/11 - 2 Units
£30 Free Bet
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Bet at Hollywood bets
Under 188.5
Game Total
@9/10 - 3 Units
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Bet at bet365
Nathan Sobey
3+ Three Pointers
@3/5 - 4 Units
Bet £20 Get £10
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Bet at Star Sports
Nick Marshall
2+ Three Pointers
@4/5 - 2 Units
£30 Free Bet
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South East Melbourne Phoenix v Tasmania JackJumpers

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